Many are hoping Congress will finally move on stalled gun control legislation in the wake of the latest deadly school shooting, but the effort on Capitol Hill still faces the same kinds of hurdles that have made it impossible for decades to pass measures that make significant changes to current gun laws.
The Senate could act soon on a bill that would improve the nation’s background check system used for scrutinizing most firearms purchases, including incentives and penalties to make state government report information that could be used to block gun purchases.
But the Republican-run House is likely to oppose the measure unless it is coupled with language allowing concealed carry permit holders to legally bring their weapons to other states, which is a measure that cannot pass the Senate. The two measures were paired in legislation the House passed in December.
“It should not happen where that bill comes up by itself in the House,” Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, said, referring to the Senate bill to improve the background check system.
Jordan said most members of his faction of conservative lawmakers, the House Freedom Caucus, would oppose the standalone background check bill. GOP leaders assured them in December the two measures “would stay together.”
Opposition to a bill that leaves out reciprocity language, Jordan said, “is broader than the Freedom Caucus.”
The biggest wildcard in this equation is President Trump, who has taken a leading role on gun control and wants to pass something. Trump held a listening session with the survivors of the Broward County school shooting that left 17 people dead this month.
He’s called for legislative action, and has even tweeted out some ideas, such as raising the purchasing age to 21 for rifles. Trump could prove to be influential if a bill gets stuck in the House or Senate.
“Congress is in a mood to finally do something on this issue — I hope!” Trump tweeted last week. In the same tweet, Trump pushed for Congress to act on the Senate background check bill.
But even with Trump cheering the process on, it’s not yet clear if the Senate will be able to pass its own version.
On the surface, it should be easy in the Senate. The bill was introduced by Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn, R-Texas, and Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., and is backed by more than a dozen senators from both parties, including Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y.
The bill would nudge federal and state agencies to report all relevant information to the National Instant Criminal Background Check System, or NICS. The Fix NICS Act would provide grant incentives and penalties to improve federal and state reporting of criminal and relevant mental health history records. Two recent mass shootings may have been prevented if the system had been working.
Cornyn has the power of the Republican leadership to help steer the bill to the Senate floor, and Murphy is considered a Democratic leader on gun control matters. Murphy also told the Washington Examiner he believes he can rally his own party lawmakers behind the measure to help ensure passage, without Democrats insisting on significantly expanding the scope of background checks, which is a non-starter with Republicans.
Despite these advantages, the Fix NICS bill has languished in the Senate since it was introduced on Nov. 16.
The National Rifle Association’s opposition doesn’t appear to be the problem. The NRA backs the House bill, which pairs background checks with expanded concealed carry authority, but it is not opposed to the Cornyn-Murphy standalone version that deals only with background checks, an NRA spokeswoman told the Washington Examiner.
But another major gun rights organization, Gun Owners of America, said it won’t back the bill without the reciprocity language, and its membership has been calling and emailing the White House and lawmakers to register their opposition, stalling the measure.
The GOA, which claims 1.5 million grassroots supporters, believes the NICS list lacks due process and ends up including many people who don’t belong in the system, which could deprive them of a constitutional right to own a gun. Legislative counsel Michael Hammond told the Washington Examiner that his group sees the bill as a bribe to states to turn more names over to the NICS database, and said the group will fight hard to stop it.
He also warned of political ramifications for Republicans if it becomes law.
“Our people are going up the wall about this bill,” Hammond said. “They understand what the ramifications are. If the Republicans become the ones who deliver gun control, following eight years of failure of the Barack Obama administration, our people are not going to turn out for them in November.”
The standalone Fix NICS legislation is now parked in the Senate Judiciary Committee, run by Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa. Outside organizations that back the measure say they believe it could be considered soon in the Senate, but the bill is not scheduled for votes in the Judiciary Committee.
Judiciary held a hearing in December on the NICS reporting problems and the Cornyn-Murphy legislation.
“Our office is in discussions about the best path forward for this issue, but we likely won’t have any update until after senators return to Washington,” Judiciary Committee spokesman Taylor Foy told the Washington Examiner last week, when Congress was out for the President’s Day recess.
“Grassley is also working with several other colleagues on legislation to improve school safety, and we will provide further updates on that effort as it develops.”
Foy added that Grassley last week began probing the FBI’s response to warnings it received about the Broward County school shooter.
“We expect to receive a briefing from the FBI this week,” Foy said.
Conservatives on the Judiciary Committee panel told the Washington Examiner they are working on adding provisions to the legislation that would address due process problems that gun rights activists say plague the NICS system.
This week’s Senate schedule, meanwhile, is dedicated to clearing Trump’s judicial and Cabinet nominees, and there’s no sign of a pending gun debate on the floor.
But the issue has moved quickly in the days after the Florida shooting, and Trump has made his presence known. For that reason, some people think the dynamics could change once Congress returns to work.
Larry Keane, senior vice president of the National Shooting Sports Foundation, said the Cornyn-Murphy bill is gaining support and could end up on the floor for a vote soon thanks in part to Trump’s involvement.
“I do expect that, given the president’s apparent support for the legislation and the fact that it has broad, bipartisan support and the lead co-sponsors are Murphy and Cornyn, this legislation has the possibility to move rather quickly,” Keane said.
The foundation is based in Newtown, Conn., not far from Sandy Hook Elementary where a gunman stormed into the school in December 2012 and shot 20 young children and six adults. The foundation has been campaigning on behalf of the Fix NICS legislation since 2013.
“Any database is only as good as the information that gets put into it,” Keane said. “People are falling through the cracks that should not be able to purchase firearms.”