cost of crisis at Terminal 5

LONDON, England (CNN) — No two ways about it, it has been a catastrophic week for British Airways.

More than 400 flights have been cancelled since Terminal 5’s launch on March 27.

Since the opening of Terminal 5, BA’s new home at Heathrow on March 27, around 430 flights have been cancelled and more than 20,000 bags separated from passengers. Questions were raised in the House of Commons, the lower house of British Parliament; environmental protestors descended; and even the Olympics torch is being bypassed to more reliable port of entry when it arrives at Heathrow on Sunday.

One week on, BA says it is gaining control. But looking further ahead, does the Terminal 5 debacle spell long-term damage for the BA brand? Or is this just another, in a catalogue of troubles that the airline will overcome?

A combination of issues threw the system into chaos last week, including staff not being able to get into the car park, problems passing security areas and malfunctions in the baggage system. Some of these problems were the fault of BAA, the airport operator. But most of the blame falls to BA for its poor preparation of staff.

Commentators added more concerns including inadequate organizational structures at BAA and BA; poor management of BA’s disaffected workforce and Britain’s regrettable record of delivering major projects.

Heathrow and BA are my last choice combination and I used to be a Gold Cardholder,” says one UK aviation analyst, who asked to remain unnamed.

The problem, he adds, is that BA over promised and then failed to deliver.

One week before T5’s opening, Willie Walsh, BA’s chief executive boasted to British paper, The Sunday Times: “we have done as much as we possibly can and we are ready.” And on the morning of the launch, he marched around the gleaming new terminal promising state-of-the-art travel.

“If there had been a more measured approach, it would have been fine,” says the analyst.

But it was not. Citibank has estimated that disruptions and flight cancellations could cost British Airways up to $50 million (£25 million).

And even when T5 is at full strength, the problems will continue, says Chris Avery, airline analyst at JP Morgan. “Heathrow will remain arguably the worst of the European hub airports for punctuality and delays because of the two-runway layout rather than anything to do with terminals and infrastructure.”

Others are more hopeful. As Jamie Bowden, aviation industry expert and former BA customer service manager says, whilst the fiasco is clearly damaging in the short term, it doesn’t spell long-term harm for BA and its brand. “Anybody who has worked in the operational side of an airline knows that when you move terminals things rarely go smoothly at the outset.”

The unveiling of Denver International Airport was delayed by over a year. When it finally opened in 1995, its new automated baggage handling system had to be ripped out and replaced with the original manual system.

In Bangkok, cracks started to appear on the taxiways of the new Suvarnabhumi International Airport within weeks of its 2006 launch.

Hong Kong’s old Kai Tak airport had to remain open for an extra six months whilst the new at Chek Lap Kok Airport overcame teething problems.

And it took Madrid Barajas Airport weeks to deal with the backlog of luggage built up following opening of its Richard Rogers-designed Terminal 4 in 2006.

“Inevitably the most complex part of the transition will be the electrical and mechanical parts,” says Gareth Evans, aerospace and defense expert at A T Kearney. “But Terminal 5 was delivered on time and to budget. And whilst it’s clearly an overwhelming embarrassment now, I have no doubt that in a relatively short period of time it will be working and people will forget it.”

And business travelers will be the first to forgive and forget, says Bowden. “Business travelers are not sentimental about travel,” he points out.

Yet the timing of the debacle was not ideal. Firstly the failures have put BA and BAA in an unflattering light as they push for a third runway at Heathrow.

Terminal 5’s launch also coincides with opening of the “Open Skies” agreement, that puts an end to the exclusive arrangement granted to British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, United Airlines and American Airlines to fly transatlantic out of Heathrow.

Delta Air Lines, Continental Airlines, Northwest Airlines and Air France-KLM all began U.S. flights into Heathrow this week, heralding for many a new era in air travel.

But despite even this week’s disasters, Bowden believes BA will continue to prevail for flights across the Atlantic. “For business travelers transferring from Continental Europe through Heathrow to the States, BA will still have the best product. This is a brand new, state-of-the-art terminal and the lounges are great.

“If they fix it quickly, and by quickly I mean within two to three weeks, there is no reason why BA shouldn’t be able to take on newcomers at Heathrow.” E-mail to a friend

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