Allow me to mansplain ‘manspreading’ to you, because Hillary Clinton didn’t

If you are not as hip as Hillary Clinton, then you may have been slightly confused by her claim on CBS’s “Late Show” on Tuesday night that Russian President Vladimir Putin had a habit of “manspreading” when she would meet with him during her tenure as secretary of state.

Manwhating? Clinton didn’t provide a definition, and her demonstration wasn’t quite accurate (probably because she was trying to be somewhat tasteful).

So, please allow me to mansplain manspreading to you. (If you don’t know what mansplaining is, then you are not even as hip as Merriam-Webster.)

Manspreading does not involve splaying one’s arms, as Clinton did when talking to Stephen Colbert; a manspreading man splays his legs, while seated, to occupy as much space as possible and draw attention to his, uh, manhood.

Here’s the top definition of manspreading in the indispensable Urban Dictionary, submitted by a user who goes by “mugoloo”:

A term used by Third-Wave Feminists to describe men who spread their legs — particularly on subway trains — to make room for their genitalia. However, when women set large purses and shopping bags next to them and take up another seat, it goes unnoticed and is generally dismissed because men are disgusting pigs and penises are bad!

That’s a little bit hurtful, mugoloo.

For the record, Clinton showed she does know that manspreading is a lower-body gesture when she elaborated on her experience with Putin, in “What Happened,” the election reflection book she released last week:

President Obama once compared Vladimir Putin to a “bored kid at the back of the classroom.” “He’s got that kind of slouch,” Obama said. When I sat with Putin in meetings, he looked more like one of those guys on the subway who imperiously spreads their legs wide, encroaching on everyone else’s space, as if to say, “I take what I want” and “I have so little respect for you that I’m going to act as if I’m at home lounging in my bathrobe.” They call it “manspreading.” That was Putin.

When you think about it, manspreading helps explain two radically divergent views of the way Clinton has handled her election defeat. She writes in “What Happened” that sexism contributed to her loss, but critics at right-leaning publications such as the National Review, the Washington Examiner and the New York Post reject her premise and say that she is just making excuses and looking for discrimination where none exists.

Similarly, some men say the term manspreading is an invention of feminists with persecution complexes, and claim that the act is not an attempt to strike a dominant posture but rather an innocent effort to stay comfortable.

Here’s an alternative definition in the Urban Dictionary, supplied by “Meninistsagainstfeminists”:

Another way for women to start a big issue with men.

Of course, it is hard to dismiss manspreading as an imaginary aggression when it is accompanied by an overt display of sexism — as in Putin’s case. Clinton told Colbert about one meeting with Putin in which the Russian leader pointed to a large map and “started telling me he’s going here to tag polar bears.”

“And then he says to me, ‘Would your husband like to come?’ ” Clinton recalled.

What Putin’s legs said with subtlety, his mouth said explicitly.

California suing Trump over border wall, escalating battle with White House


The politics of California’s anti-Trump legislation

Bills passed on immigration, tax returns and censuring; reaction and analysis from the ‘Special Report’ All-Star panel

California Attorney General Xavier Becerra plans to announce Wednesday that the state will sue the Trump administration over one of President Trump’s paramount campaign promises—the border wall. 

Becerra’s lawsuit, expected to target planned projects in San Diego and Imperial counties, marks the latest shot in California’s legal and legislative war against Trump. 

The state essentially has emerged as the heart of the Trump “resistance,” pumping out lawsuits against his immigration policies and even passing a resolution Friday in the Assembly censuring Trump for his comments on the Charlottesville, Va., violence. 

The forthcoming lawsuit comes as Trump works with Congress to try and secure funding for a border wall — though the specifics of the project itself remain unclear. 

The president issued an executive order in January calling for securing the “southern border of the United States through the immediate construction of a physical wall on the southern border, monitored and supported by adequate personnel so as to prevent illegal immigration, drug and human trafficking and acts of terrorism.” 

SESSIONS BLASTS CALIF. FOR SANCTUARY STATE BILL

Last month, the administration awarded contracts to four companies to begin construction. 

The president tweeted last week that “the WALL, which is already under construction in the form of new renovation of old and existing fences and walls, will continue to be built.”

White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders underscored the president’s commitment to the border wall earlier this month. 

“I don’t think the president has been shy about the fact that he wants a wall,” Sanders said. “It’s certainly something he feels is an important part of a responsible immigration package.” 

This isn’t Becerra’s first lawsuit against the Trump administration. Just last week, Becerra joined state attorneys general from Minnesota, Maryland and Maine in filing suit against the administration over its decision to end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, arguing that the White House violated the Constitution and federal laws by rescinding the Obama-era program. 

“We will not permit Donald Trump to destroy the lives of young immigrants who make California and our country stronger,” Becerra said in a statement last week. “The court of public opinion has already spoken: the vast majority of Americans agree Dreamers should be here to stay; so now it’s time to fight in every way we can –and on multiple fronts –in the court of law.” 

But Trump has put the onus on Congress to draft legislation that would protect ‘dreamers,’ even meeting with Democratic congressional leadership last week to discuss a path forward. 

California has been firmly against most Trump administration immigration policies. The state’s legislature also passed a sanctuary state measure over the weekend and is awaiting approval by Democratic California Gov. Jerry Brown that would bolster protections for illegal immigrants in the state—a move Attorney General Jeff Sessions called “unconscionable” on Tuesday. 

“The bill risks the safety of good law enforcement officers and the safety of the neighborhoods that need their protection the most,” Sessions said during a speech in Portland, Ore., on Tuesday. “There are lives and livelihoods at stake.” 

Sessions urged Brown not to sign the law that would halt local police from cooperating with federal authorities to deport illegal immigrants. 

The Trump administration has faced significant roadblocks in efforts to crack down on jurisdictions that do not cooperate with federal immigration agents. Last week, a federal judge in Chicago ruled that Sessions could not withhold public grant money from sanctuary cities for refusing to follow federal immigration law—an option the attorney general has used to threaten states and localities who call themselves ‘sanctuaries.’

“We strive to help state and local law enforcement,” Sessions said. “But we cannot continue giving such federal grants to cities that actively undermine the safety of federal law officers and actively frustrate efforts to reduce crime.” 

Fox News’ Alex Pappas and the Associated Press contributed to this report. 

Brooke Singman is a Politics Reporter for Fox News. Follow her on Twitter at @brookefoxnews.

Cassidy-Graham bill would cut funding to 34 states, new report shows

The latest Senate Republican drive to dismantle the Affordable Care Act would sharply reduce federal spending on health insurance and cause 34 states to lose such funding, according to an analysis that details the checkerboard of winners and losers the plan would create.

The analysis by Avalere Health, a Washington-based health policy consulting firm, forecasts that federal money devoted to Medicaid and private insurance subsidies would shrink by $215 billion between 2020, when the plan would begin, and 2026, the last year money is provided in the Cassidy-Graham bill. Among states, the analysis shows, the greatest erosion of aid would occur in those that have had the greatest insurance gains under the ACA by expanding their Medicaid programs.

States with relatively low medical costs, skimpy Medicaid benefits and no program expansion would win out. Texas would gain more than any state — $35 billion from 2020 through 2026.

On the other hand, states with higher-priced medicine and generous benefits for their low-income residents — such as California and New York — would lose billions of dollars.

But it is not only the largest states that would win or lose. Virginia, which has always had tight Medicaid benefits and eligibility rules, would gain $3 billion, while Maryland, a Medicaid expansion state with more Medicaid benefits, would lose $13 billion.

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) listens during a September news conference about the health-care plan he and other Republican senators are pushing to upend major elements of the Affordable Care Act. (Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg)

This redistribution of federal money would be the biggest effect of the new Senate Republican plan, Avalere officials said as they released the report Wednesday morning.

The analysis is part of a wave of predictions on the impact of the starkly conservative measure, sponsored by GOP Sens. Lindsey O. Graham (S.C.) and Bill Cassidy (La.). The bill has given Republicans’ years-long quest to abolish much of the ACA a surprising new chance two months after a dramatic failure of other Senate legislation had made any effort appear moribund.

The Graham-Cassidy measure would kill central features of the 2010 law, including its insurance subsidies, coverage requirements for individual Americans and large businesses, and health benefit requirements for plans sold in ACA marketplaces. Instead, in a devolution of unprecedented scale, a smaller amount of health-care money would be redistributed around the country as block grants for much of the coming decade, with states having great freedom on how to spend it.

The plan also would transform the federal role in Medicaid for traditional recipients, ending the program’s half-century tradition as an open-ended entitlement in which the government gives each state a fixed share of whatever its costs for the program are. Instead, federal aid would be converted to a per-person cap — a method that does not adjust as easily over time to expensive improvements in medical care or to possible economic downturns in which low-income people flock to the program.

The analyses of the impact of such massive changes — a liberal think tank produced a forecast earlier in the week, and two more by another health-policy group and a major trade association are expected by Friday — have assumed outsize significance because the Senate GOP is trying to speed toward a vote before the expiration of special budget rules on Sept. 30 that would allow them to pass the bill with a simple majority and no Democratic votes. This quick deadline means that much of the debate is occurring before Congress’s nonpartisan budget scorekeepers have time to issue an official forecast of the legislation’s impact. Their score is expected next week.

The Avalere predictions also help to explain the worries of a bipartisan group of 10 governors, who urged the Senate’s leaders on Tuesday “not to consider” the Graham-Cassidy bill. All four GOP governors who signed onto the letter to the Senate’s majority and minority leaders — including John Kasich (Ohio) and Brian Sandoval (Nev.), plus the one independent, Bill Walker (Alaska) — come from states that expanded their Medicaid programs under the ACA and would lose the most under the measure’s reshuffling of federal money.

In a separate sign of some state officials’ worry about the prospect of losing aid, Louisiana Health Secretary Rebekah Gee sent a letter to Cassidy saying the bill “singles out Louisiana for disproportional cuts to our Federal funding.” She also noted “the specter” of a state waiver process that could eliminate protections for individuals with preexisting medical conditions or complex and costly illnesses.

“This would be a detrimental step backwards for Louisiana,” wrote Gee, who posted her letter on Twitter on Tuesday. Avalere’s analysis estimates that Louisiana would lose $8 billion from 2020 to 2026 under the bill.

And the latest Republican proposal has unnerved some major insurers in states that stand to lose the most.

Andrew Dreyfus, president and chief executive of Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts, said in a statement Wednesday that his company has “serious concerns” about both the bill’s Medicaid cuts and “provisions that would allow states to remove protections for those with pre-existing conditions.”

“The bill would destabilize state insurance markets,” said Dreyfus, who noted Massachusetts could lose more than $5 billion in federal funding by 2026.

The political fault lines between winners and losers became even more vivid late on Tuesday, when 15 Republican governors signed their own letter endorsing the bill. Led by Wisconsin’s Scott Walker, who had a role in designing the legislation, this group includes five governors from states that chose to broaden Medicaid benefits to low-income adults earning up to 138 percent of the federal poverty level.

Among governors critical of the Graham-Cassidy plan, a major concern are the steep cuts that would occur in federal Medicaid allocations. Not only would a per-capita cap be imposed on states, but restrictions would limit how they could spend the money on their expanded Medicaid populations.

The fact that the bill would bar states from taxing health-care providers to fund their Medicaid programs poses a problem for several governors as well.

The boldness of the plan — and the extent to which it would free states from the ACA’s rules — has startled even some Republicans in recent days. “It’s not about health policy any more,” said one former senior GOP congressional staffer. “This is about, in the Senate particularly, they need a vote. They were getting their rear ends hammered by the president and their base. It’s about, ‘Are we winners or losers?’ ”

The forecast Avalere issued on Wednesday does not include any predictions on its effect on the number of Americans with health insurance. The firm’s staff are now trying to produce rough coverage estimates. The forecast due next week from the Congressional Budget Office also may not include that information, even though the CBO typically calculates the impact on coverage along with budgetary consequences of health-care legislation.

But the coverage effect is tricky to assess because each state would gain the ability to establish its own rules to replace federal regulations created under the ACA. The ACA regulations most at risk are those limiting the premium differential that insurers can charge older customers compared to younger ones, requiring specific health benefits and blocking insurers from charging more for people with preexisting conditions.

The Avalere report also notes that the bill would lead to a “fiscal cliff” when funding ends in 2027, leaving it to a future Congress to decide whether to extend the legislation.

Hurricane Maria Live Updates: Puerto Rico Suffers a Direct Hit With Worries of Floods

Federal officials say they are prepared to help

President Trump said on Wednesday that he had “never seen” winds like the ones generated by Hurricane Maria as it made landfall in Puerto Rico.

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“We have a big one going right now — I’ve never seen winds like this — in Puerto Rico,” he said as he entered a meeting in New York with King Abdullah II of Jordan. “You take a look at what’s happening there, and it’s just one after another.”

The king extended his “condolences” to residents in the path of the three storms that have hit the United States over the last several weeks, adding, “For us sitting on the outside, looking at how the Americans came together at a difficult time, is really an example to everybody else.”

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On CNN, Brock Long, the administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said that the agency was well positioned to help in Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands.

Mr. Long confirmed that both areas had fragile power systems. “It’s going to be a very frustrating event to get the power back on,” he said.

‘There was howling in every part of this house,’ said a St. Croix resident

Residents of the Virgin Islands, whose homes were damaged by Irma two weeks ago, had been urged to find new shelters to ride out Maria.

The storm began pounding the Virgin Islands on Tuesday evening, and a flash-flood alert was sent to residents’ cellphones at 10:05 p.m., Gov. Kenneth E. Mapp of the United States Virgin Islands said. He had warned that hurricane-strength winds were likely to batter the islands until Wednesday morning.

The core of the storm passed south of the Virgin Islands, with the outer eyewall lashing St. Croix.

“There was howling in every part of this house,” said Ernice Gilbert, a journalist who lives on the east side of the island. “In my area, the winds were ferocious. But the bulk of the winds were expected to hit strongest in the southwest.”

At one point, he said, the rafters of his house began “cracking,” and part of his wall had cracked. The strong winds forced him to barricade his doors with couches, Mr. Gilbert said.

“That was the scariest portion of the ordeal for me,” he said by telephone.

Maria had battered the island nation of Dominica a day earlier. Prime Minister Skerrit described the damage as “mind-boggling” and wrote on Facebook that he had to be rescued after winds ripped the roof off his official residence. But little information has emerged since then, with the storm having taken out phone and power lines on Dominica.

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Listen: Locals Describe Hurricane Maria’s Damage in Dominica

With no power, phones or internet, Dominica residents turned to amateur radio to give updates on their situation after Hurricane Maria battered the island.


By BARBARA MARCOLINI and DREW JORDAN on Publish Date September 19, 2017.


.

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Luis Ferré-Sadurní reported from San Juan, and Austin Ramzy from Hong Kong. Jonah Engel Bromwich contributed reporting from New York.


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At UN, Global Leaders to Speak After Trump Takes Center Stage

Nations sign a treaty banning nuclear weapons.

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President Michel Temer of Brazil was the first to sign the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons at the United Nations on Wednesday.

Credit
Don Emmert/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Leaders and diplomats from dozens of countries signed a treaty at the United Nations on Wednesday that will outlaw nuclear weapons — a document that disarmament advocates described as a historic first.

The world’s nine nuclear-armed countries, including the United States and North Korea, declined to sign the treaty, and the Americans and their allies denounced it as dangerously naïve.

The treaty, finalized in July by negotiators representing 120 of the 193 United Nations members, offered a stark contrast to the threats of mutual nuclear annihilation raised in the bombastic exchanges between North Korea’s regime and the Trump administration in recent weeks.

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, as it is officially known, will enter into legal force 90 days after being ratified by 50 countries.

“The treaty is an important step toward the universally held goal of a world free of nuclear weapons,” Secretary General António Guterres, who supported the negotiations, said at the ceremony held in the Trusteeship Council chamber.

President Michel Temer of Brazil was the first to formally sign the treaty, as other leaders and diplomats in the chamber applauded.

The United States and the other nuclear-armed states urged other countries not to sign it. The Americans in particular ridiculed it, arguing that North Korea and any other rogue entity with nuclear weapons would ignore its provisions.

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In a statement issued before the signing ceremony, NATO denounced the treaty, saying it “disregards the realities of the increasingly challenging security environment.”

Supporters of the treaty said they had no expectation that nuclear-armed states would accept it at first. But they said they hoped that its widespread acceptance elsewhere would eventually increase the stigma of possessing such weapons because of their destructive power.

“This treaty is a clear indication that the majority of the world no longer accepts nuclear weapons and do not consider them legitimate weapons, creating the foundation of a new norm,” the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons said in a statement.

The treaty would outlaw the use, threat of use, testing, development, production, possession, transfer and stationing in a different country of nuclear weapons.

RICK GLADSTONE

Trump says he has ‘decided’ on the Iran nuclear deal.

President Trump said on Wednesday that he had made a decision on the nuclear agreement that his predecessor negotiated with Iran, but declined to tell reporters what it was.

“I have decided,” he said, repeating the phrase three times. Pressed by reporters, he added, “I’ll let you know what the decision is.”

His comments, made as he met with President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority, came the day after he told the United Nations General Assembly that the deal was “an embarrassment for the United States.”

Under United States law, Mr. Trump has until Oct. 15 to certify whether Iran is complying with the agreement, which required it to dismantle much of its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions. Mr. Trump has already certified Iran’s compliance twice, and most analysts said there was no cause to determine otherwise.

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— PETER BAKER

Iran’s leader calls nuclear deal a ‘model.’

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President Hassan Rouhani of Iran at United Nations on Wednesday.

Credit
Chang W. Lee/The New York Times

Speaking to the General Assembly on Wednesday, President Hassan Rouhani of Iran praised the nuclear deal with his country as a “model.”

He argued that the Middle East was safer because of it, and said threats by the Trump administration “undermines international confidence in negotiating with it.”

“Imagine for a moment how the Middle East would have looked had the J.C.P.O.A. not been concluded.” Mr. Rouhani said, using an acronym for the pact. He also singled out “baseless” allegations made on Tuesday at the General Assembly, without naming anyone.

The nuclear deal, Mr. Rouhani said, has been widely applauded and endorsed by the Security Council. “As such it belongs to the international community in its entirety and not only to one or two countries,” he said, adding that the agreement “can be a new model for global interactions.”

Pledging that Iran would not be the first to “violate” the nuclear deal, Mr. Rouhani took sharp aim at President Trump, saying, “It will be a great pity if this agreement were to be destroyed by rogue newcomers to the world of politics.”

A tweet sent from Mr. Rouhani’s official account also took aim at Trump’s speech.

He also said that American taxpayers should ask why billions of dollars spent in the region had not advanced peace but has only brought “war, misery, poverty” and a “rise of extremism to the region.”

— SOMINI SENGUPTA

Trump meets individually with other leaders.

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President Trump and King Abdullah II of Jordan expressed friendship during their meeting in New York on Wednesday.

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Doug Mills/The New York Times

President Trump is devoting his third day of international diplomacy in New York to a series of individual meetings with foreign leaders on Wednesday, mainly from the Arab world, as he seeks to rally a coalition in the Middle East against Iran.

He started on Wednesday morning by getting together with King Abdullah II of Jordan, who has met with Mr. Trump several times already, including an encounter shortly after the inauguration when the king attended a Washington prayer breakfast to lobby the president not to move the United States embassy to Jerusalem.

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The two expressed friendship on Wednesday. Mr. Trump praised the king for hosting so many Syrian refugees in his country and for combating terrorism. “He’s a very fine gentleman, a very nice man,” Mr. Trump told reporters at the start of the meeting. “He’s also a great, great fighter.”

The king expressed solidarity. “We’re all fighting together,” he said, adding that terrorism “is a scourge” around the world. “Jordan will always stand beside you and your country.”

Mr. Trump will meet later in the day with Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain and President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt. He also will host a luncheon with African leaders.

– PETER BAKER

Did Trump breach the U.N. Charter?

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President Trump addressing the General Assembly. His speech emphasized an “America first” agenda.

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Doug Mills/The New York Times

President Trump’s threat to destroy North Korea provoked a debate among scholars of international law about whether he had violated a tenet of the United Nations Charter.

Article 2(4) of the Charter says that countries should “refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force” against another country, and grants exceptions only for instances sanctioned by the Security Council or acts of self-defense.

In this case, there was no authorization from the Security Council, so the question is: Was Mr. Trump justified on the basis of self-defense?

John B. Bellinger III, who served as a legal adviser in the administration of George W. Bush, said that despite his “colorful” choice of words, Mr. Trump was on solid ground, invoking the self-defense argument.

“His threat to destroy North Korea did not violate the U.N. Charter because he said that the United States would use force only ‘if the United States is forced to defend itself or its allies,’ ” Mr. Bellinger said by email. “The Charter specifically allows a U.N. member to use force in self-defense.”

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Kevin Jon Heller, a law professor at the University of London, said he believed that Mr. Trump had overstepped.

“The problem is that self-defense must always be proportionate to the armed attack, and Trump clearly threatened disproportionate force,” Mr. Heller argued. “Had he said a nuclear attack would require wiping North Korea off the face of the earth, that might have been a lawful threat. But he did not qualify the threat in any way; on the contrary, he suggested North Korea would have to be destroyed in response to any armed attack on the U.S. or its allies. That is an unlawful threat that violates Art. 2(4).”

SOMINI SENGUPTA

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Mexico earthquake: A rush to save lives amid ‘new national emergency’

(CNN)Rescuers in hard hats and masks descended Wednesday on Mexico City in search of survivors after a deadly earthquake struck the region.

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    Temblor #cdmx #temblor #terremoto #eartquake

    A post shared by Don Jose Montero de T y Aragon (@virusventor) on Sep 19, 2017 at 12:31pm PDT

Myanmar’s Suu Kyi condemns abuses in Rakhine but silent on army role

NAYPYITAW (Reuters) – Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi condemned on Tuesday human rights violations in Rakhine state and said violators would be brought to book, but she did not address U.N. accusations of a campaign of ethnic cleansing by the military.

The Nobel Peace laureate’s remarks came in her first address to the nation since attacks by Rohingya Muslim insurgents on Aug. 25 sparked a military response that has forced 421,000 Rohingya Muslims into neighboring Bangladesh.

Western diplomats and aid officials, hoping for an unequivocal condemnation of violence and hate speech, welcomed the tone of Suu Kyi’s message, but some doubted if she had done enough to deflect global criticism.

Human rights group Amnesty International described her speech as “little more than a mix of untruths and victim-blaming”, saying she and her government were “burying their heads in the sand” for ignoring the army’s role in the violence.

“We condemn all human rights violations and unlawful violence. We are committed to the restoration of peace and stability and rule of law throughout the state,” Suu Kyi said in her address in the capital, Naypyitaw.

“Action will be taken against all people, regardless of their religion, race and political position, who go against the law of the land and violate human rights,” she said.

Long feted in the West as a champion of democracy in the Buddhist-majority country during years of military rule and house arrest, Suu Kyi has faced growing criticism for saying little about abuses faced by the Rohingya.

The United States urged Myanmar on Monday to end military operations, grant humanitarian access, and commit to aiding the safe return of civilians to their homes.

Myanmar’s generals remain in full charge of security and Suu Kyi did not comment on the military or its operation, except to say there had been “no armed clashes and there have been no clearance operations” since Sept. 5.

Rohingya refugees arriving in Bangladesh have told of soldiers and Buddhist civilians attacking and burning villages as recently as last Friday. It was not possible to verify their accounts.

BURNING VILLAGES

  • U.N. starting to gather testimony on Myanmar violations: investigator
  • Factbox: Reactions to speech by Myanmar’s Suu Kyi on violence in Rakhine State

Rights monitors and fleeing Rohingya say the army and Rakhine Buddhist vigilantes have mounted a campaign of arson aimed at driving out the Muslim population. The U.N. rights agency said it was “a textbook example of ethnic cleansing”.

Myanmar rejects that, saying its forces are tackling insurgents of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), which has claimed responsibility for attacks since October. The government has declared it a terrorist group and accused it of setting the fires and attacking civilians.

Western governments that backed Suu Kyi’s campaign against military rule still see her as the best hope for Myanmar’s political and economic transition.

But she has to avoid angering the powerful army.

She also has to avoid alienating her supporters by being seen to take the side of a Muslim minority that enjoys little sympathy in a country that has seen a surge of Buddhist nationalism.

Some diplomats said she had not squarely addressed the problem of violence in her speech.

But her domestic audience was happy.

Thousands of supporters cheered and let balloons float into the sky in the main city of Yangon as they watched her speech on a big screen. Social media saw a blizzard of posts with the message: “We stand with Aung San Suu Kyi”.

The military spokesman was not available for comment. One official familiar with the military’s thinking said it would have no objection to her speech.

Phil Robertson of Human Rights Watch said satellite images showed about half of all Rohingya villages had been torched and it was time that Suu Kyi, the government and military faced the fact that the security forces “shoot and kill who they want” and burn villages.

Amnesty International said there was “overwhelming evidence” the security forces were engaged in ethnic cleansing.

“While it was positive to hear Aung San Suu Kyi condemn human rights violations in Rakhine state, she is still silent about the role of the security forces,” the group said.

‘READY TO EXPLODE’

In Geneva, the head of a U.N. investigation into the violence said his team had heard testimony that suggested Myanmar’s security forces may be committing rights violations.

“What they have come up with reflects in general the reporting of the international media,” Marzuki Darusman said, referring to a small team of investigators talking to refugees in Bangladesh.

Myanmar has declined to issue visas to Darusman’s team but he said was more hopeful, following Suu Kyi’s speech in which she spoke of allowing diplomats access to Rakhine state.

Suu Kyi, 72, said her government had been promoting harmony between the Muslim and largely Buddhist ethnic Rakhine communities. But a government official there did not share her optimism.

“They have no trust for each other,” the state’s secretary, Tin Maung Swe, told Reuters, adding tension was high.

“The situation is ready to explode.”

Suu Kyi said she was committed to recommendations made by an advisory team led by former U.N. secretary-general Kofi Annan, which last month suggested a review of a law that links citizenship and ethnicity and leaves most Rohingya stateless.

On the return of refugees, Suu Kyi said Myanmar was ready to start a verification process and “refugees from this country will be accepted without any problem”.

The U.N. children’s agency said a quarter of a million children were among the refugees.

Additional reporting by Wa Lone and Andrew Marshall in SITTWE, Shoon Naing, Yimou Lee in YANGON, Tom Miles in GENEVA; Writing by Robert Birsel; Editing by Michael Perry and Clarence Fernandez

One Reason to Take the Latest Obamacare Repeal Seriously, and Three Reasons It Could Fail

But the bill faces substantial challenges, both political and procedural. Here are three reasons the effort may not succeed — and one very important reason it might.

1) Rand Paul is a hard no, which makes the math difficult.

Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky has been making a big point of how he dislikes this bill and won’t vote for it. He said so in a series of tweets on Monday. Then he held a news conference, saying he was immovable.

Without his vote, Senate leadership can afford to lose only one more. Senator John McCain of Arizona has offered mixed messages on the bill, and suggested on Monday that he was not yet endorsing the bill but might eventually.

So far, Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Senator Susan Collins of Maine have voted against every previous repeal attempt. They even voted against opening debate on the process that permitted consideration of the Graham-Cassidy option. If Mr. Paul holds firm, one of those two will need to change her mind.

It’s possible that Mr. Paul will switch sides, but he’s made it hard for himself to do so. Ms. Murkowski and Ms. Collins have said nothing about their intentions. But both raised objections about cuts to Medicaid in the earlier bill, and the new bill contains similar reductions. The bill’s funding formula also appears to be unkind to both Alaska and Maine.

Photo

Bill Cassidy and Lindsey Graham in July. The two Republican senators are the originators of the latest effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act.

Credit
Pablo Martinez Monsivais/Associated Press

2) There’s a huge redistribution of money between states in the bill’s formula. Losers include states with must-get senators.

The legislation sets up a complex formula for who gets what chunk of federal health care spending. The formula is devised to “equalize” spending among states. Currently, some states spend much more on Medicaid and the exchanges than others, either because they cover more people or because their systems are more generous or expensive. That redistribution of money means that some states would come out as big winners, but others would absorb big reductions.

Mr. Cassidy has pointed out that more than a third of Affordable Care Act spending goes to four states: California, New York, Massachusetts and Maryland. That’s roughly true. These are populous states that expanded their Medicaid programs and tend to have costly health care systems.

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But it’s not just big, blue states that would lose out. According to estimates from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a left-leaning think tank, Alaska, Arizona, Kentucky, Ohio and West Virginia, for example, would end up with less money by the end of a decade.

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Those states all contain Republican senators who have expressed some unease with earlier versions of Obamacare repeal, and they might wish to keep the bill off the floor to avoid a tough vote that would pit their broad political commitments to repeal against the more parochial concerns of their constituents. (Similar concerns might also crop up in the House, where a final vote would eventually need to be held.)

Over the long term, every state would lose money under the proposal. The big block grants would expire altogether in 2027.

3) The timing is tight, and the bill still has a long way to go, leaving little room for error.

Republicans are trying to pass the bill using a special budget procedure called reconciliation. That process allows them to pass the bill without needing any Democratic support, but it comes with a number of rules.

Under the reconciliation process, the bill requires an estimate of costs from the Congressional Budget Office. The office indicated that it would offer an initial assessment by “early next week,” but could not provide detailed estimates about what would happen to insurance coverage or premiums for several weeks. The score could discourage some senators from supporting the bill; an incomplete assessment might discourage others.

The bill will also need to be reviewed by the Senate’s parliamentarian to ensure that its provisions adhere to rules for the budget process. Some provisions, including restrictions on funding for abortion providers and the new option of work requirements for Medicaid beneficiaries, could run afoul of the rules and be scrubbed out in the “Byrd Bath.”

Any funding formula changes made to the bill to please reluctant senators could slow down the works.

The parliamentarian has said that the Senate process needs to be wrapped up by the end of the month. That means that the bill needs a score, a Byrd Bath rules review and a vote in the Senate by the end of Saturday, Sept. 30. Then the legislation would need to go back to the House, where, after midnight of that day, it could not be changed again, only voted up or down.

1. But Obamacare repeal is a core promise for Republicans.

Republicans have been running on a promise to repeal Obamacare since 2010, and this bill appears to be their last chance to achieve that goal in the foreseeable future. Though they could initiate a new budget process to try again with health care, the president and congressional leadership want to use the process instead to pass tax reform.

Many members of Congress (and their staffs) are weary of the recent health care fight, which has been bruising and has yielded little political upside. But even for lawmakers with doubts about this particular piece of legislation, the prospect of a win on an issue dear to their base — not to mention getting President Trump to stop jeering that they are “wasting time” and “couldn’t get it done” — could be a powerful motivating force.

Nicholas Fandos contributed reporting.

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The Daily 202: Mueller tightening the screws on Manafort

With Breanne Deppisch and Joanie Greve

THE BIG IDEA: Could there be tapes after all?

Two stories that popped overnight suggest that special counsel Robert Mueller is aggressively pursuing Paul Manafort, the former chairman of President Trump’s campaign.

CNN reports that “U.S. investigators wiretapped former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort under secret court orders before and after the election”: “The government snooping continued into early this year, including a period when Manafort was known to talk to President Donald Trump. Some of the intelligence collected includes communications that sparked concerns among investigators that Manafort had encouraged the Russians to help with the campaign, according to three sources familiar with the investigation …

“A secret order authorized by the court that handles the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) began after Manafort became the subject of an FBI investigation that began in 2014,” per Evan Perez, Shimon Prokupecz and Pamela Brown. “It centered on work done by a group of Washington consulting firms for Ukraine’s former ruling party … The surveillance was discontinued at some point last year for lack of evidence … The FBI then restarted the surveillance after obtaining a new FISA warrant that extended at least into early this year. … Sources say the second warrant was part of the FBI’s efforts to investigate ties between Trump campaign associates and suspected Russian operatives. Such warrants require the approval of top Justice Department and FBI officials, and the FBI must provide the court with information showing suspicion that the subject of the warrant may be acting as an agent of a foreign power.”

— The CNN story, parts of which were subsequently confirmed by CBS News, raises a host of fresh questions. Among them:

  • Was Trump himself picked up on any of the surveillance? CNN says that’s “unclear.” But it’s been widely reported that Manafort and Trump continued to talk after the inauguration and after it was reported that Manafort was under FBI investigation.
  • When exactly did the second FISA warrant start? The reporters couldn’t figure that out.
  • What did FBI agents find when, as part of the FISA warrant, they conducted a search of a storage facility belonging to Manafort earlier this year?

The New York Times reports on its front page this morning that, after agents raided his home with a no-knock search warrant this summer, Mueller’s prosecutors told Manafort that they planned to indict him. The story says the feds decided to pick the lock on Manafort’s front door in Alexandria, Va., because they feared he might try to destroy evidence: “They took binders stuffed with documents and copied his computer files, looking for evidence that Mr. Manafort … set up secret offshore bank accounts. They even photographed the expensive suits in his closet.”

Sharon LaFraniere, Matt Apuzzo and Adam Goldman include these detail in a larger piece on Mueller’s “shock and awe” tactics: “Mr. Mueller has obtained a flurry of subpoenas to compel witnesses to testify before a grand jury, lawyers and witnesses say, sometimes before his prosecutors have taken the customary first step of interviewing them. One witness was called before the grand jury less than a month after his name surfaced in news accounts. The special counsel even took the unusual step of obtaining a subpoena for one of Mr. Manafort’s former lawyers, claiming an exception to the rule that shields attorney-client discussions from scrutiny.” As points of comparison, The Times notes, Ken Starr and Patrick Fitzgerald never executed search warrants during their politically charged investigations in the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush administrations.

Mueller’s team has shown far more deference to current White House officials than associates of Manafort and former national security adviser Michael Flynn: “At least three witnesses have recently been subpoenaed to testify about Mr. Manafort: Jason Maloni, a spokesman who appeared before the grand jury for more than two hours on Friday, and the heads of two consulting firms — Mercury Public Affairs and the Podesta Group — who worked with Mr. Manafort on behalf of Viktor F. Yanukovych, the pro-Russia former president of Ukraine. Mr. Mueller’s team also took the unusual step of issuing a subpoena to Melissa Laurenza, a specialist in lobbying law who formerly represented Mr. Manafort … Conversations between lawyers and their clients are normally considered bound by attorney-client privilege, but there are exceptions when lawyers prepare public documents that are filed on behalf of their client.”

— Neither Manafort nor Mueller commented for either the CNN or NYT stories. Manafort has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing. 

— Flynn, for his part, tweeted yesterday for the first time since December in order to promote his legal defense fund:

HOW LAST NIGHT’S NEWS IS PLAYING —

AMONG LEGAL AND NATIONAL SECURITY EXPERTS:

— What does it mean that Manafort was informed he would be indicted? On the Lawfare Institute’s fantastic blog, Susan Hennessey, Shannon Togawa Mercer and Benjamin Wittes parse the story: “The Times’ revelation … involves a pretty spare set of reported facts. … The language here is not legally precise. It could mean that Manafort has been formally informed that he is an investigative ‘target’ — a designation that means that prosecutors intend to ask a grand jury to indict him. It could, instead, suggest something less than that — a kind of verbal aggressiveness designed to put pressure on him to cooperate…

“The significance of this is that it means that (Mueller’s) investigation has reached a critical stage — the point at which he may soon start making allegations in public,” per Lawfare. “Those allegations may involve conduct unrelated to L’Affaire Russe — that is, alleged bad behavior by Manafort and maybe others that does not involve the Trump campaign — but which may nonetheless serve to pressure Manafort to cooperate on matters more central. Or they may involve conduct that involves his behavior with respect to the campaign itself. Note that if Manafort cooperates, we may not see anything public for a long time to come. Delay, that is, may be a sign of success. But in the absence of cooperation, the fireworks may be about to begin.

— Renato Mariotti, a former federal prosecutor and partner at Thompson Coburn, tweeted 28 times about the stories. Here are the highlights: “We now know the Mueller probe will likely result in charges. More importantly, the tactic that Mueller is using — telling Manafort that he will be charged — is generally used when prosecutors are trying to get a defendant to ‘flip.’ This strongly suggests what we’ve long expected — that Mueller is trying to ‘flip’ Manafort. What causes a target to ‘flip’? The #1 factor is assembling sufficient evidence to make it likely that the person will be convicted and serve a prison sentence. Mueller’s team is being as aggressive as possible to indicate to Manafort that he should be concerned about that possibility. Subpoenaing Manafort’s aides and his lawyer … shows his focus on Manafort.”

— Asha Rangappa, a former FBI special agent in the counterintelligence division, explained the process for getting FISA orders in a tweetstorm of her own: “FISAs are sought when you are seeking foreign intelligence information on a foreign power or agent of a foreign power. Because you are not necessarily intending to gather evidence of a crime the standard is not as high as a criminal wiretap … That is, you don’t have to allege a specific crime, but you do have to show that the target is acting on behalf of a foreign power. For U.S. persons … the (standard) is slightly higher: that the target is ‘knowingly engaging in clandestine intelligence activities.’ … Evidence of a crime obtained in the course of a FISA *can* be used in a criminal proceeding.”

— There are two buzzy quotes from outside voices in the Times piece:

  • “They are setting a tone. It’s important early on to strike terror in the hearts of people in Washington, or else you will be rolled,” said Solomon L. Wisenberg, who was deputy independent counsel in the investigation that led to the impeachment trial of President Bill Clinton in 1999. “You want people saying to themselves, ‘Man, I had better tell these guys the truth.’
  • “They seem to be pursuing this more aggressively, taking a much harder line, than you’d expect to see in a typical white-collar case,” said Jimmy Gurulé, a Notre Dame law professor and former federal prosecutor. “This is more consistent with how you’d go after an organized crime syndicate.

Special counsel Robert Mueller departs a closed-door meeting with members of the Senate Judiciary Committee in June. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP)

— Preet Bharara, who was fired by Trump as U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, is heartened by Mueller’s quick pace:

— Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.), a member of the House Judiciary Committee, was in the JAG Corps as an Air Force officer:

— Norm Eisen was Barack Obama’s White House ethics czar:

— A former spokesman for the Justice Department questioned Trump’s continued communications with Manafort:

ON THE RIGHT:

— Breitbart is spinning the CNN story that Manafort was being surveilled as validation of Trump’s claim that Trump Tower was wiretapped. Back under the control of Steve Bannon, the banner headline on the site is: “CNN Admits Trump Campaign Was Wiretapped: Breitbart News and Mark Levin Right, Mainstream Media Wrong.”

National Review’s David French (who is an accomplished lawyer in his own right): “If you read the CNN report closely, you’ll note that there is much that is ‘unclear’ (to use CNN’s words.) The new FISA warrant was allegedly related to suspected contacts between Manafort and Russian operatives, but it’s unclear where his phones were tapped, or if they actually swept up conversations with Trump. … None of this means that Manafort is actually guilty of anything, but only the most mindless, tribal partisan would look at these developments with anything but concern and alarm. Potential corruption that close to the president — especially when connected with our nation’s chief geopolitical foe — is deeply problematic.”

The headline on the Daily Caller is “Mo Mana, Mo Problems”: “The development is not unexpected, even within the sprawling network of former Trump aides and outside advisors. Several sources close to the president, including veterans of the campaign, told The Daily Caller early in September that they expect Manafort will be indicted for financial crimes like money-laundering or tax evasion.”

ON THE LEFT:

Slate: “Today’s Impeach-O-Meter: Paul Manafort Appears to Be in Some Pretty Hot Water.”

Vice News: “Things have gone from bad to worse for Trump officials targeted in Russia probe.”

Talking Points Memo’s Josh Marshall writes that “it is hard to know precisely what to make of (CNN’s) revelation”: “Just when the FISA warrant was granted is not clear from the report. But the precise date would tell us a lot. … A key detail to know is whether the warrant was issued perhaps later in June of 2016 or much later in the campaign after Manafort was dismissed in August. By my read the article is not clear on whether the warrant was issued while Manafort was still working on the campaign.”

IS FACEBOOK STONEWALLING CONGRESS?

— “House and Senate investigators have grown increasingly concerned that Facebook is withholding key information that could illuminate the shape and extent of a Russian propaganda campaign aimed at tilting the U.S. presidential election,” The Washington Post’s Carol D. Leonnig, Elizabeth Dwoskin and Craig Timberg report. “Among the information Capitol Hill investigators are seeking is the full internal draft report from an inquiry the company conducted this spring into Russian election meddling but did not release at the time. … A 13-page ‘white paper’ that Facebook published in April drew from this fuller internal report but left out critical details about how the Russian operation worked and how Facebook discovered it, according to people briefed on its contents. Investigators believe the company has not fully examined all potential ways that Russians could have manipulated Facebook’s sprawling social media platform. …

“A particularly sore point among Hill investigators is that Facebook has shared more extensive information — including ads bought through fake Russian accounts — with (Mueller) … Some members of the House and Senate intelligence committees were irritated that Facebook staff showed them copies of the ads but would not let the committees keep the documents for further study. … The investigators’ frustrations follow Facebook’s announcement earlier this month that accounts traced to a shadowy Russian Internet company had purchased at least $100,000 in ads during the 2016 election season. Congressional investigators are questioning whether the Facebook review that yielded those findings was sufficiently thorough. They said some of the ad purchases that Facebook has unearthed so far had obvious Russian fingerprints, including Russian addresses and payments made in rubles…”

— The congressional investigations continue to pursue other angles, as well. Trump’s personal attorney, Michael Cohen, is expected to be interviewed today by Senate Intelligence committee staffers. It is a voluntary sit-down, and he won’t be under oath.

— Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton is not ruling out questioning the legitimacy of the election if more information emerges that Russia played a bigger role than currently known. Terry Gross asked the 2016 Democratic nominee on NPR yesterday. “No, I wouldn’t rule it out,” she said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is skipping the United Nations meeting to observe a military exercise near St. Petersburg. (Mikhail Klimentyev/Sputnik/AP)

THE BEAR WALKS OUT OF THE WOODS:

— “A revitalized Russian military on Monday sent tanks, paratroopers, artillery, antiaircraft weapons, jets and helicopters into frigid rains to engage the forces of a mock enemy called the ‘Western Coalition,’” David Filipov, Michael Birnbaum and Andrew Roth report: “The barrage of firepower, part of war games that began last week, was an explosive show of force that Baltic leaders said was a simulation of an attack against NATO forces in Eastern Europe. [Vladimir Putin] visited the field Monday, skipping the 72nd United Nations General Assembly in favor of the military exercises held jointly with Belarus. The muscle-flexing, which began Thursday, highlights the lethality of a fighting force that has taken a crash course of reforms and upgrades over the last decade. … [And] the Baltic countries that would be on the front lines of any potential Western conflict with Russia say that the exercises are only nominally about separatism and are mainly intended to leave them rattled.”

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING:

— Hurricane Maria made landfall in the Caribbean island Dominica overnight. Jason Samenow reports: “The extremely dangerous storm, now a Category 4 hurricane with 155-mph winds, has the potential to cause widespread destruction along its path from the central Lesser Antilles through Puerto Rico. ‘Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous Category 4 or 5 hurricane while it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico,’ the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday … At 9:35 p.m. Monday, the storm made landfall in Dominica, causing widespread damages as it plowed west-northwest at 9 mph. It was the first Category 5 storm to strike Dominica in recorded history. The country’s prime minister, Roosevelt Skerrit, said in a Facebook post that “We have lost all that money can buy … 

“On Tuesday, Maria is predicted to mostly pass through a patch of the Caribbean free of islands before potentially closing in on St. Croix, now under a hurricane warning, late in the day or at night. This island was one of the few U.S. Virgin Islands that was spared Irma’s wrath, but may well get hammered by Maria.”

Meanwhile, Jose lostsome of its tropical characteristics” and “is expected to behave like a strong nor’easter along the coast of the Northeast, from near Long Island to eastern Massachusetts. The tropical storm watch was upgraded to a warning for coastal Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts, the areas most likely to be substantially impacted by Jose. A tropical storm watch continues for areas to the south down to eastern Long Island. Farther south, along the New Jersey and Delaware coastline, the tropical storm watch was dropped.”

Donald Trump Jr. (Carolyn Kaster/AP)

GET SMART FAST:​​

  1. Donald Trump Jr. has reportedly requested to end his Secret Service protection. The president’s son has complained to friends about the lack of privacy stemming from the protection, but it was unclear whether the request extended to his wife and their five children. (Carol D. Leonnig)
  2. British media reported details of the two men arrested in connection with last week’s London subway bombing. One of the men appears to be 21-year-old Yahyah Farroukh, whose social media pages suggest he is from Damascus. The other man, whose name has not been reported, is an 18-year-old who was detained Saturday in southeastern England. (William Booth)
  3. Conservative activist Scottie Nell Hughes filed a lawsuit against Fox News, alleging she had been raped by longtime anchor Charles Payne and was subsequently blacklisted by the network after coming forward with her claim. (New York Times)
  4. Equifax’s chief information officer and chief security officer are retiring. The news comes one week after the credit reporting bureau disclosed its massive data breach. (Hamza Shaban)
  5. The Veterans Affairs Department reported that veterans are 20 percent more likely than nonveterans to commit suicide. The figure was reported in a Friday news release at the close of business. (Foreign Policy)
  6. Toys ‘R’ Us has filed for bankruptcy. The company’s 1,600 stores will continue to operate normally. (Travis M. Andrews)
  7. U2 canceled a planned concert in St. Louis due to the city’s ongoing protests over the acquittal of a former police officer who shot a black driver. The band was scheduled to play at the Dome at America’s Center on Saturday. (Ellen McCarthy)
  8. Meghan McCain is in late-stage talks to join ABC’s “The View.” McCain announced last week that she was leaving Fox News and Jedediah Bila, who served as “The View’s” conservative panelist, just announced her departure from the show. (CNNMoney)
  9. Stanislav Petrov, a Russian lieutenant colonel credited with helping the world avert nuclear war, died at 77. Petrov correctly identified a satellite signal indicating a nuke sent from the United States to Eastern Europe as a false alarm. (Harrison Smith)

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), left, and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), right, talk on their way into a meeting at the Capitol. Graham and Cassidy are leading the new GOP charge, which would transform much of the Affordable Care Act into block grants and let states decide how to spend the money. (Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP)

HEALTH-CARE HAIL MARY:

— Momentum seems to be picking up for the latest Republican health-care proposal, which would roll back Obamacare by giving much of its money in block grants to the states. Mitch McConnell has said he will put the measure — spearheaded by Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) — on the Senate floor if it can garner 50 votes and succeed, which is still an iffy proposition. The GOP doesn’t have a lot of time — it must pass the measure by Sept. 30 when special budget rules expire allowing it to rely only on Republican votes. 

— The bill goes even further in slashing Medicaid than the failed McConnell measure did. The Health 202 Paige Winfield Cunningham explains: “[The measure would also] aim the cuts more directly at states that expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. It was the governors and senators from those states who were most deeply worried about Medicaid cuts to begin with. In fact, compared with both the House and Senate health-care bills, the Graham-Cassidy measure would more drastically remold the ACA by giving states virtually unlimited control over federal dollars currently being spent on marketplace subsidies and Medicaid expansion. It would also allow states to opt out of virtually all of the ACA’s insurer regulations by obtaining waivers.” 

— The state of play, via Sean Sullivan and Kelsey Snell: Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) reiterated yesterday that he would oppose the measure, and the three Republican senators who voted against the defeated bill were noncommittal. “[Sen. John] McCain [R-Ariz] warned against rushing ahead. ‘We just need to have a regular process rather than, “Hey I’ve got an idea, let’s run this through the Senate and give them an up-or-down vote,” ’ he said. [Sen. Lisa] Murkowski [R-Alaska] said she was trying to learn more about the proposal’s impact on Alaska and consulting with her governor. On her way to McConnell’s office Monday afternoon, she wouldn’t say whether she was leaning for or against the bill. [Sen. Susan] Collins [R-Maine], who is seen by many Republicans as the strongest opponent of replacing the ACA, said Monday that she worries that millions could lose coverage under the new plan.”

Murkowski is the one to watch. “A Republican senator who has spoken to GOP leaders said Murkowski is likely the bellwether. This senator said that GOP leaders believe other undecided senators will support the bill if it is put on the floor and that McConnell has begun whipping the bill because he ‘realizes that there’s life out there.’ ‘We are one vote away from doing this thing,’ the senator insisted,” reported Politico’s Burgess Everett and Jennifer Haberkorn.

— Another complication: the Congressional Budget Office won’t be able to issue a full report by the end of the month, which means lawmakers may vote on the measure without knowing how many people would lose coverage and how much insurance premiums would go up. Those estimates won’t be available “for at least several weeks,” the nonpartisan scoring agency said yesterday. (Elise Viebeck)

— Even if the bill can make it through the Senate, its passage in the House is far from guaranteed. Mike DeBonis reports: “Make no mistake, the pressure on GOP House members to make good on their eight-year promise to repeal the Affordable Care Act would be enormous, and several House Republican aides and members said Monday that they expect members would be squeezed in a political vise of epic proportions until the measure passes. … But none of those Republicans — cognizant of the many GOP health-care missteps to date — would guarantee Graham-Cassidy would pass the House. … [House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark] Meadows, for one, said much depends on how the Senate bill might change in the coming weeks. … But the bigger obstacle may be House moderates — particularly from the states of California and New York, which stand to lose tens of billions of dollars in federal health-care funding under the Graham-Cassidy framework.”

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) boards an elevator in the Capitol. (Carolyn Kaster/AP)

— McConnell’s calculus: The majority leader believes that Republicans will suffer badly in the midterms if they cannot demonstrate progress to the base on getting rid of the 2010 law. Even passing a flawed bill that later fails in a conference makes incumbents less vulnerable to attacks from their right. As Trump increasingly works with Democrats, GOP leaders want to show they can manage their conference. If McConnell succeeds, he will help rehabilitate his image among Republicans. If he fails, though, Trump might be more emboldened to partner with Chuck Schumer, a fellow New Yorker who temperamentally is more like him. 

— A great on-the-ground window into the dynamic: “For those in the Party of Trump, the Republicans — not the president — are to blame,” Jenna Johnson reports from Oxford, N.C.: “During one of their usual morning gatherings at the Bojangles’ restaurant in this rural town near the Virginia border, a group of retirees from a local Baptist church shook their heads at the failure of Washington to [get] anything accomplished. But the focus of their blame is not [Trump], it’s Republicans in Congress — whom they view as standing in the way. These churchgoers are at the heart of the dilemma nagging Republican leaders as they struggle to forge a path between the Grand Old Party and the Party of Trump. They … speak of Democratic and Republican congressional leaders with the same levels of frustration and disappointment — while describing Trump as if he were a longtime neighbor. And they don’t expect their devotion to the president to waver, even a tiny bit, any time soon.”

‘TIGER’ OR ‘TABBY?’ TRUMP AT THE U.N.:

— In his first address to the U.N. today, Trump is expected to focus on creating global conditional advantageous to the United States without promoting democracy on the world stage. David Nakamura and Anne Gearan report: “Amid mounting global challenges, foreign leaders are carefully watching Trump’s moment on the world stage for signals about his willingness to maintain the United States’ traditional leadership role. … White House aides said the address would be consistent with Trump’s foreign policy speeches this year in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where he challenged other ­nations to do more in the global fight against terrorism, and in Warsaw, where he warned that Western civilization was under attack. … Trump, as he has before, intends to emphasize the need for other nations to take up more of the burden of providing for their own prosperity and security, rather than relying on the United States.

In brief opening remarks, [Trump] said the United Nations had not lived up to its billing upon its creation in 1945, asserting that it suffered from a bloated bureaucracy and ‘mismanagement.’ Trump urged his fellow leaders to make reforms aimed at ‘changing business as usual,’ but pledged that his administration would be ‘partners in your work.’ ‘Make the United Nations great,’ the president told reporters when asked about his message this week, riffing off his campaign slogan. ‘Not again. Make the United Nations great. Such tremendous potential, and I think we’ll be able to do this.’”

— The New York Times’s Peter Baker and Somini Sengupta noted Trump’s softer tone at the international forum, where diplomacy reigns supreme. They write that “protocol-obsessed diplomats” didn’t know what to expect from the U.S. president, but “Instead of a tiger, they got a tabby. Mr. Trump, the apostle of America First who has heaped scorn on global institutions, ripped up international agreements and quarreled even with allies, offered a subdued and largely friendly performance.”

But Baker and Sengupta warnTrump might have been buttering up the crowd for a much-tougher speech on Day 2 this morning:  “In a speech drafted by his hard-line policy adviser, Stephen Miller, Mr. Trump plans to challenge the world to do more to counter threats from Iran and North Korea”

The day was arranged by U.S. ambassador Nikki Haley and Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who pressed for an end to the Iran nuclear deal, the Times reported.  “Asked by reporters if he would withdraw [from that deal], Mr. Trump said: ‘You’ll see very soon. You’ll be seeing very soon.’ He added: ‘We’re talking about it constantly. Constantly.’

— Trump met yesterday with French President Emmanuel Macron, praising for his country’s Bastille Day parade (which he saw firsthand). Trump mentioned he’d love a similar procession down Pennsylvania Avenue for the Fourth of July. “I was your guest at Bastille Day, and it was one of the greatest parades I’ve ever seen,” Trump said. “It was two hours on the button, and it was military might and, I think, a tremendous thing for France and the spirit of France. … To a large extent because of what I witnessed, we may do something like that on July Fourth in Washington down Pennsylvania Avenue.” The comment prompted laughter from Macron and other assembled officials, but Trump seemed serious, even adding that he has spoken with his chief of staff about the idea to “see if we can do it this year.” (Abby Phillip)

THE WORLD IS ON FIRE:

— “The Pentagon deployed a formation of 14 bombers and fighters over the Korean Peninsula on Sunday that also included South Korean and Japanese aircraft, the latest show of force in response to North Korea’s missile launches and nuclear tests,” Dan Lamothe reports: “The warplanes were dispatched after North Korea launched a ballistic missile over northern Japan on Thursday, triggering a widespread emergency alert for those who call the region home. Two Air Force B-1B bombers from Andersen Air Force Base in Guam and four Marine Corps F-35B fighters from Iwakuni, Japan, combined with four South Korean F-15K fighters and four F-2 Japanese fighters, U.S. defense officials said.”

— Jim Mattis said his South Korean counterpart asked recently about reintroducing tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea. Dan explains: “Mattis … confirmed that he and Defense Minister Song Young-moo discussed the weapons during an Aug. 30 visit in Washington. The Pentagon chief did not say whether he’d support such an idea, however. Song has advocated for the move, calling it an ‘alternative worth a full review.’ … South Korean President Moon Jae-in has said several times that he is against the return of nuclear weapons, but he faces opposition on that point from many conservative leaders in his country[.]”

— Trump’s claim there are “long gas lines” forming in North Korea as a result of new sanctions has puzzled many residents in Pyongyang. Anna Fifield reports: “Although there are reports of price increases, they’ve seen no queues at the few service stations in Pyongyang, a city of about 2 million people that has more cars than it used to but is still far from congested. ‘We are not aware of any long queues at the gas stations,’ one foreign resident of Pyongyang said. Another said there had been no obvious change since the last sanctions resolution[.] … ‘Traffic on Friday was as heavy here as I’ve seen it. Normal on Saturday. Quieter on Sunday.’ In other words, the same as every week.”

— Iraqi Kurds plan to vote on independence from Iraq next week, alarming U.S. officials. Tamer El-Ghobashy reports: “[The U.S.] opposes the move, as do Iraqi rivals and regional powers. They say it could spark new conflicts and aggravate old ones at a time when the nation is on the cusp of defeating the Islamic State. … [T]he lead-up to next week’s vote has already resulted in political fallout and threats of violence, and the United States has shown little ability to persuade the Kurds to delay the referendum in favor of continued negotiations with Baghdad over disputed territories and revenue-sharing.”

— The top security official at the U.S. embassy in Cuba is among at least 21 Americans targeted in the mysterious attacks on their health, triggering in some mild traumatic brain injury and permanent hearing loss. CBS News’s Steve Dorsey reports: “Identified as the Regional Security Officer, the position is responsible for serving as the embassy’s senior law enforcement and … are key members of the State Department’s Bureau of Diplomatic Security overseeing the safety and security of each U.S. embassy and their personnel. The development illustrates how far-reaching the attacks have been, affecting one of the most senior leaders of the U.S. embassy that only reopened in 2015.”

— Burmese leader Aung San Suu Kyi downplayed the violent conflict in her country that has forced over 400,000 Rohingya Muslims to flee to neighboring Bangladesh. Joe Freeman writes: “Appearing to cast doubt on claims that the military has burned homes, killed civilians and driven families over the border into Bangladesh, Suu Kyi [said] there have been ‘allegations and counterallegations.’ … Top United Nations officials have described the campaign as ‘ethnic cleansing,’ and harrowing accounts of atrocities allegedly carried out by Burma’s armed forces have emerged from refugees in camps in Bangladesh with a chilling consistency.”

Activists hold a banner during a demonstration organized by the Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society outside the U.S. Capitol. (Aaron P. Bernstein/Getty Images)

THE TRUMP AGENDA:

— Trump’s Cabinet is at odds over where to cap refugee admissions for 2018, with a final decision due Oct. 1. The Wall Street Journal’s Felicia Schwartz and Laura Meckler report: “The State Department, Pentagon and others are arguing that there are humanitarian and national security reasons for accepting a robust number of refugees, and are pushing to maintain the ceiling at 50,000. They also point to economic benefits. … Homeland Security officials, backed by Attorney General Jeff Sessions, are pushing to lower the cap to 40,000, several officials said. They are supported by Trump policy adviser Stephen Miller, a former Sessions aide, who advocated for the cap to go even lower — to as few as 15,000 refugees, people familiar with the process said.”

— Those arguing for a lower cap rejected a recent study documenting the economic benefits that refugees provide. The New York Times’s Julie Hirschfeld Davis and Somini Sengupta report: “The internal study [from the Department of Health and Human Services], which was completed in late July but never publicly released, found that refugees ‘contributed an estimated $269.1 billion in revenues to all levels of government’ between 2005 and 2014 through the payment of federal, state and local taxes. ‘Overall, this report estimated that the net fiscal impact of refugees was positive over the 10-year period, at $63 billion.’ But White House officials said those conclusions were illegitimate and politically motivated, and were disproved by the final report issued by the agency, which asserts that the per-capita cost of a refugee is higher than that of an American. …

It was not clear who in the administration decided to keep the information out of the final report. An internal email, dated Sept. 5 and sent among officials from government agencies involved in refugee issues, said that ‘senior leadership is questioning the assumptions used to produce the report.’ A separate email said that [Stephen] Miller had requested a meeting to discuss the report. … Mr. Miller personally intervened in the discussions on the refugee cap to ensure that only the costs — not any fiscal benefit — of the program were considered, according to two people familiar with the talks.”

— Environmental groups are threatening to sue the administration if it implements Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke’s recommendation to alter several national monuments. But fishing and grazing advocates praised the possible increased access to the lands. (Juliet Eilperin)

— A new DHS report concludes that illegal crossing of the southern border has become much more difficult. Nick Miroff reports: “The report, published last week by the agency’s Office of Immigration Statistics, estimates that 55 to 85 percent of attempted illegal border crossings are unsuccessful, up from 35 to 70 percent a decade ago. In one telling sign of the difficulty, the number of illegal migrants and deportees who make repeated attempts to get in has also fallen dramatically, because so many would-be migrants are giving up.”

— Mattis has designated two high-ranking Pentagon officials to analyze Trump’s ban on transgender troops. From Dan Lamothe: “Mattis selected Air Force Gen. Paul J. Selva, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Deputy Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan to make evidence-based recommendations on the way forward, according to the memo released Monday. This memo follows similar ones … giving Mattis until Feb. 21 to establish a plan for carrying out President Trump’s controversial ban on transgender personnel. … Mattis’s new memo … reiterates that the Defense Department will not take any adverse action against transgender service members this year.”

— Two more lawsuits were filed yesterday to contest Trump’s decision to end DACA. The administration now faces at least five lawsuits challenging the policy. (Politico’s Josh Gerstein)

— Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) has signed the Foxconn deal that Trump praised back in July. The deal offers the technology company $3 billion in government incentives to build a mega-plant in the state, which was criticized by Democratic lawmakers as too costly for taxpayers. (The Wall Street Journal’s Shayndi Raice)

— Sean Spicer now says that he “absolutely” regrets the false statements he made about the size of Trump’s inauguration crowd. It was the first time he acknowledged any remorse over the falsehoods that set the tone for his rocky tenure as press secretary. (Rachel Chason)

THE CONGRESSIONAL AGENDA:

— Top House Democrat Nancy Pelosi was interrupted at a home-town event by dozens of immigration activists who demanded a “clean bill” to protect the beneficiaries of DACA. Ed O’Keefe reports: “As [Pelosi] concluded her remarks, roughly 40 people rushed the stage and started chanting loudly while Pelosi [watched]. … The protesters demanded ‘a clean bill’ — meaning that the Dream Act would get an up-or-down vote on its own without any language regarding border security attached. They ‘demanded’ that Pelosi show a commitment to protecting ‘all 11 million’ undocumented immigrants believed to be in the country.”

— The Senate easily passed its massive defense bill but sidestepped amendments meant to serve as referendums on Trump policies, including his ban on transgender troops and tougher sanctions against North Korea. From Karoun Demirjian: “Senate leaders were unable to strike a deal to schedule votes on several proposed amendments, meaning that highly anticipated debates over whether to increase sanctions against North Korea and challenge President Trump’s announced ban on transgender troops never happened on the Senate floor. … But the Senate’s bill does include a few significant policy changes, including a government-wide ban on using Russian firm Kaspersky Labs’ software.”

— Senate Republicans are considering a budget plan that would include $1.5 trillion in tax cuts over 10 years — without offsetting the cost by eliminating tax breaks. The Wall Street Journal’s Richard Rubin and Siobhan Hughes report: “Republicans contend that some expiring tax cuts would have been extended anyway and that their plan would boost economic growth and generate revenue, reducing the actual impact on the deficit below whatever overall number they agree on. Still, they may need to make some of the tax cuts expire after 10 years, leaving decisions to a future Congress they may not control. With this latest turn in budget talks, Republicans are gradually shifting away from an earlier stance some took in favor of a tax plan that fully paid for itself in the first decade.”

SOCIAL MEDIA SPEED READ:

A GOP strategist slammed Republicans for supporting the Graham-Cassidy bill without a CBO score:

A House Democrat criticized Trump’s call for a big military parade on the Fourth of July:

Former Vice President Joe Biden belatedly responded to Trump’s retweet of a GIF showing him hitting Hillary Clinton with a golf ball:

From the former Democratic senator of California:

A HuffPost political editor made this point about the Republicans’ health-care plan:

A Democratic senator encouraged his followers to hit Congress’s phone lines over health care:

From Hawaii’s Democratic senator:

The founder of the liberal ThinkProgress questioned Sean Spicer’s assertion that he regrets the false statements he made about the crowd at Trump’s inauguration:

From CNN’s media reporter:

And Rep. Steve Scalise wished the Air Force a happy birthday:

GOOD READS FROM ELSEWHERE:

— The New York Times, “‘Friends,’ the Sitcom That’s Still a Hit in Major League Baseball,” by James Wagner: “For at least one generation of Americans, ‘Friends’ endures as a cultural touchstone, a glowing chunk of 1990s amber. But its runaway popularity stretched far beyond the United States, and for some Latino baseball players it is something more: a language guide, a Rosetta Stone disguised as six 20-somethings commingling in a Manhattan apartment.”

— The Atlantic, “How the GOP Prompted the Decay of Political Norms,” by E.J. Dionne Jr., Norm Ornstein and Thomas E. Mann: “Trumpism has long been in gestation. His own party, sometimes consciously, sometimes not, has been undercutting the norms of American politics for decades. As the traditionalist conservative Rod Dreher has written, ‘Trump didn’t come from nowhere. George W. Bush, the Republican Party, and movement conservatism bulldozed the field for Trump without even knowing what they were doing.’”

— Politico, “Pentagon reporters frustrated by Mattis,” by Jason Schwartz: “In the past, Pentagon reporters have enjoyed an unusual level of access to senior officials, compared with their counterparts in other departments. Journalists who work out of the building’s press center are free to roam most areas of the building and many have worked there for years — if not decades — allowing them to build up strong relationships, especially with the nonpolitical uniformed staff. But the fear now is that the Trump administration’s war on the press has spilled into the Pentagon.”

HOT ON THE LEFT

“Roy Moore includes ‘reds and yellows’ on list of racially divided groups,” from Eugene Scott and Amber Phillips: “[Republican Alabama Senate candidate] Roy Moore, a former chief justice on the state Supreme Court, was speaking against racial, political and other divisions at a rally in Florence, Ala., on Sunday when he inserted two words that have been historically used as slurs. ‘We were torn apart in the Civil War — brother against brother, North against South, party against party,’ he said. ‘What changed? Now we have blacks and whites fighting, reds and yellows fighting, Democrats and Republicans fighting, men and women fighting,’ Moore added. ‘What’s going to unite us? What’s going to bring us back together? A president? A Congress? No. It’s going to be God.’”

 

HOT ON THE RIGHT:

“Houston, Franklin and Jefferson are among Dallas ISD campuses that ‘require further research’ for possible name changes,” from the Dallas Morning News: “Dallas [Indpendent School District] is researching the histories of Ben Franklin, Sam Houston, Thomas Jefferson and 17 other historical figures, looking into whether their connections with slavery or the Confederacy should prompt reconsideration of their names on DISD campuses. ‘This was just a very quick review of looking at the biographies of the individuals,’ [said] DISD chief of school leadership Stephanie Elizalde … [who acknowledged] the difficulty in drawing a line on where to proceed. Some of the schools’ namesakes were involved with the Confederacy, but in lesser army ranks or non-combat roles. As examples, Elizalde mentioned John H. Reagan, the Confederacy’s postmaster, and Nancy Cochran, who according to Elizalde’s research, ‘encouraged her sons” to fight for the Confederacy.’”

 

DAYBOOK:

Trump has his U.N. speech today followed by meetings with the U.N.’s secretary general and president. He will also sit down with the amir of Qatar at Lotte New York Palace Hotel before hosting a diplomatic reception with the first lady.

Pence is traveling from New York to D.C. and back today. He has a morning meeting with the high representative of the E.U. and will then fly down to Washington for his policy lunch with Senate Republicans. He’ll return to New York for a meeting with the Pakistani prime minister and Trump’s diplomatic reception.

 

NEWS YOU CAN USE IF YOU LIVE IN D.C.:

— D.C. may get a stray shower today. The Capital Weather Gang forecasts: “We are living on the edge today as the outer periphery of Hurricane Jose offers clouds and showers to the Eastern Shore and just a few clouds to the Washington area along with the chance of a pop-up shower or sprinkle.  Winds blow from the north at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts at times. Highs range from the upper 70s to the low 80s pending cloud cover timing with humidity levels in the low to moderate range[.]”

— Two new polls show a virtual tie in Virginia’s gubernatorial race. Gregory S. Schneider reports: “Democrat Ralph Northam has a slight but statistically insignificant edge over Republican Ed Gillespie in one new poll of likely voters and another new poll shows a dead heat. Northam is the pick for 44 percent of likely voters and Gillespie gets 39 percent in the University of Mary Washington survey released Monday. That five-point difference is within the poll’s margin of error of 5.2 percentage points for likely voters. … A poll of likely voters from Suffolk University in Boston finds the race evenly split at 42 percent for both Gillespie and Northam[.]”

— Former Maryland attorney general Douglas F. Gansler told The Post that he will not run for governor of Maryland. “At this point, I have no plans to enter the race,” Gansler said. “I’ve spent 22 years in government service, and I’m enjoying what I’m doing in the private sector and working with nonprofits.” (Ovetta Wiggins)

— And Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz (D) formally entered the governor’s race yesterday. (Josh Hicks)

VIDEOS OF THE DAY:

During an event to promote her book yesterday, Hillary Clinton discussed the challenges of the 2016 campaign:

The Post’s Glenn Kessler fact-checked the claim made by some Democrats that Medicare has far fewer administrative costs than private insurers:

The Post’s Libby Casey examined which of Trump’s former staffers have “spun it best” when it comes to their time in the White House:

Democrat Daniel Helmer, who is challenging Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-Va.), released this unusal campaign ad:

Jimmy Kimmel analyzed the handshake that the president and first lady shared at an event on Friday:

A robot in Italy conducted an orchestra:

And the Cincinnati Zoo welcomed a new gorilla, one year after the death of Harambe:

Trump to Speak on Common Threats; UN Leader Urges ‘Compassion’ for Migrants

By Tuesday, she said, “I would expect him to play to his base a bit and call for greater action with regards to Iran and North Korea.”

Aides have said that he will seek to explain how his “America first” approach squares with a robust international body, using the argument that nations that pursue their own interests can come together for common causes.

His address, drafted by his hard-line policy adviser, Stephen Miller, will offer challenges for a president whose most animated public speeches feed off a lively crowd response.

In the United Nations setting, where words are translated into multiple languages to an audience from varied cultures, jokes and casual references generally do not work. — PETER BAKER and SOMINI SENGUPTA

Trust ‘is being driven down,’ the secretary general warns.

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Secretary General António Guterres addressing the opening of the 72nd General Assembly on Tuesday.

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Richard Drew/Associated Press

Opening the General Assembly session, Secretary General António Guterres gravely warned about nuclear peril and climate change, and offered pointed reminders about “stronger international cooperation.”

“Trust within and among countries is being driven down by those who demonize and divide,” he said in a speech that included English, French and Spanish.

President Trump could not be seen in the hall.

To Myanmar’s government, Mr. Guterres issued a blunt directive. “The authorities in Myanmar must end the military operations and allow unhindered humanitarian access,” he said.

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He added that he was encouraged by the remarks of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi on Tuesday, but said that Rohingya people who have fled their homes must be allowed to return home in dignity.

On climate change, Mr. Guterres referred to the hurricanes that recently ravaged the United States and the Caribbean, and called for the world to step up its promises, made under the Paris climate agreement, to contain carbon emissions.

“We know enough today to act,” he said. “the science is unassailable.”

On the rights of refugees and migrants, he assailed what he called “closed doors and open hostility” and called on countries to treat those crossing borders with “simple decency and human compassion.” — SOMINI SENGUPTA

The diplomats and world leaders arrive.

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Delegates crossing First Avenue outside the United Nations headquarters in New York before the start of the General Assembly on Tuesday. By 8:45 a.m., the hall was filling up.

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Jason Decrow/Associated Press

In pinstripes, silk robes and sensible block-heeled shoes, diplomats and ministers, occasionally a head of state or government, crossed Manhattan’s First Avenue and queued up in front of the United Nations General Assembly building well before 8 a.m. on Tuesday.

The skies were gray. Dogwalkers and children headed to school competed for sidewalk space.

Prime Minister Erna Solberg of Norway, fresh from an election victory, was one of the few leaders who walked. Wearing a navy skirt suit and ballerina flats, and having crossed the avenue safely, she turned on her heels to speak to a bevy of reporters from her country. The Swedish and Finnish delegations followed closely. The Israeli ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, walked in, but not his prime minister; he would arrive later in a motorcade. Terje Rod-Larsen, a Norwegian diplomat who led the Oslo peace accords, was already in the hall.

By 8:45, the hall was filling up. The deputy permanent representative, Michele J. Sison, worked the room before President Trump’s arrival. His speech, due to begin around 10 a.m., is the most highly anticipated this year.

The president once offered to renovate the General Assembly and took issue with the green marble at the podium. “The cheap 12 inch sq. marble tiles behind speaker at UN always bothered me. I will replace with beautiful large marble slabs if they ask me,” he tweeted in October 2012.

They didn’t.

The renovations were completed in 2015. The ashtrays on the long tables where the delegates sit were converted to audio speakers.

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The long and the short of speech lengths.

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The Cuban leader Fidel Castro in 1960, when he delivered the longest ever speech at the United Nations General Assembly.

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Associated Press

Speakers are supposed to take no more than 15 minutes, a voluntary limit that has been notoriously violated.

The longest speech was Fidel Castro’s in 1960, at 4 hours and 29 minutes, which the Cuban leader began with these words: “Although we have been given the reputation of speaking at great length, the Assembly need not worry. We shall do our best to be brief, saying only what we regard it as our duty to say here.”

The shortest speech, according to the United Nations Association-U.K., was one minute, in 1948, by Herbert Vere Evatt, foreign minister of Australia, who thanked the General Assembly for electing him president. — RICK GLADSTONE

If the shoe fits, brandish it: famous speech props.

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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel showed a bomb diagram at the General Assembly in 2012 to support his contention that Iran could not be trusted. Even people at home were confused.

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Chang W. Lee/The New York Times

Khrushchev’s shoe: In his 1960 General Assembly speech (the same year as Castro’s marathoner), the Soviet leader Nikita S. Khrushchev brandished a shoe as he expressed rage at the Philippine delegation for having accused the Kremlin of swallowing Eastern Europe. Whether Khrushchev actually banged the shoe on the podium — and whether it was even his shoe — has long been in dispute.

Netanyahu’s bomb: In 2012, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel displayed a cartoonish drawing of a bomb to illustrate his belief that Iran could not be trusted in negotiations and was capable of quickly developing nuclear weapons. Critics ridiculed the prop, which also created confusion in Israel. — RICK GLADSTONE

When it’s time to speak, Brazil goes first.

Brazil has almost always been the first to speak at the General Assembly, a tradition traced to the early days of the United Nations and the Cold War.

According to Antonio Patriota, a former Brazilian ambassador to the United Nations, Brazil demonstrated deft diplomacy in presiding over the first few General Assembly debates. That, he said, convinced the two main powers — the United States and the Soviet Union — that Brazil should always speak first. The United States, the host country, has almost always gone second.

There have been some notable exceptions. In 1983 and 1984, the United States went first and Brazil second. Last year, Chad went second because President Barack Obama was running late. — SOMINI SENGUPTA AND RICK GLADSTONE

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Qaddafi’s (very) brief tenure as a Trump tenant.

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A tent to be used by Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi of Libya was briefly pitched in 2009 on a property in Bedford, N.Y., belonging to Donald J. Trump.

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Craig Ruttle/Associated Press

In 2009, as Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi of Libya was making arrangements to speak at the General Assembly, he was desperate to find a property in the New York metropolitan area that would permit him to pitch his Bedouin tent.

Colonel Qaddafi finally thought he had a willing landlord: Donald J. Trump, who owned a property in Bedford, N.Y., that was a possibility. The prospect created a storm of opposition among officials in Westchester County, and shortly after the tent was erected, the Trump Organization ordered it dismantled. “Mr. Qaddafi will not be going to the property,” the organization said. — RICK GLADSTONE

What the U.S. pays for at the U.N.

President Trump said in his speech on Monday that no country should bear a disproportionate burden of keeping the world safe and sound — “that’s militarily and financially.”

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So what does the United States shoulder at the United Nations?

Financially, Washington is the largest single contributor, paying 22 percent of the $5.4 billion core budget that keeps the lights on at the United Nations. That was calculated after a series of negotiations and based on the size of the American economy, the largest in the world.

The United States also pays a slightly larger share of the United Nations peacekeeping budget. The Trump administration’s envoy, Nikki R. Haley, succeeded this year in lowering the American share of peacekeeping costs to 25 percent from 28 percent.

Militarily, the United States shoulders virtually nothing. Of the roughly 97,000 soldiers and police officers serving on United Nations peacekeeping missions, 74 are American, according to figures released in June.

The Trump administration has proposed significant cuts in funding for the State Department and for international organizations including the United Nations. A spokesman for the global body said the cuts would “simply make it impossible” for the United Nations to maintain essential operations, including hosting Syria peace talks, monitoring nuclear proliferation and immunizing children.

Congress has pushed back a bit on Mr. Trump’s efforts to diminish American payments. For instance, the Senate appropriations committee approved a $10 million contribution to the United Nations body that oversees the implementation of an international agreement on climate change, even though the Trump administration plans to withdraw from it.

The United States was already in arrears, owing about $270 million, according to the United Nations Foundation. The latest budget proposals from Capitol Hill, which include big cuts to peacekeeping, would add $230 million to those arrears, the foundation said. — SOMINI SENGUPTA

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Iran’s president hosts a party, and gets an earful.

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President Hassan Rouhani of Iran and Secretary General António Guterres in New York on Monday.

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Kevin Hagen/Getty Images

In the New York Hilton ballroom where President Trump had held his election night victory party, President Hassan Rouhani of Iran hosted a dinner on Sunday for Iranian-Americans, a traditional part of his annual visit to the General Assembly.

Iran’s national colors — red, green and white — were projected from the ceiling. And the stage was lined with Iranian flags, behind a table where Mr. Rouhani sat alongside Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, and its ambassador to the United Nations, Gholamali Khoshroo.

Before Mr. Rouhani addressed the crowd, the Iranian delegation invited an Iranian-American woman from California to make a short speech. She was described as an activist who had helped Iranians in California vote in Iran’s election in May.

“President Rouhani, will you allow women to enter soccer stadiums?” the woman asked in Persian, looking at Mr. Rouhani directly. Mr. Zarif responded by clapping.

She went on to say that Iranian women were resilient and did great things, citing as an example Maryam Mirzakhani, an Iranian-American who was the first and only female recipient of the Fields Medal, the most prestigious prize in mathematics.

“Women should be allowed to enter stadiums, those who couldn’t should be allowed to get citizenship, and their kids should be allowed to get Iranian citizenship,” the speaker said, commenting on Iran’s nationality law, which states that only men can pass citizenship to spouses or children.

For his part, Mr. Rouhani and his subordinates extolled Iranian-Americans as model immigrants, and they rebuked the Trump administration over its targeted travel ban, which restricts entry to the United States for citizens of six predominantly Muslim countries, including Iran.

Projectors displayed videos showing what the government considers Iran’s greatest pride, including Olympic athletes, historical sites, and the launch of a missile — a move that the Trump administration has called a threat. — NILO TABRIZY

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Trump drops the bombast but calls for change.

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President Trump during a United Nations management and security meeting on Monday.

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Doug Mills/The New York Times

President Trump opened his first visit to the United Nations since taking office with a polite but firm call for the 72-year-old institution to overhaul itself and a veiled threat to pull out of the Iran nuclear agreement.

In a meeting on Monday with counterparts from around the world, Mr. Trump said that spending and staff at the United Nations had grown enormously over the years, but that “we are not seeing the results in line with this investment.”

Calling for the organization to “focus more on people and less on bureaucracy,” he said that any overhaul should ensure that no single member “shoulders a disproportionate share of the burden, and that’s militarily or financially.” He made no mention of whether he would follow through on his proposal to cut American funding for the organization.

His comments to the meeting lasted just four minutes and included none of the bombast he had directed at foreign institutions in the past. In December, Mr. Trump dismissed the United Nations as “just a club for people to get together, talk and have a good time.” — PETER BAKER and SOMINI SENGUPTA

Report on cost of refugees counters Trump view.

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A Syrian family arriving in Detroit in 2015. A draft report commissioned by the Trump administration found that refugees put a lot more money into government coffers than they take out.

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Salwan Georges for The New York Times

As President Trump considers cutting the number of refugees allowed into the United States to the lowest level in decades, his administration is grappling with a new appraisal of what refugees add to the nation: tens of billions of dollars in taxes.

One of the arguments for such a reduction is that refugees cost American taxpayers too much money. But a draft report commissioned by the administration found that refugees put a lot more money into government coffers than they take out: $63 billion from 2004 to 2014, according to the study, which was carried out by the Department of Health and Human Services and has been seen by The New York Times.

Whether Mr. Trump will address his stance on refugees during his speech before the General Assembly on Tuesday was unclear. The United Nations has repeatedly appealed to countries around the world to help resettle 1.2 million refugees fleeing war and persecution. — SOMINI SENGUPTA

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