With a looming shortage of pilots and mechanics, the future of global air transportation could rest in the hands of kids like 8-year-old Malik Lake.
Malik, who lives a few miles from Orlando Sanford International Airport, wants to be a pilot someday. The idea was sparked a few years ago when a Southwest Airlines pilot let him see the cockpit during Malik’s first flight.
“The cockpit was like..it had a lot of buttons and I was so amazed,” Lake said, his eyes widening at the memory. “I just looked at all the buttons and I didn’t even know what to say at all.”
The aviation industry is banking on the next generation of potential pilots to maintain future air travel. An estimated 1.3 million new pilots are needed to fly current and new fleets for the two largest commercial jet manufacturers, Boeing and Airbus, within the next 20 years.
Pilots and aviation experts say sweeping measures are needed soon to avoid a shortage that could increase seat demand and drive ticket prices up.
“If it continues, I think it will [affect passengers] because there will be less planes in the air,” said Bill Botson, a regional pilot for CommutAir. Botson is also part-owner of the Orlando Sanford Flying Club, a pilot-training company based near the Sanford airport.
The Cause
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University projected a pilot shortage as far back as 1993, said Mike Wiggins, a professor of aeronautical science. The main reasons:
Federal Aviation Administration raised the mandatory retirement age from 60 to 65, keeping veteran pilots in their positions longer.
Then, in 2009, a Colgan Air flight crashed into a home in western New York. That led the FAA to change safety regulations several years later, including one that required first officers — or co-pilots — to get 1,500 hours of flight time for a certification that required just 250 hours prior to 2013. This more than tripled the cost of pilot training.
Only co-pilots with military experience and college degrees from recognized institutions would require less than 1,500 hours. But they still need 1,000 hours of flight time.
Schools like Embry-Riddle have seen improved attendance as future pilots-in-training look to reduce their mandatory hours while getting an education.
“We’re pretty much maxed out in the last two years in my aeronautical science program, which has increased from about 1,170 students up to around 1,500 students,” Wiggins said.
The career path for most commercial airline pilots begins with training in smaller aircraft before ultimately qualifying for certificates to fly multiengine passenger planes. Generally, most start their careers with regional airlines, earning salaries ranging $20,000 to $40,000 a year, Botson said. Wages improve once co-pilots get enough experience to became a captain.
Regional airlines have been hit harder by the pilot shortage, often losing veteran pilots to major airlines like American, United or Delta where they can earn higher wages and fly more exotic routes.
But the problem to attract more commercial airline pilots usually starts long before their first job.
Why?
“Cost of training,” said Botson, who estimates his flight training cost about $90,000 dollars about 20 years ago. “And it’s a lot harder than what people think to do this training. They start it and they realize how hard it is and they just don’t continue. So it’s a combination of the two.”
Today, pilots might spend six-figures to train, which doesn’t include the cost of going to college.
Some pilots are able to cut the cost of training through personal connections — like having a family member who is qualified to train pilots. Most get their hours by becoming flight instructors.
The demand for commercial airline pilots is so great that it’s affecting the military. Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson reported a a need for some 2,000 pilots to shore up its near 20,000 force of active and reserve pilots.
That’s because private sector salaries are becoming more competitive, and many military pilots move into civilian pilot roles for better pay.
The Effect
The pilot shortage will change airline operations, Embry-Riddle administrators say. In fact, many pilots are already feeling the impact.
Botson said it’s common for pilots in his company to get emails offering generous incentives to work an unscheduled shift.
“It’s a revolving door right now,” Botason said “They’re barely keeping up with the pilots that they’re losing and they’re losing a lot to United, a lot to JetBlue and other major carriers.”
Some airlines are cutting flights. Two years ago, Horizon Air — the regional carrier for Alaska Air — was forced to cancel 318 flights in the summer of 2017 because there weren’t enough pilots to fly the airplanes, according to the Seattle Times.
Canceled flights are a relatively small concern for Douglas Kidd, President of the National Association of Airline Passengers.
“My main concern is that they’re taking a look at this looming pilot shortage and saying, ‘Wow, this is a good time to automate. What do we need all these pilots for anyway,’” Kidd said. “That’s the thing that scares me.”
Kidd’s concerns aren’t far-fetched. Unmanned drones are a reality, and technology for self-driving cars is already being tested by manufacturers like Lexus, Tesla and Mercedes.
Boeing executive Steve Nordlund told The Independent in 2018 that he expects to see “more automation and aiding in the cockpit, maybe a change in the crew number up in the cockpit.”
Wiggins, however, believes single-pilot or automated passenger planes in the near future are unlikely.
“Aviation is a very complex system of systems, so the airplane is just one part of it,” Wiggins said. “The pilot is one part of the system, then you’ve got the air traffic control system, then you’ve got the ground system, the airport system, the baggage system, the taxiing system, the catering system, the fueling system. All these things come into play and just getting an airplane from point A to point B is a significant part of the issue but not the total thing.”
The Solutions