Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump has been flustered by the onslaught of negative coverage generated by his new personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani, who has exacerbated his political troubles in recent days with a series of unscripted interviews, four sources familiar with knowledge of the President’s thinking tell CNN.
Prominent Republicans nationwide reveled in the news. Donald Trump Jr. mockingly shared several old tweets from the attorney general, in which he had denounced the president and expressed solidarity with victims of sexual assault; “This didn’t age well,” he wrote. Kellyanne Conway, the president’s counselor, wrote in a tweet that Mr. Schneiderman had been “drunk with power.” By early Tuesday, the president had not commented on Mr. Schneiderman’s resignation.
Mr. Schneiderman’s fellow Democrats had also called on him to step aside, with Mr. Cuomo, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and Mr. Heastie saying the attorney general was incapable of continuing in his office.
And people in both parties were quick to point out that some right-wing pundits who blasted the attorney general were also staunch defenders of President Trump, who has himself been accused of a slew of sexual abuse.
While Mr. Schneiderman’s resignation signals the probable end of a career that many had seen as gaining quick national prominence, the legal fallout is most likely only beginning.
A spokesman for Cyrus R. Vance Jr., the Manhattan district attorney, said Mr. Vance’s office had opened an investigation into the allegations in the New Yorker article. Mr. Schneiderman had, at the direction of Mr. Cuomo, himself been probing Mr. Vance’s office over questions about its handling of groping allegations against the film mogul Harvey Weinstein in 2015. A spokeswoman for the attorney general’s office did not immediately comment on whether that review would continue.
Separately, Mr. Cuomo also said on Monday that he would direct an “appropriate New York district attorney” to investigate the allegations. An administration official said Monday that the governor’s office wanted to avoid any conflict of interest and ensure the proper jurisdiction, given the attorney general’s review of Mr. Vance and the fact that some of the alleged abuse occurred on Long Island.
Mr. Schneiderman had been in contact with a criminal defense lawyer late Monday afternoon to advise him on his response to The New Yorker, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. Later, an associate of Mr. Schneiderman was looking for a lawyer to represent him in connection with the criminal investigation, several other people with knowledge of the matter said.
TEHRAN, Iran — The Latest on Iran’s nuclear deal (all times local):
8 p.m.
U.S. President Donald Trump has spoken with French President Emmanuel Macron ahead of announcing whether the U.S. will abandon the landmark international deal curbing Iran’s nuclear program.
Macron’s office said the two spoke Tuesday about “peace and stability in the Mideast,” without elaborating.
Macron vigorously supports the 2015 nuclear deal and tried to persuade Trump to stay committed to it during a visit to Washington last month. Macron suggested there could be a way to move toward a new agreement that would address Trump’s concerns as well as Iran’s ballistic missile program and involvement in Middle East conflicts.
France played an important role in negotiating the deal, holding an especially tough line against Iran’s nuclear activities. Trump has repeatedly criticized the deal.
The agreement required Iran to curb its nuclear enrichment program in exchange for relief from international sanctions.
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7:30 p.m.
Former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry says that withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal “doesn’t make sense.”
Kerry, speaking at a gathering on food innovation in Milan on Tuesday, says he challenges anyone to find an agreement tougher than the one in place now.
President Donald Trump is set to announce Tuesday whether the U.S. will exit the 2015 agreement between Iran and world powers, in which Iran agreed to curb nuclear enrichment in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.
Kerry says Iran cannot physically make nuclear weapons right now because it only has the 300 kilograms (661 pounds) of low-enrichment uranium allowed under the agreement.
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7 p.m.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is an outspoken opponent of the Iran nuclear deal, but many in Israel’s security establishment see it as a least-bad option that should be preserved.
President Donald Trump is set to announce Tuesday whether the U.S. will exit the 2015 agreement between Iran and world powers, in which Iran agreed to curb nuclear enrichment in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.
Netanyahu says the deal won’t prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons in the future, when certain restrictions expire.
But Amos Gilad, a retired senior Israeli defense official, told Israel’s Haaretz daily this week that if the U.S. withdraws “they have to prepare for alternatives, and I don’t see this being done.”
He also said the deal allows Israel to “focus on more urgent threats.”
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6:35 p.m.
European countries involved in the Iran nuclear agreement have met to underline their support for the pact hours before U.S. President Donald Trump announces whether he will continue to abide by it.
Senior officials from Britain, France and Germany met in Brussels on Tuesday with Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs, Abbas Araghchi.
In a statement, the Europeans said they “used this opportunity to reiterate their support to the continued full and effective implementation of the (agreement) by all sides.”
They are not expected to meet again after Trump’s announcement, but EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, who helps supervise the deal’s application, is likely to hold talks with many involved.
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4:45 p.m.
The European Union is underlining its support for the Iran nuclear agreement as U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to announce his verdict on the future of the deal.
European Commission spokeswoman Maja Kocijancic said Tuesday that “the agreement is working and our commitment to continue with implementation remains.”
She said the International Atomic Energy Agency has certified 10 times that Iran is complying with its obligations.
Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu say Tehran has lied about its nuclear ambitions and cannot be trusted.
Kocijancic said “this is not an agreement based on trust, but an agreement based on facts.”
Her boss, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, helps supervise the way Iran and major world powers implement the deal and settle any disputes.
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4:30 p.m.
President Donald Trump says former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry “can’t get over the fact that he had his chance and blew it” with Iran.
Trump was reacting on Tuesday to reports that Kerry quietly has been promoting the Iran nuclear deal. Kerry was the lead negotiator on the deal for the Obama administration.
On Twitter, Trump added: “Stay away from negotiations John, you are hurting your country!”
Trump is set to announce Tuesday whether the U.S. will exit the agreement reached in 2015 between Iran and world powers. Under the deal, Iran agreed to curb its nuclear weapons development in exchange the removal of economic sanctions.
Speaking at a conference in Italy, Kerry cautioned that a “new arms race” was taking place and endangering other weapons reduction treaties.
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4 p.m.
Former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, who led President Obama’s efforts to broker the Iran nuclear deal, cautioned that a “new arms race” was taking place and endangering other weapons reduction treaties.
Kerry spoke on Tuesday in Milan, ahead of President Donald Trump’s planned announcement on whether to pull America out of the nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers.
Kerry told a conference on food innovation that “dangerously, we find ourselves today with certain individuals who are talking about a new arms race,” and that the money it will cost “should be going to health and going to building schools and going to building infrastructures and building the future, instead building weapons.”
He said the moves were putting at risk both the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty that ended the U.S.-Soviet arms race.
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3:50 p.m.
Ahead of President Donald Trump’s decision on the nuclear deal, Iran’s first vice president is saying now only the “naive” would negotiate with the United States.
Iran’s semi-official ISNA news agency reported the comments on Tuesday from Eshaq Jahangiri, a popular reformist politician who has been suggested as a possible presidential contender in Iran’s 2021 election.
ISNA quoted Jahangiri as saying: “Today, the biggest power in the world is yelling that it does not accept it, it’s up to them what to do with the deal, but (from now on) naive individuals would accept to enter talks with such a country.”
He added: “We are ready and have plan for managing the country under any circumstance.”
Jahangiri’s comments suggest a coming political turn against any rapprochement with the West if Trump pulls out of the deal, especially as he is a reformist — a politician who advocates for change to Iran’s theocratic government
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3:20 p.m.
The Kremlin is warning that a “very serious situation” will emerge if President Donald Trump pulls the United States out of the Iran nuclear deal.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov made the comments on Tuesday, ahead of a planned announcement by Trump at the White House.
Peskov says that “it goes without saying that there will emerge a very serious situation” should America pull out of the landmark 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers.
Russia was one of the powers involved in the pact, which saw Iran agree to limit its atomic program in exchange for economic sanctions being lifted.
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1:30 p.m.
Iranian state TV is reporting that the country’s central bank head believes a U.S. pullout from the nuclear deal will not have a significant effect on Iran’s economy.
The Tuesday online report quoted Valiollah Seif as saying: “It doesn’t have a significant effect.”
However, many in Tehran and elsewhere in the country are worried about what Trump’s decision could mean for the country.
Already, the Iranian national currency, the rial, is trading on the black market at 66,000 to the dollar, despite the government-set rate being at 42,000 to $1.
Iran’s poor economy and unemployment already sparked nationwide protests in December and January that saw at least 25 people killed and, reportedly, nearly 5,000 arrested.
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11:30 a.m.
Iran’s parliamentary speaker says a possible U.S. pullout from the nuclear deal by President Donald Trump will lead to more unity among Iranians.
Tuesday’s report by parliament’s news website, icana.ir, quotes Ali Larijani as saying: “Mr. Trump: … Rest assured that this loyalty in nuclear issue will (encourage) the great Iranian nation to continue on the path of the Islamic Revolution firmly behind the leadership of its supreme leader.”
Trump’s tweeted late on Monday night to say that he plans to announce his decision about whether to pull America out of the deal on Tuesday.
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11:15 a.m.
Iran’s president has acknowledged the country could “face some problems” ahead of President Donald Trump’s planned announcement on whether America will pull out of the nuclear deal.
President Hassan Rouhani made the comments at a meeting at a petroleum expo in Tehran on Tuesday.
Rouhani says: “It is possible that we will face some problems for two or three months, but we will pass through this.”
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10:30 a.m.
Iran has woken up to news that President Donald Trump plans to announce his decision about whether to pull America out of the nuclear deal between Tehran and with world powers.
Trump’s tweet came late on Monday night, meaning major newspapers across Iran missed the announcement for their front pages.
Iran’s state-run television broadcaster carried the announcement at 10 a.m. local time, and Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency also carried a report on it.
Overnight, Iran’s semi-official news agencies carried the news off Trump’s tweet, while others shared foreign media reports online.
Trump’s announcement, set for the 2 p.m. EST at the White House, will come after nightfall in Iran. Iranian officials offered no immediate reaction to Trump’s upcoming decision.
Copyright 2018 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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A river of lava engulfed everything in its path after the Kilauea volcano erupted on Hawaii’s Big Island.
USA TODAY
A treacherous lava flow erupting from the Kilauea volcano on Hawaii’s Big Island destroyed more than two dozen homes, forced about 1,700 people to flee and upended a picturesque and peaceful community.
How unusual is this? The fact that Kilauea is blowing its top shouldn’t be a surprise: Kilauea, in the southeastern part of the Big Island, is one of the most active volcanoes in the world — and it has been erupting on and off for hundreds of thousands of years.
Kilauea has been erupting continuously since 1983 with only occasional pauses of quiet activity. This particular episode began late Thursday afternoon in Leilani Estates, a subdivision near the quaint town of Pahoa and 30 minutes south of Hilo.
Why is it erupting now? “We don’t know enough details about the internal plumbing to be able to give really precise answers to this question,” said Tracy Gregg, an associate professor of geology at the University at Buffalo. “The short answer is that a blob of new magma from deep below the volcano got injected up into the volcanic edifice.
“That, combined with the general instability of Kilauea volcano in general, has allowed the magma to erupt near Leilani Estates,” she said. The southeast flank of the volcano is unstable and will fall into the ocean someday, and as it slowly tears away from the rest of the volcano, it leaves an easy subterranean pathway for the magma to travel.
How long will the episode last? “There’s more magma (underground lava) in the system to be erupted. As long as that supply is there, the eruption will continue,” U.S. Geological Survey volcanologist Wendy Stovall said.
In short: This eruption could be nearly finished or could go on for a long time.
What are the dangers? At temperatures of more than 2,000 degrees, lava is one of the primary hazards of volcanoes.
As lava oozes down steep slopes, it often breaks apart into a billowing avalanche of hot rock and gas called a pyroclastic flow. Pyroclastic flows destroy anything in their path. In 1902, a pyroclastic flow from Mount Pelée on Martinique killed 30,000 people in the nearby town of St. Pierre in two minutes.
Lava flows have damaged areas around Kilauea for decades. Flows destroyed a visitor center at Kilauea in 1989 and overran the village of Kalapana on the volcano’s southeast flank in 1991, the U.S. Geological Survey said.
Who is at risk from the gases? Kilauea produces sulfuric dioxide. If there’s a lot of sulfur blown consistently in the same direction, it can kill plants and cause respiratory failure in people — as well as etch eyeglasses or car windows, Gregg said. As is typical in Hawaii, winds have blown primarily from the east during the eruption, spreading the foul air as far as 60 miles across the southern part of the island.
Kilauea is a shield volcano. What does that mean? A shield volcano is one that is broad and domed with sloping sides made up of runny, gas-poor lava that doesn’t explode.
That’s in contrast to volcanoes such as Mount St. Helens, which are made up of thick, sticky, gas-rich lava that explodes, making ash.
Is this the world’s longest-erupting volcano? No. There are submarine volcanoes along Earth’s mid-ocean ridges that have been erupting longer. Each of the Hawaiian volcanoes tends to be active for about a million years or so before going extinct.
More: Hawaii volcano has community under siege from lava flow: Here’s what we know
Is Hawaii accustomed to volcanic eruptions? Because they were formed by volcanic activity, the Hawaiian islands are no stranger to eruptions. Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea are two other huge volcanoes on the Big Island. On Maui, the volcano Haleakala makes up 75% of the island.
The deadliest Hawaiian eruption in recent history was in 1790 when 400 people were killed during an eruption of Kilauea. One of the more spectacular recent ones was in 1983, when Mauna Loa erupted, spewing lava hundreds of feet in the air.
How common are volcanoes? The USA and its territories contain 169 geologically active volcanoes, of which 54 are a very high or high threat to public safety, the U.S. Geological Survey said.
There are about 1,500 potentially active volcanoes worldwide, not including volcanoes on the ocean floor.
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Republicans currently have a 51-49 majority in the Senate, with two independents caucusing with Democrats. With Vice President Pence as the tie-breaker in the Senate, Democrats need to flip a net of two seats in 2018 to win back the majority.
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Republicans currently have a 51-49 majority in the Senate, with two independents caucusing with Democrats. With Vice President Pence as the tie-breaker in the Senate, Democrats need to flip a net of two seats in 2018 to win back the majority.
Renee Klahr/NPR
Democrats are going into the 2018 elections with the wind at their backs, which could even be enough to flip a Senate map heavily stacked for Republicans come November.
In conversations with several top GOP strategists, nearly all conceded that the overwhelming Democratic enthusiasm they’re facing this November is incredibly worrisome. Most still think it’s a better than even chance that they do keep the Senate — albeit narrowly — but it’s no longer out of the realm of possibility that the upper chamber could change hands, especially given the volatility of the GOP’s two-seat majority.
“Generally speaking, close races aren’t won by the party with the wind in their face. That’s not the way it works,” said one top GOP Senate race veteran. “If we lose 40 to 50 seats in the House, you can’t pick up three to four Senate seats.”
“If we hold the Senate, I think it will be close. It will be closer than it should be when the cycle started,” said another longtime Republican Senate operative. “There’s no question it’s far more in play than it was a year ago.”
Moreover, lackluster fundraising as of late from GOP challengers and stronger-than-expected hauls from Democratic incumbents has further stoked worry among Republicans.
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Many Republicans are already beginning to make the argument in some surprisingly volatile states like Tennessee that the Senate majority is on the line — hoping to woo voters to the polls by hammering home the implication that something as important as another Supreme Court vacancy could be left in the hands of Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer.
Still, Senate Leadership Fund President and CEO Steven Law, who runs the superPAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, recently noted that the last time the House flipped in 2010, Democrats lost the House and still managed to hold on to their Senate majority because those statewide races were more insulated from national trends.
While Republicans started this election cycle as favorites to hold the Senate, it’s increasingly up in the air as to whether Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., will hold his gavel next year.
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While Republicans started this election cycle as favorites to hold the Senate, it’s increasingly up in the air as to whether Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., will hold his gavel next year.
Win McNamee/Getty Images
“The political train in the Senate is a lot more favorable for Republicans than it is in all these House districts that were carried by Hillary Clinton … I think we’ve got a lot more terrain to play with that makes the task of defending the Senate majority, I wouldn’t say easy, but a task that we think we can undertake and win,” Law said last month on MSNBC’s Meet the Press Daily.
However, one reason Republicans were unable to flip some of those Senate seats was because of problematic nominees from their own party, and as the Senate primaries begin in earnest, they’re hoping to avoid disasters.
Overall though, Republican fortunes in keeping the Senate aren’t as good as they should be, especially given the near-perfect map they were gifted this cycle. Democrats are defending 26 seats — 10 of which are in states that President Trump carried — while Republicans have nine seats on the ballot, and only one (Nevada) in a state that Hillary Clinton carried.
Most Republicans believe Sens. Joe Donnelly in Indiana and Claire McCaskill in Missouri are their best chances to win seats currently held by Democrats. In recent weeks, one of the best bits of news for Republicans was when Florida Gov. Rick Scott announced that he would challenge Sen. Bill Nelson. The billionaire Scott can give freely to his own campaign, forcing Democrats to perhaps divert resources from other contests.
In the next tier are Democratic incumbents in states President Trump won by more than 20 points — North Dakota’s Heidi Heitkamp, West Virginia’s Joe Manchin and Montana’s Jon Tester. But even Republicans admit all three have strong political identities distinct from the national Democratic Party and that they won’t be as easy to knock off as once thought.
In addition, once-competitive states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania have slipped from being realistic opportunities, according to multiple GOP sources, both in part because Republicans have struggled to attract strong candidates. Some Republicans still mention Wisconsin as a possible sleeper race, where Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is running for re-election.
Meanwhile, Republicans are at risk of losing as many as three of their own seats. The most endangered is Sen. Dean Heller’s seat in Nevada, a state won twice by Barack Obama and by Hillary Clinton in 2016. The contest to replace retiring Sen. Jeff Flake in Arizona worries many Republicans because a late unsettled primary contest could weaken the party’s nominee in a state that’s changing rapidly. And what should be a safe seat in Tennessee is becoming anything but a sure thing, rocketing up the list of GOP concerns.
All in all, everything has to go right for Democrats to flip the two seats they need to win control of the Senate, including hanging on to most of their own endangered incumbents. But Republicans are growing increasingly pessimistic about their chances come November — and as many privately note, the environment is probably going to get worse for them before it gets better.
Hoosier and Mountaineer brawls
Contests on Tuesday will determine GOP nominees in two critical contests. West Virginia is the biggest test yet as to whether Republicans could forgo a winnable opportunity due to primary squabbles. A nasty three-way race there pits Rep. Evan Jenkins (the establishment favorite), Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (who argues he’s the true conservative candidate in the race) and coal CEO and convicted felon Don Blankenship (who’s the most Trump-like figure) against each other.
Blankenship is giving Republicans the most heartburn with a racially charged campaign that’s focused as much on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell as it is on Sen. Joe Manchin. The former CEO of Massey Energy was convicted in 2010 of conspiring to violate federal mine safety standards after an explosion killed 29 miners. He served a year in prison and is still on probation, but has painted himself as the scapegoat of federal prosecutions run amok. If Blankenship wins the nomination, Republicans fear their chances of winning would evaporate.
The GOP nomination is also up for grabs in Indiana in another bitter three-way race, this time between Reps. Todd Rokita and Luke Messer and businessman Mike Braun. Braun, who’s funding his own campaign, has styled himself the outsider in the contest, and in a memorable ad even carried around cardboard cutouts of both Rokita and Messer — who dressed similarly for an early debate — to underscore the similarities of the two congressmen.
Republicans say they’d be happy with any nominee against Donnelly, who benefited in 2012 from a gaffe-prone GOP nominee. However, in both Indiana and West Virginia, Democrats are ready to repurpose the same attacks the Republicans have been using against each other for their fall campaigns.
“Republicans are airing all this dirty laundry for us, and they’ve been doing it pretty rampantly,” said one Democratic operative involved in several Senate races this cycle.
Can Republicans overcome Democratic incumbents’ independent brands?
Donnelly and McCaskill are regarded as the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents as of now. In Missouri, McCaskill is likely to face state Attorney General Josh Hawley, who has been thrust in the unwelcome position of investigating Gov. Eric Greitens, a fellow Republican, in an increasingly messy sex and campaign finance scandal that could lead to Greitens’ impeachment.
While Republicans got a break in North Dakota earlier this year when GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer decided eventually to run for Senate, Heitkamp has made overtures to the Trump White House and still seen as an independent figure in the state. Veterans of past Senate campaigns caution she won’t be as easy as some think to knock off.
The same is true for Tester in neighboring Montana, who recently raised multiple allegations of wrongdoing against Ronny Jackson, Trump’s pick to lead the Department of Veterans Affairs, which ultimately sank his nomination. Trump has fired back against Tester repeatedly over those actions and some Republicans think the Jackson issue could hurt Tester at home. But in a state where nearly 1 in 10 residents are veterans, Tester is betting that the episode won’t have an impact on his race this fall.
Republicans find themselves on defense
The two most vulnerable seats for Republicans are in the Southwest. In Nevada, the White House maneuvered to head off a primary challenge against Dean Heller in Nevada, the most endangered GOP incumbent in the country. But in anticipation of a primary, Heller, who was once critical of Trump, also embraced Trump in a way that could have a lasting impact on his race against likely Democratic nominee, Rep. Jacky Rosen, come this fall. But Republicans counter that Trump’s numbers in Nevada, which he lost to Clinton by 2 points, have rebounded.
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In neighboring Arizona, Republicans are defending the open seat of retiring Sen. Jeff Flake. There’s a three-way late August primary there, between establishment favorite Rep. Martha McSally, conservative Kelli Ward and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, a prominent birther who Trump controversially pardoned after he was convicted of criminal contempt for defying a judge’s order to stop detaining immigrants without legal status.
McSally turned in a strong fundraising haul, even besting likely Democratic nominee, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema. Republicans believe that McSally, a former Air Force fighter pilot, has just the profile needed to hold this seat and she’s widely favored to win the primary. But the question is whether conservatives will launch an all-out assault that will damage her in the general election. And like Heller, McSally has had to embrace Trump after refusing to endorse him in 2016.
National Republicans think this race will be lost if anyone other than McSally wins, and question what Trump — who’s been complimentary of Ward and is downright chummy with Arpaio — will do. Vice President Pence’s remarks last week in favor of Arpaio when he visited the border certainly didn’t help the primary situation, either.
Volunteer majority maker?
Tennessee has emerged as the biggest wildcard that could make or break the Senate majority for both parties. Democrats scored a major coup by convincing former Gov. Phil Bredesen to enter the race after frequent Trump critic and GOP Sen. Bob Corker announced he wouldn’t run for re-election.
In recent weeks, Corker has made glowing remarks about Bredesen, whom he worked closely with when the Democrat was governor and Corker was the mayor of Chattanooga, while not even mentioning the name of the Republican, Rep. Marsha Blackburn, other than to note she would be the GOP nominee and he had donated to her campaign.
Early polls show Bredesen with a lead, but Republicans argue that he has statewide name recognition, which Blackburn does not and that the race will tighten over time. Republicans are also left hoping that their voters will come out if they know their vote means the difference between a Democratic or a Republican-controlled Senate. Still, this contest has more than a few national strategists worried.
Tennessee is more likely to flip than is Texas, despite Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s strong fundraising over GOP Sen. Ted Cruz. The only other wildcard could be the special election in Mississippi to replace Sen. Thad Cochran, who resigned last month due to failing health. There’s some conservative skepticism about newly appointed Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, a former Democrat.
Conservative state Sen. Chris McDaniel — who nearly ousted Cochran in a nasty 2012 primary — switched to this race and is challenging Hyde-Smith in an all-party open primary on Nov. 6. If no candidate gets 50 percent on Election Day, the race will go to a Nov. 27 runoff. Meanwhile, former U.S. Agriculture Secretary and ex-congressman Mike Espy is the Democrats’ best-known candidate.
Less than a week ago, Leilani Estates was the picture of serenity on Hawaii’s Big Island, a subdivision in the island’s eastern Puna district filled with wooden homes nestled in tropical plant-filled lots.
The latest eruption of the island’s most active volcano changed everything.
Shortly after Kilauea erupted Thursday, the ground split open on the east side of Leilani Estates, exposing an angry red beneath the lush landscape. From the widening gash, molten rock burbled and splashed, then shot dozens of feet in the air.
The Hawaii County Civil Defense Agency called it “active volcanic fountaining.” Some residents insisted it was Pele, the Hawaiian volcano goddess, coming to reclaim her land. Residents were ordered to flee amid threats of fires and “extremely high levels of dangerous” sulfur dioxide gas.
Soon, another such fissure had formed a few streets to the west. Then another, and another. From the vents, hot steam — and noxious gases — rose, before magma broke through and splattered into the air.
As of Sunday night, at least 10 such fissure vents were reported in the neighborhood — including two that had opened anew late Saturday night — and at least 26 homes had been destroyed, according to the county civil defense agency.
“That number could change,” Hawaii County spokeswoman Janet Snyder told the Associated Press. “This is heartbreaking.”
The U.S. Geological Survey said some of the lava was shooting 330 feet into the air — higher than the tip of the Statue of Liberty torch.
The fissures are forming along a northeast-southwest line in the rift zone, and not all of the older fissures are actively spewing lava, said Wendy Stovall, a volcanologist with the USGS.
“As the eruption progresses, there will become a preferred pathway for the magma to go through,” Stovall said. “Some of the outer vents along this fissure line will start to close up and congeal because the lava is going to essentially harden.”
Once that happens, lava fountains from the remaining open vents can shoot even higher — reaching up to 1,000 feet, Stovall said.
More outbreaks are likely to occur along the rift zone, officials said.
Drone footage showed lava spouting along the fissures that had formed, creeping toward Leilani Estates homes and leaving lines of smoldering trees in their wake.
The flows destroyed or cut off several streets in the neighborhood, typically home to about 1,700 people — before most of them evacuated last week.
Meanwhile, over the past few days some photographers have followed the fissures, posting dramatic photos and videos of lava spattering into the air or oozing across roads. Officials have urged everyone to leave Leilani Estates, where a mandatory evacuation order remains in force.
“Being in Hawaii and being around lava, you get used to the way it behaves and so you kind of become comfortable around it,” Stovall said. “[The lava flows] are mesmerizing to see. I understand why people want to see them but it’s not advisable. It’s a dangerous situation.”
The county civil defense agency put it more bluntly in an advisory Sunday: “Please, the residents of Leilani need your help by staying out of the area. This is not the time for sightseeing.”
The agency announced Sunday that certain Leilani Estates residents might be able to return briefly to their homes to retrieve pets, medicine or important items left behind — but would need to leave immediately afterward because of “the very unstable conditions of air quality and of the roads.”
“This is a very fast-moving situation,” Hawaii County Mayor Harry Kim told Hawaii News Now. “This is unfortunately not the end.”
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When Kilauea erupted Thursday, it sent fountains of lava gushing out of the ground and billowing clouds of steam and volcanic ash into the sky on the eastern side of the island.
Three days later, some residents there continue to suffer through a triple whammy of threats. From below, lava has spewed forth from an increasing number of fissures that have opened up in the ground, oozing toward homes.
Several earthquakes — including the strongest to hit Hawaii in more than four decades — have jolted the Big Island’s residents, some as they were in the midst of evacuating. Temblors have rattled the Big Island at regular intervals over the past several days — including 18 between 6 p.m. Sunday and midnight local time; another struck early Monday.
And in the air, noxious fumes from the volcano are what some officials say could be the greatest threat to public health in the wake of its eruption.
After the eruption Thursday, the island shook at regular intervals, but especially about midday Friday: A 5.6-magnitude quake hit south of the volcano about 11:30 a.m., followed about an hour later by a 6.9-magnitude temblor, according to the Geological Survey.
The latter was felt as far away as Oahu and struck in nearly the same place as a deadly 7.4-magnitude earthquake in 1975, according to the Geological Survey.
Videos posted to social media showed homes visibly shaking, items clattering to the floor at supermarkets and waves forming in swimming pools as the quake rattled.
“I think the whole island felt it,” said Cori Chong, who was in her bedroom with her foster dog, Monty, when the earthquake struck, frightening both of them. Even though Chong lives on the Hamakua coast, about an hour north of the earthquake’s epicenter, the shaking in her home was so violent that it caused furniture to move and glass to shatter.
David Burlingame, who lives about two miles west of Leilani Estates, told The Washington Post that he and a friend ran outside when the earthquake hit “and watched my house just shake back and forth.”
“Everybody is kind of on edge,” Burlingame said Saturday of both the potential for additional earthquakes and the unpredictability of the lava flows. “The worst part is kind of waiting to see, because you really never can tell what can happen.”
The earthquakes also prompted the rare closure of Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park after they damaged some of the park’s trails, craters and roads. The first earthquake triggered a cliff to collapse into the ocean, and fissures began to appear in the ground at a popular overlook near the Jaggar Museum.
Park officials said they canceled hikes Friday and evacuated about 2,600 visitors, along with all nonemergency employees.
“Safety is our main priority at Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park, and it is currently not safe to be here,” Park Superintendent Cindy Orlando said in a statement. “We will monitor the situation closely, and reopen when it is safe to do so.”
The county civil defense agency reported that the threat of a tsunami was low after the earthquakes, although officials warned that residents were not in the clear.
“Everything is still elevated,” Civil Defense Agency Administrator Talmadge Magno said, according to Hawaii News Now. “It kind of gets you nervous.”
Thursday’s eruption prompted the County of Hawaii’s managing director, Wil Okabe, to issue a state of emergency declaration. Gov. David Ige (D) also issued an emergency proclamation and activated Hawaii’s National Guard to help with evacuations.
“Please be safe,” Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) wrote on Twitter.
Jordan Sonner, a Big Island Realtor, was on another part of the island taking pictures for an upcoming listing Thursday when she “got the call that there was lava in Leilani” and rushed back to her home just outside Leilani Estates.
“To describe it in a single word: chaos,” Sonner said of the evacuation in an interview with The Post on Saturday. “My immediate threat was not the lava. It was the sulfur dioxide gas.”
It took Sonner about an hour and a half to reach her home, grab important documents and her pets — four dogs and a chinchilla — and scramble back out, she said. She’s now staying with a friend in Mountain View, about 20 miles northwest of Leilani Estates, and expects it could be a long while before it’s safe for residents to return.
“It’s so hard to tell what is going to happen because it’s just so early. This volcano being a shield volcano, the way that it erupts, it just erupts slowly,” Sonner said. “We kind of just have to sit and wait to see what direction the lava is going to flow in and what other fissures are going to open up. This is far from over.”
When asked whether she was afraid she would lose her home, Sonner paused before describing the uniqueness of the community there.
“The way I kind of look at it is, the land doesn’t really belong to us. It belongs to Pele,” Sonner said, referring to the Hawaiian volcano goddess. “We get to live on it while we can, and if she wants it back, she’ll take it. I have good insurance.”
As of Friday afternoon, at least a few hundred people had evacuated their homes in Leilani Estates and nearby Lanipuna Gardens, taking refuge at local churches, Red Cross shelters, and with family and friends in other parts of Hawaii, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) told CNN’s Jake Tapper.
Gabbard warned that, in some ways, the threat from the sulfur dioxide gas could be more dangerous than the lava flows, which had stopped in places after the eruption. If conditions worsened, even first responders would not be able to go into the affected neighborhoods to help trapped residents, she added.
“Sulfur dioxide gas can be so toxic and thick in some areas that it can be fatal, especially to those who have respiratory illnesses,” Gabbard said. “The wind can push [the gas] in different directions, so that’s a very serious concern given the high levels, and, you know, people don’t necessarily have the kinds of protective gas masks that they would need if they were right in the thick of this gas.”
Kilauea is the youngest and most active volcano on Hawaii Island, according to the USGS. The eruption from the volcano came hours after a 5.0-magnitude earthquake jolted the island Thursday morning. As The Post’s Sarah Kaplan reported, Kilauea is made of basalt, a fluid lava that makes for effusive — rather than explosive — eruptions:
Rather than building up into a steep, towering peak like Krakatau in Indonesia or Mount St. Helens in Washington state, the fluid rock at Kilauea creates a broad, shallow dome known as a shield volcano.
Shield volcanoes “are really voluminous, the largest volcanoes on Earth, but because they have those long, low-angle slopes, they’re not very dramatic,” said Tari Mattox, a geologist who worked at the Hawaii Volcano Observatory for six years. “People are surprised when they go to Hawaii and they say, ‘Where’s the volcano?’ And I tell them, ‘You’re standing on it!’ ”
… Rocks moving upward through the mantle beneath Hawaii begin to melt about 50 miles beneath the surface. That magma is less dense than the surrounding rock, so it continues to rise until it “ponds” in a reservoir that’s roughly three miles wide and one to four miles beneath the summit. As pressure builds in the magma chamber, the magma seeks out weak spots in the surrounding rock, squeezing through the earth until it reaches a vent to the surface.
Geologists said the seismic activities around Puna most closely resemble the events that precipitated a 1955 eruption, according to Hawaii News Now. That eruption lasted about three months and left almost 4,000 acres of land covered in lava, the news site reported.
More recently in 2014, lava again threatened the Puna district, specifically the town of Pahoa and its surrounding area, The Post reported. During that event, lava flowed as quickly as 20 yards per hour, and up to 60 structures were at risk.
Lindsey Bever, Allyson Chiu and Gene Park contributed to this report.
Read more:
What’s happening inside Hawaii’s Kilauea, the world’s longest-erupting volcano
Hawaii might be about to ban your favorite sunscreen to protect its coral reefs
Hawaii missile alert: How one employee ‘pushed the wrong button’ and caused a wave of panic
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