Former Taliban Hostage Joshua Boyle Charged With Sexual Assault

(OTTAWA, Ontario) — Canadian Joshua Boyle, his American wife and their children endured a long captivity in Afghanistan before they were rescued last fall and returned to Canada. Now he’s facing 15 charges including sexual assault, forcible confinement and administering a noxious drug.

Boyle, his wife Caitlan and their three children were freed in October in Pakistan, five years after the couple was abducted by a Taliban-linked militant group while on a backpacking trip in neighboring Afghanistan. The children were born in captivity.

Court documents obtained Tuesday say the charges include eight counts of assault, two accounts of sexual assault, two counts of unlawful confinement and one count of causing someone to “take a noxious thing, namely Trazodone,” an antidepressant. There is also a charge of uttering a death threat and a charge of misleading a police officer. The purported acts allegedly occurred between Oct. 14 and Dec. 30 after Boyle returned to Canada.

A publication ban bars reporting any information that could identify the alleged victims.

A hearing on the case was scheduled for Wednesday in Ottawa, but Boyle’s lawyer told The Associated Press that Boyle would not attend in person. He said Boyle was in custody.

Ottawa police declined comment. Eric Granger, Boyle’s attorney, said he had not yet seen the court documents.

“There are a number of charges,” Granger said in an email. “Mr. Boyle is presumed innocent. He’s never been in trouble before. No evidence has been provided yet, which is typical at this early stage. We look forward to receiving the evidence and defending him against these charges.”

In a statement to the Toronto Star, Boyle’s wife wrote, “I can’t speak about the specific charges, but I can say that ultimately it is the strain and trauma he was forced to endure for so many years and the effects that that had on his mental state that is most culpable for this.”

“Obviously, he is responsible for his own actions,” she added, “but it is with compassion and forgiveness that I say I hope help and healing can be found for him. As to the rest of us, myself and the children, we are healthy and holding up as well as well we can.”

Boyle told The Associated Press in October that his wife had been hospitalized in Ottawa, but did not specify why she was taken to the hospital.

Boyle also told AP that week that he and his wife decided to have children even while held captive because they always planned to have a big family.

“We’re sitting as hostages with a lot of time on our hands,” Boyle said. “We always wanted as many as possible, and we didn’t want to waste time. Cait’s in her 30s, the clock is ticking.”

Boyle said then that their three children were 4, 2 and “somewhere around 6 months.”

“Honestly we’ve always planned to have a family of 5, 10, 12 children … We’re Irish, haha,” he wrote in an email in October.

The parents of Caitlan Boyle, who is from Stewartstown, Pennsylvania, said after the rescue that they were elated she had been freed, but they also expressed anger at their son-in law for taking their pregnant daughter to Afghanistan.

Pakistani soldiers rescued the family in an operation Oct. 11 aimed at their captors from the Taliban-linked Haqqani group. The Pakistanis caught the Haqqani fighters at some point after they had moved with their captives across the border from Afghanistan. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said the operation was based on a tip from U.S. intelligence.

Boyle was once briefly married to Zaynab Khadr, the older sister of former Guantanamo Bay detainee Omar Khadr and the daughter of a senior al-Qaida financier who had contacts with Osama bin Laden.

The Canadian-born Omar Khadr was 15 when he was captured by U.S. troops following a firefight and was taken to the U.S. detention center at Guantanamo Bay. Officials had discounted any link between that background and Boyle’s capture, with one describing it in 2014 as a “horrible coincidence.”

Boyle and his family met with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in the leader’s office last month.

The Private Prophet: Mormon Church President Thomas Monson Dies At 90

Thomas Monson delivers the opening talk at the 180th Annual General Conference of the Mormon church before thousands of members in 2010 in Salt Lake City.

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Thomas Monson delivers the opening talk at the 180th Annual General Conference of the Mormon church before thousands of members in 2010 in Salt Lake City.

George Frey/Getty Images

Thomas S. Monson, president and prophet of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, died Tuesday night at the age of 90.

In a statement, church spokesman Eric Hawkins wrote that Monson died at 10:01 p.m. in his home in Salt Lake City surrounded by family.

Monson had been at the helm of the 16 million-member Mormon church for nearly a decade and will be remembered as much for his personal ministry as for his aversion to grand pronouncements. He was a traditionalist without a bold agenda whose presence as a church leader faded as he aged. In recent years, he remained quiet as the church grappled with issues like ordaining women and baptizing children of gay couples.

A storyteller

Monson was a storyteller. Many of his stories involved following an inner prompting from the Holy Spirit.

“On one occasion many years ago I was swimming laps at the old Deseret Gym in Salt Lake City when I felt the inspiration to go to the University Hospital to visit a good friend of mine,” Monson said during the October 2012 General Conference.

“I later learned from my friend that he had been utterly despondent that day and had been contemplating taking his own life,” Monson continued. “I had arrived at a critical moment in response to what I know was inspiration from on high.”

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A native of Salt Lake, many of his anecdotes took place there. Whether that was visiting the 80 widows that lived in his downtown congregation as a young bishop or dropping in to see someone at just the right time.

Monson was a young man, only 36, when called to be a full-time apostle for the church, part of the second-highest governing body. That would be unheard of today.

“He really spent most of his life serving in the church,” says William Walker, a former general authority for the church who worked closely with Monson for many years.

Walker and Monson would often travel together on assignment and during those trips, he says, Monson would always make time to meet and shake hands with as many church members as he could.

Walker remembers one time in particular when Monson had just spoken to a large gathering. Following the closing prayer, he leaned over to the church leader and said, “If we slip out the side door, I can get you back to the hotel very quickly and get you some rest.”

Monson looked at him and responded, “If Jesus was here, do you think he would slip out the side door?” Walker decided to never make that suggestion again.

On church practice and policy, Monson didn’t seem to have much of an agenda. He was a traditionalist.

“I often heard him refer to the previous leaders of the church and he wanted to follow precedent,” says Walker.

One big change he will be remembered for is lowering the age for full-time missionary service. Women are now able to serve at age 19 instead of 21. This change led to a dramatic increase in the number of missionaries serving worldwide.

But in recent years, Monson had scaled back public appearances and speeches. His health was declining and he was reportedly suffering from memory loss.

“President Monson had such a prodigious memory,” Walker says. “He could remember everybody and everything. So as [he] had to deal with that as [he] got older, that had to have been extremely challenging and difficult for him.”

A private prophet

Monson’s ill health came at an inopportune moment for the church.

“I feel like in the almost 10 years that he’s been president, it’s been a time of real turmoil for the church,” says Kristine Haglund, a Mormon writer and former editor of Dialogue magazine.

Haglund points to one recent time in particular as a stress point for church members. In November 2015, the church declared that the children of gay couples could no longer be baptized.

It was a shock for many, confusing for most and seemed to contradict a growing acceptance of LGBT Mormons. But most confusing of all was that Monson was nowhere to be found. He said nothing publicly about the decision.

“It wasn’t controversial to suggest that President Monson wasn’t necessarily in charge,” says Haglund.

Haglund says that as Monson became less and less involved in church governance, it wasn’t clear who was steering decisions like this one. He also remained quiet during a movement to ordain women that gained national attention.

During the nine years he served at the head of the church, Monson only held one press conference soon after he was called. Much of what he felt or thought about current issues was left entirely to speculation.

“Mormons generally like certainty, they like to testify of things that they know,” Haglund says. “They like to feel certain that the prophet will never lead them astray and will tell them what they should do in an uncertain time and in an uncertain world.”

For some, the past few years have been uncertain times. But, Haglund says, that’s the price of having leaders who serve for life and this likely won’t be the last time a Mormon prophet retreats during their final years.

“We have to get used to this kind of leaderlessness, or at least the diluted sense of a leader’s presence,” Haglund says.

The church has not announced who will take Monson’s place as president. A successor will not be chosen until after his funeral, a spokesman said.

But tradition is that the senior-most church apostle is called to be the next president. In this case, that would be Russell M. Nelson, a former heart surgeon who at 93 seems to be in good health.

The Health 202: Hatch’s retirement means the Senate could get even less bipartisan on health care

THE PROGNOSIS

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) speaks to reporters following a meeting with President Trump at the White House. Hatch announced Tuesday he is retiring after four decades in Senate. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta, File)

The Senate is losing a health-care heavyweight at a point of unprecedented weakness, as it struggles to move forward on just about any kind of health policy.

Utah Republican Orrin Hatch — whose 40 years in office makes him the longest-serving GOP senator —  has announced his intention to retire at the end of this year. With Hatch’s exit, the Senate will lose one of its few remaining negotiators, one of the bipartisan-minded types who have become scarce in the halls of Congress.

“He represents a different time in the Senate and I think it’s kind of sad to see the era end,” a former Hatch staffer told me yesterday. “I don’t think they make senators like him anymore.”

Pick just about any major health-care bill enacted over the past several decades and Hatch probably had a hand in it. For the whole time I’ve covered Capitol Hill goings-on, Hatch has always been a reliable source of the latest news (as long as you stood close enough to hear his barely-above-a-whisper voice). He’s chairman of the Senate Finance Committee and has sat for years on the Senate’s No. 2 health-care panel, the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee.

When Congress finally set out three years ago to replace a flawed Medicare formula that had annually threatened dramatic pay cuts for doctors, Hatch was in the middle of negotiations that eventually resulted in a new system that instead tries to reward doctors based on the quality of the care they provide.

Last September, Congress passed Hatch’s Chronic Care Act, a major victory for telehealth advocates because it allows Medicare accountable care organizations to expand virtual care for stroke and dialysis patients and builds broader telehealth benefits into Medicare Advantage plans.

But Hatch’s résumé extends way before The Health 202’s recollection. In the 1980s, he teamed up with Democratic Rep. Henry Waxman (Calif.) on major legislation that encouraged companies to manufacture generic drugs while establishing the modern system of regulating generic drugs (see yesterday’s Health 202 for more on generics). Hatch was also co-sponsor of Waxman’s Orphan Drug Act, which gave drugmakers tax breaks for developing treatments for rare diseases.

In the 1990s he worked with his dear friend, Democratic Sen. Ted Kennedy (Mass.) to create what will be perhaps his best-remembered accomplishment: The Children’s Health Insurance Program, which has been very successful in covering many low-income children and pregnant women in the United States. Although support for the program remains bipartisan, it’s at a crucial moment as states start running out of funding and the parties remain gridlocked over how to fund the program for the long term.

Hatch and Kennedy, who were often described as “a legislative odd couple,” also worked together on bills involving biomedical research, AIDS, child care and civil rights for those with disabilities.

“I think they both were brilliant legislators,” said Pattie DeLoatche, who served as a health policy staffer to Hatch for more than a decade. “Both of them had a wonderful sense of humor and they both wanted to accomplish something.”

Of course, in recent years, Hatch has also lobbed his fair share of criticisms at the Affordable Care Act alongside his fellow Republicans. In February 2015, he introduced a bill with Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) and Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.) to replace the ACA with a system that included revamped insurance subsidies and structural changes to Medicaid.

As the first senator to introduce legislation repealing the health-care law’s individual mandate to buy coverage and the employer mandate to offer it, Hatch appeared extremely gratified when the individual mandate was repealed in the GOP’s recent tax overhaul.

But through the years, Hatch has often criticized his follow senators for allowing their disagreements to escalate into bitter animosity, a state that seems more the norm than the exception in Congress these days. The old-school approach was for senators to disagree without being disagreeable — and Hatch has appeared increasingly dismayed that that’s not the modus operandi anymore.

“I’m concerned about this body and how it’s going,” Hatch told his colleagues from the Senate floor last February. “I’m hoping that we can still have our fights and still have our arguments and still have the enjoyable aspects around here of comradeship and working with each other.”

The partisan situation became even worse over the spring and summer, as the GOP worked to pass entirely one-sided health-care bills that ultimately folded in the Senate. Throughout the process, Hatch would often express skepticism to reporters, and even frustration, the process.

But clearly the soft-spoken senator loves being a senator. Former staffers say he’s not prone to working on impossible-to-pass legislation just to send a message, as many members do. Instead, he generally focuses on getting a Democratic co-sponsor for anything he truly hopes can get done.

Another former Hatch staffer recalled to me how the Utah Republican would often get lunch with Sens. Mark Warner (D-Va.) or Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). “He constantly worked across the aisle in ways the public rarely saw,” the staffer said. “The Senate will be a much less civil place without him.”

The Americans With Disabilities Act, a 1990 civil-rights law prohibiting discrimination based on disability, was among several bipartisan legislative accomplishments Hatch touted in a Deseret News op-ed published yesterday.

“During my time in the Senate, I’ve authored more bills that have become law than any other member of Congress,” Hatch wrote.

Many on Twitter offered their thoughts about Hatch and his career:

Democratic operative Hilary Rosen:

Kaiser Health News’s Julie Rovner with some perspective:

PhRMA CEO Stephen Ubl:

Politico’s Jennifer Haberkorn: 

CQ Roll Call’s Mary Ellen McIntire: 

A CVS Health Corp. store in downtown Los Angeles. Photographer: Christopher Lee/Bloomberg

AHH: If you pay any attention to the health-care industry, you’ve probably noticed a lot of blame-shifting for steep medical costs. Insurers routinely blame drugmakers and providers blame insurers for the price tag of everything. And so on. Lately, pharmaceutical companies have been working hard to peg blame for rising drug costs on pharmacy benefit managers, our colleague Carolyn Y. Johnson writes. Pharmacy Benefit Managers, or PBMs, often serve as middlemen between the patient and drugmaker.

“Who decides what you pay for your medicines? Not who you might think,” warns a PhRMA-backed radio ad airing in D.C last month. “More than one-third of the list price of a medicine is rebated back to middlemen, like insurers and pharmacy benefit managers.”

“With national and state advertising campaigns, white papers and cartoon infographics, the powerful and well-funded drug-industry lobby spent 2017 working to redirect public anger about drug prices to pharmacy benefits managers: links in the supply chain that sits invisibly between the patient and the drugmaker — in the process bringing a long-simmering feud between two big health-industry players into the open,” Carolyn writes.

Early last year, President Trump and Congress appeared ready to take on pharmaceutical prices. But drug companies’ fight with PBMs and insurers has “helped thwart any real action — splintering the problem into a multi-industry echo chamber of accusations that’s hard to comprehend, much less solve.” “The intra-industry conflict has meant that 2017 — a year when it seemed as if concerns about the affordability of drugs might translate into action — was consumed with an effort to try to unravel what is happening in the supply chain,” Carolyn writes.

(iStock)

OOF: This seems crazy, but the National Academy of Medicine has estimated the health-care system wastes around $765 billion a year — which comprises about a quarter of what we spend. Why and how, you ask? Pro Publica’s Marshall Allen explores some possible answers in a piece where he describes a warehouse in Maine filled to the brim with unused medical supplies and equipment.

“It’s hard to downplay what I found when I began investigating the issue. Hospitals throw out so many valuable supplies that a cottage industry of charities has sprung up to collect this stuff and ship it to the developing world — otherwise, all those goods in that Maine warehouse would be headed for a landfill,” Marshall writes. “Nobody tracks how much hospitals waste rather than donate, and I couldn’t track down where each item came from. But experts told me when hospitals change vendors for a type of supply, they often toss the old stuff. Or, if they take over a clinic or facility, they get rid of the items that come with it, even if they are unused and unexpired.”

Operating rooms are a major culprit. One hospital tracking the value of unused items that went to waste during neurosurgery procedures in a single year found a total of $2.9 million wasted for one type of surgery at just one hospital. Nursing homes also throw away hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of valuable medication every year, Marshall writes.

Eliminating this waste would mean a lot more Americans could get covered. “The Kaiser Family Foundation says it costs an average of $6,690 to pay one person’s insurance premium in 2017. At that rate, the $10 billion saved could insure about 1.5 million people for a year,” Marshall writes. 

Dr. Zofia “Zosia” Piotrowska checks sores in the mouth of patient Diane Legg on Dec. 5 in Danvers, MA. Legg, 55, is undergoing yet another clinical trial for treating her lung cancer that has painful side effects. (Photo by Jamie Cotten for The Washington Post)

OUCH: A growing number of cancer survivors have powerful new immunotherapy treatments to thank, yet many are also suffering from a range of dangerous side effects including arthritis-like joint pain and lung and liver inflammation. These highly touted immunotherapy treatments have downsides that many doctors don’t yet know about, The Post’s Laurie McGinley writes.

“Called checkpoint inhibitors, the new therapies offer a tantalizing chance for survival for patients with advanced melanoma and hard-to-treat cancers of the bladder, kidney and lung,” Laurie writes. “But the treatments, designed to unleash the immune system to attack malignancies, also can spur an assault on healthy organs, causing varied and bizarre side effects ranging from minor rashes and fevers to diabetes and deadly heart problems.”

“Many doctors are not up to speed on how to spot and handle an immune system revved up by immunotherapy, with symptoms that can mimic those of the flu, infections or even food poisoning,” she notes. “That lack of awareness can be dangerous, given that quick intervention is the key to preventing serious damage.”

“Immunotherapy has a completely different side-effect profile than chemotherapy, and that has caught some physicians off guard,” said Drew Pardoll, director of the Bloomberg-Kimmel Institute for Cancer Immunotherapy at Johns Hopkins University. Doctors — including emergency-room physicians, dermatologists and gastroenterologists — “need to go back to school” to learn about immunotherapy, he told Laurie.

–Maybe this is currently the best way to characterize Republicans’ approach to repealing and replacing Obamacare: It’s complicated. While it’s nearly impossible to imagine how they’d manage to pass a health-care bill with an even narrower Senate margin and during an election year, House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) said yesterday that repeal — and entitlement reform — is at the top of the GOP to-do list for the new year.

“We’re going to have to work on health care again. I’m for repealing and replacing Obamacare,” Scalise said in a Tuesday interview with “Fox and Friends.” He added that repealing the health care law’s individual mandate through the GOP tax overhaul was a good start.

“Now we need to go and fix the things wrong in health care that are jacking up the costs, so lets get back to work on some of those things, like what we passed in the House, that almost passed in the Senate, so that we can get our health-care system working and rebuild a private marketplace,” Scalise said.

Reporters must wait a few more days to badger individual House members on this question, as that chamber doesn’t return until next week. But today, we welcome back the Senate from its holiday break.

In the meantime, the ACA’s tax on medical device manufacturers has gone into effect, despite earnest attempts by the industry to get it repealed or suspended in various health-care bills and the year-end spending bill. No such luck for the industry. The 2.3 percent excise tax went into effect Monday, after being suspended for 2016 and 2017, the AP reminds us.

But device makers aren’t giving up their fight. “They still hold out hope of repealing or again suspending the tax,” the AP writes. “Despite earlier failures, industry officials say congressional backing for repeal remains strong. The next attempt could come in connection with a spending bill needed by Jan. 19 to avert a government shutdown.”

–A few more good reads from The Post and beyond:

Coming Up

  • The American Enterprise Institute holds a discussion on “Reconnecting Health Care Policy with Economics: Finding and Fixing Distortive Incentives” on Thursday.
  • The Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee holds a hearing on the opioid crisis on Jan. 9.
  • The House Veterans’ Affairs Subcommittee on Economic Opportunity holds a hearing on “Home Loan Churning Practices and How Veteran Homebuyers are Being Affected” on Jan. 10.
  • The National Academy of Sciences holds a workshop on “The Promise of Genome Editing Tools to Advance Environmental Health Research” on Jan. 10-11.
  • The House Veterans’ Affairs Subcommittees on Health and on Economic Opportunity hold a joint hearing on addressing veteran homelessness on Jan. 18.

Here’s what’s on the GOP agenda this year: 

With Sen. Orrin Hatch’s retirement, President Trump is losing an ally, and might be gaining a foe:

White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders wouldn’t say whether President Trump is open to supporting Mitt Romney for the Utah Senate seat vacated by Hatch:

Here’s what you should know about Hoda Kotb, named co-anchor of NBC’s “Today” show:

Why nuclear war with North Korea is less likely than you think


This undated photo distributed Sept. 16, 2017, by the North Korean government purports to show Kim Jong Un, right, celebrating what was said to be the test launch of an intermediate-range missile. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP)

Last night, in response to Kim Jong Un’s claim to have a nuclear button on his desk, President Trump tweeted, “I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger more powerful one than his, and my Button works!”

This is not the first time that things have gotten personal in the U.S.-North Korea standoff. Much of the rhetoric between the two leaders and media commentary on the risk of war focuses on the leadership of Trump and Kim — or “Little Rocket Man,” as Trump has called the North Korean leader.

But how much could these two singular leaders really propel us to a nuclear war? Trump’s tweets and other actions certainly can increase the risk of conflict — consistent with our research on how the decisions of individual leaders affect military conflict.

However, in this case, other factors, including geography and military capabilities, will matter more than tweets or the characteristics of leaders. And these factors reduce the likelihood of war.

Leaders can be important for international conflict

For the past few generations, political scientists who write about the outbreak of conflict mainly argued that leaders were irrelevant, focusing instead on international factors such as great power relations or domestic political factors such as whether the two countries involved had democratic institutions.

But more and more scholarship suggests that leaders make a large difference in determining whether and how countries go to war. And it’s not just in dictatorships such as North Korea; even more constrained leaders, such as U.S. presidents, matter. Leaders’ beliefs and experiences before coming into office can be critical in determining whether a country goes to war and what military strategy will be used in the event of war.

But structural forces are strong in this case

Even if leaders have discretion, they are constrained by material and situational constraints. No U.S. or North Korean leader can realistically change or avoid some of these constraints.

One constraint stems from the two sides’ formidable military capabilities, which mean that a general war with North Korea would be devastating, as Barry Posen argued last year. Even before it acquired a nuclear capability, North Korea’s artillery put tremendous pressure on South Korea. Add to that its missile arsenal — which, as nuclear experts have chronicled, can now probably deliver an intercontinental ballistic missile armed with a nuclear warhead against the United States.

A second unavoidable constraint is geography, which may make war less likely. North Korean artillery points directly at Seoul, just 35 miles from the demilitarized zone (DMZ). South Korea may oppose a war, which could influence U.S. behavior. North Korea also borders China, a powerful country whose economic support keeps North Korea afloat.

But China faces its own geographic reality with respect to North Korea, and China is increasingly frustrated with North Korea’s behavior. In the event of war, China does not want refugees flooding across the border into China. Yet China also does not want a unified Korean Peninsula with U.S. troops on its border.

Indeed, in the Korean War, the United States tested geographic constraints by pushing beyond the prewar dividing line, the 38th parallel, in an attempt to unify Korea. China intervened to prevent such an outcome, and the conflict stopped where it started.

All sides know that a war would be a huge and difficult military and political problem. So there are strong incentives to try to deter the other side, rather than escalate.

U.S. and North Korean leaders have reason to make war even less likely

Although the focus on Trump and Kim almost always suggests that their behavior increases the risk of war, they actually have strong incentives to reduce the prospect of war.

Despite rhetoric about North Korea’s irrationality, Kim’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and long range missiles was rational. He wants to stay in power, and nuclear weapons constitute invasion insurance. But a war would probably spell the end of the regime, giving North Korea little reason to start a war.

On the U.S. side, few wars have probably been war-gamed more than a conflict on the Korean Peninsula. U.S. decision-makers know how costly a war might be. Knowledge of these costs makes war less likely.

A leader-driven war would have to overcome strong structural pressures

If “leaders matter” for military decision-making, then with different leaders, we might get a different outcome. So what about Trump and Kim might lead to conflict?

One factor from Trump’s side could be risk acceptance. Trump could decide that he wants to start a war despite the costs, and count on U.S. missile defenses to shoot down North Korean ICBM launches and protect the homeland (an awfully big gamble). In theory, Trump’s lack of experience also could make him less cognizant of the costs of war and less able to draw on his more experienced advisers.

From Kim’s side, studies suggest that dictators — who face fewer checks and balances — are more risk-acceptant. With fewer people to tell them no, they are more likely to escalate in general.

If war occurs, one pathway is through a misreading of one side’s incentives by the other. For example, Kim’s desire to stay in power could lead Trump to believe that, even in the face of limited U.S. strikes against North Korean nuclear and missile facilities, Kim will back down instead of escalate. But it would be hard to credibly signal that those strikes would be limited, and if Kim believes the United States is coming after him, escalation becomes more likely.

Of course, war could also come via miscalculation and, eventually, some kind of preemptive strike. But research suggests that war spirals of that sort are extremely rare.

In war, as in elections, the fundamentals matter

Many questions in political science and history boil down to this: Do individuals or structural forces shape events?

Although recent evidence in international relations scholarship points to the importance of leaders, the North Korean standoff reminds us of the power of structural factors. That may provide some comfort to those who read the president’s tweet last night and worried about the risk of war.

Michael C. Horowitz (@mchorowitz) is professor of political science and the associate director of Perry World House at the University of Pennsylvania. He is the co-author of “Why Leaders Fight.

Elizabeth N. Saunders (@ProfSaunders) is an associate professor of political science at George Washington University. She is the author of “Leaders at War: How Presidents Shape Military Interventions.

YouTuber Logan Paul apologizes for showing body in Japan’s ‘suicide forest’


A group of schoolchildren read signs posted in the dense woods of the Aokigahara Forest at the base of Mount Fuji, Japan. American blogger Logan Paul is apologizing after getting slammed for a video he shared on YouTube that appeared to show a dead body in the Aokigahara Forest in Japan, which is famous as a suicide spot. (AP Photo/Atsushi Tsukada, File)

Logan Paul, one of YouTube’s biggest stars, treated a video he uploaded over the weekend as the equivalent of a TV sitcom’s “very special episode.” To indicate the seriousness of the matter to his young fans, Paul posted a warning at the beginning, telling viewers who are having thoughts of suicide or self harm to seek help. He also demonetized the video so that he would not earn advertising money off its views.

The now-deleted video was titled, “We found a dead body in the Japanese Suicide Forest . . .”, and that is, more or less, exactly what the vlog showed — complete with extended footage of the body of an apparent suicide victim. In a short intro, Paul called it “the most real vlog I have ever posted on this channel” and “a moment in YouTube history.”

On Monday, amid outrage on Twitter and from other YouTube personalities, the video disappeared from Paul’s YouTube channel, and the social media superstar tweeted out an apology. Paul said he “intended to raise awareness for suicide and suicide prevention” with the video, and claimed he “didn’t do it for views.”

“I’m often reminded of how big a reach I have with great power comes great responsibility,” He said. “For the first time in my life I’m regretful to say I handled that power incorrectly. It won’t happen again.”

A moment like this was perhaps inevitable in Paul’s world, where everything is content before it is anything else. The only wrong decision in this universe is to turn the camera off.

If you’re over 25, this might be the first time you’ve heard of Logan Paul. The thing you need to know about him is that he is very famous. Paul has 15 million subscribers on YouTube. Each one of his daily videos routinely gets more than 5 million views. Like his younger brother Jake Paul, who also vlogs daily on his own YouTube channel, Logan’s fans are young — tweens and under, often.

Each Paul has a boy band-like role to play in the brotherhood. Jake Paul was the bad boy, the one who lost his Disney gig after the news picked up on the mayhem outside of his former Los Angeles-area home. Until he vlogged about a dead body, Logan played the relatively responsible older brother, or at least responsible enough to still get cast in TV and movie roles.

Logan calls his fans the “Logang;” Jake’s are the “Jake Paulers.” The brothers treat fandom like a competition, pitting their viewers against each other by maintaining a mostly fake, on-camera rivalry to see who can get the most YouTube views or merchandise sales.

It works, and because of their success, the brothers have become the prosperity gospel preachers of social media stardom, inviting their young fans to follow in their vlogging footsteps. Your daily life, the gospel says, is meant to be monetized, just as the Pauls have done. Jake Paul’s catch phrase is “It’s every day, bro,” which explicitly refers to the fact that he posts a new vlog about his life, every day. He turned “it’s every day bro” into a rap video that, while mocked into the meme stratosphere for its horrible lyrics, currently has more than 167 million YouTube views.

Experiences that don’t become content are, in the Pauls’ world, money and influence left on the table. The daily vlogging gospel only promises wealth and influence if your life on camera is interesting enough to deserve it.So in this context, consider that Logan Paul had footage of a dead body — and more importantly, his own on camera reaction to seeing a dead body for the first time in his life. As I said, it was inevitable.

Dozens of research studies suggest that media sensationalizing suicide, showing it extensively and graphically as this vlog did, can put vulnerable individuals at risk. But that research doesn’t seem to register as even a blip for Logan Paul.

The now-deleted video reveals something else: from the moment Paul walked into that forest, he intended to make a video about death and suicide. But his original plan was to fake it, treating the Aokigahara — where dozens of real corpses are found every year — like a haunted house.  They were going to camp overnight in the forest. When it was dark, they’d pretend to see things, maybe a dead body. It’s the sort of video that tons of YouTubers make while visiting Japan.

Several minutes into the video, Logan and his crew are walking in broad daylight to find a place to camp, like the other YouTubers who have visited this forest for content before them have done. Then they find the body. They move in closer, camera rolling. Logan zooms the camera he is holding in on the body, closer still. He then turns the camera on himself.  “I’m so sorry about this Logang,” Paul said, using the nickname for his millions of YouTube fans, “this was supposed to be a fun vlog.”

Still standing there, feet from the body of an apparent suicide victim, Logan tells his viewers that “we came here with an intent to focus on the haunted aspect of the forest, this just became very real and obviously a lot of people are going through a lot of s— in their lives.”

“Suicide is not the answer, guys, there are people who love you and care for you,” Paul said.

Later, Paul and his crew are beginning to freak out.  “I’ve never seen a dead person. Like, I’ve never discovered a dead person,” Paul says. But standing there, it’s clear that they have already decided to use this footage. Paul tells his viewers that they will be blurring the face of the victim to protect his identity. Authorities have not yet arrived.

“This is the most real vlog I’ve ever made,” Paul says. “400 vlogs And I’ve never, I’ve never had a more real moment than this.”

The vlog is now gone from Paul’s channel. But before it went, a cached version shows, the video had hundreds of thousands of likes and more than 6 million views.

More reading: 

Trump urges Justice Department to ‘act’ on Comey, suggests Huma Abedin should face jail time


Hoda Kotb becomes official co-anchor of ‘Today’ after Matt Lauer firing

CLOSE

Hoda Kotb and Savannah Guthrie are Today’s new anchor team.
Time

Hoda Kotb has been named a permanent co-anchor of the Today show alongside Savannah Guthrie following Matt Lauer’s firing amid sexual harassment allegations. 

Lauer’s ouster in November left a major opening for the morning program, which Kotb filled temporarily until the announcement Tuesday made her position permanent. 

“This has to be the most popular decision NBC News has ever made,” Guthrie said at the top of the broadcast. 

NBC News chairman Andy Lack shared the news in a staff memo Tuesday morning. “Over the past several weeks, Hoda has seamlessly stepped into the co-anchor role alongside Savannah, and the two have quickly hit the ground running,” he wrote. “They have an undeniable connection with each other and most importantly, with viewers, a hallmark of Today.” 

More: Matt Lauer’s ouster creates problems for NBC leadership, and future of ‘Today’ show

More: Replacing Matt Lauer: Is the era of the big-name TV news anchor over?

Guthrie and Kotb will co-anchor the 7-9 a.m. hours, along with Al Roker and Carson Daly. Kotb will also continue co-hosting the 10 a.m. hour with Kathie Lee Gifford, a role she has held since 2008.

NBC fired Lauer on Nov. 29 after receiving what Lack called a “detailed complaint” about “inappropriate sexual behavior in the workplace.” 

Hours later, Variety published the results of a two-month investigation focusing on three women who identified themselves as victims of sexual harassment by Lauer.

The women, who spoke anonymously for fear of professional repercussions, detailed how Lauer used his position of power over NBC employees who would be reticent to complain because of his prominent position in the company. According to the outlet, Lauer developed a pattern of inviting women late at night to his hotel room while covering the Olympics over the years, and to his secluded office within 30 Rockefeller Center. 

Addie Collins Zinone, one of as many as eight accusers, came forward publicly, describing how a newly married Lauer seduced her into sexual encounters in his dressing room, a bathroom and his office when she was a 24-year-old production assistant.

Regarding the allegations, Lauer said in a statement following his ouster that “there is enough truth in these stories to make me feel embarrassed and ashamed. I regret that my shame is now shared by the people I cherish dearly.”

“There are no words to express my sorrow and regret for the pain I have caused others by words and actions,” the statement continued. “To the people I have hurt, I am truly sorry. As I am writing this I realize the depth of the damage and disappointment I have left behind at home and at NBC.”

The question of who would replace Lauer, 60, the biggest star of morning television with a nearly 21-year run anchoring Today, swirled over the last month. However, viewers tuned in, bumping up ratings, and the NBC morning show beat ABC’s Good Morning America in the first week of December for the first time in three months, according to Nielsen.

Gary Levin contributed to this report. 

More: Matt Lauer scandal: Lawyer for accuser blasts NBC, ex-intern describes predatory affair

More: After Matt Lauer firing, NBC gets ratings boost

 

Fan Favorite the Mooch Denies He’s Returning to Trump’s White House

2018 just got interesting.

Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

The list of departed Trump administration figures is filled with fascinating characters, from private plane enthusiast Tom Price to Orbit gum addict Sean Spicer. But there was one official who managed to leave us wanting more. Anthony Scaramucci burst into the White House briefing room last July with a delightful nickname, a complicated history with the president, and an already-simmering feud with White House chief of staff Reince Priebus. Eleven days later, he left in a blaze of profanity-laced glory.

For a few hours on Monday night, the Daily Beast gave us hope that our favorite former Trump communications director (sorry, Dubke) might be back for an encore performance. They reported:

The former White House communications director has privately told friends and associates that the president and other members of the Trump family, including White House adviser and first daughter Ivanka Trump, miss him and want him back in the West Wing. Three sources close to Scaramucci have independently told The Daily Beast that the Mooch continues to brag that he and President Donald Trump talk on the phone, and that the Mooch believes his resurrection in Trump-world could be imminent. One of these sources said that the Mooch claimed he was flying out to either Washington, D.C. or Mar-a-Lago early this month to meet Trump to talk about it.

Unfortunately, they were unable to find anyone who considered this a plausible scenario. “It would amaze and shock me if the president still talks to [Scaramucci] or is considering rehiring him after what happened,” a senior White House official said. “And that is coming from someone who works in a place where nothing surprises me anymore.”

A short time later, the Mooch himself poured cold water on the report.

But it’s easy to see why someone might think it’s possible that Scaramucci is returning to Trump’s White House – or at least, that Scaramucci is claiming he’s returning to Trump’s White House.

When asked about his future plans days after his firing, Scaramucci told the Huffington Post, “I am now going to go dark,” adding, “then I will reemerge … as me.”

Weeks later he reemerged with a mysterious media company called the Scaramucci Post, notable mainly for its Holocaust denial scandal. Then in November he stoked rumors of his return, telling the Associated Press that he sees himself working with Trump in the future.

“I have very good relationships there still, and you have to remember we were a team for 18 months, and so we all had different roles. And so I’m still playing my role frankly. I’m an advocate for the president, media surrogate when I need to be,” Scaramucci said.

He’s continued aiding the administration in that capacity, appearing on CNN’s State of the Union last weekend to put a less scientifically unsound spin on Trump’s recent call for more global warming.

Scaramucci did warn us back in November that it’s unlikely that he’ll score another White House gig. “At some point I’ll probably be more involved from the outside, but more in a reelection capability than from inside the administration,” he said.

But this is a White House where where unqualified relatives can serve as top advisers and former Apprentice stars can cause a scene outside the president’s private residence (allegedly). Can you really blame people for holding on to the dream of another 11 days with the Mooch in charge?