President Trump announced a radical departure in U.S. Middle East policy on Wednesday by declaring the United States’ recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. This recognition fulfilled a campaign promise and delivered on a long-standing Israeli demand, while infuriating Palestinians, Arabs and most of the international community. Although it will take years for a new U.S. Embassy to open, and Trump carefully noted that the borders of Jerusalem would have to be determined through negotiations, there was a strong sense of an irrevocable shift.

Here are three things to understand about the regional politics of Trump’s Jerusalem gambit.

There is no real peace process to disrupt

Much of the commentary about the recognition has focused on its effect on Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. This is probably overstated.

The status of Jerusalem has always been one of the key issues set aside for final status negotiations. Recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital has traditionally been understood as a major concession that could be offered to Israel in exchange for an agreement on other issues such as borders, settlements or the return of Palestinian refugees. Trump gave Israel this prize for nothing, while offering Palestinians nothing of consequence in exchange. While preemptively giving away a prime bargaining chip seems like an odd negotiating tactic, a number of commentators and former diplomats have made the case that moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem could actually help peace negotiations.

Most likely, the recognition of Jerusalem will have none of the promised benefits for negotiations and relatively few of the threatened costs. This is not because Jerusalem does not matter, but rather because there is no real peace process to disrupt, little meaningful prospect for a two-state solution to squander, and little belief in U.S. neutrality to violate.

Despite the occasional diplomacy, there has not been any meaningful Israeli-Palestinian peace process since the 2000 failure of the Clinton administration’s Camp David Summit. The George W. Bush administration began peace talks only belatedly and to little effect. The Obama administration quickly backed away from its more serious bid for peace talks in the face of political backlash, negotiating stalemate and a need to focus on other critical priorities such as the Iran nuclear agreement. In the intervening decades, the realities on the ground have changed immeasurably, and probably irrevocably, in ways that have made a two-state solution untenable.

The recognition does matter for U.S. regional strategy

It does matter, however, that Trump’s gambit may derail peace negotiations, which have long played an important role in facilitating other regional objectives. The visible pursuit of peace, if not its achievement, has long been the mechanism by which the United States reconciles its alliances with Israel and with ostensibly anti-Israel Arab states. Trump’s gamble has less to do with peace than with whether this cover is still needed.

For all its tactical and messaging incoherence, the Trump administration has been pursuing a fairly clear Middle East strategy that is well within the bounds of the normal. At the broadest level, Trump seeks to bring key Arab states and Israel together in a strategic alliance against Iran and Islamic extremism. There is nothing new about such an ambition. Every U.S. administration has sought to reconcile the contradictions of simultaneous alliance with Israel and with key Arab states. Each administration has concluded, either initially or after hard experience, that the pursuit of Israeli-Palestinian peace is necessary to sustain that regional architecture. With Egypt and Jordan locked in to American-brokered peace treaties, the focus of these efforts has long been Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states.

Trump’s Jerusalem gamble is thus less about the prospects for Israeli-Palestinian peace than about whether Arab-Israeli alliance against Iran can be achieved in its absence. Israel’s tacit cooperation with Gulf states against Iran, long kept in the shadows, has increasingly been brought into the open despite the absence of Israeli-Palestinian peace. The Jerusalem gambit may well force a public reckoning over this semiprivate alignment.

Regional politics will determine whether the gamble succeeds

The major trends in regional politics could well make this gamble pay off. Saudi Arabia and its key partners have made it clear that they view regional confrontation with Iran as their most urgent strategic priority. Arab regional politics are profoundly polarized and fragmented, in part because of the six-month-old Saudi-United Arab Emirates campaign against Qatar. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has reveled in shattering norms over the course of his rapid consolidation of power. After his startling arrest of hundreds of princes, treatment of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and stubborn disregard for the humanitarian costs of the blockade of Yemen, who could rule out another transgression against the old rules of Arab politics?

Palestinian territories continues to be one of the few unifying issues among these deeply divided Arab publics. There is little question that Arabs still care deeply about Palestinian territories, or that Jerusalem has particularly salient emotional and political resonance. That concern may be latent, but survey research and social media data alike show that it is real and intense. The key question is whether this public opinion can have any meaningful effect on the policies of Arab states. Arab public attention in recent years has been focused on the wars in Syria and Yemen, and on domestic political turbulence. Public mobilization in most Arab countries faces steep obstacles following the harsh resurgence of brutal forms of authoritarianism.

Arab regimes thus far have aligned themselves with public anger over Jerusalem, suggesting that they understand the need to tread carefully. A regional focus on Palestinian territories would tilt the political balance away from the Saudi-UAE bloc and could offer its Qatari rivals a political lifeline. Even Arab regimes closely aligned with the United States have publicly criticized the recognition of Jerusalem, and allowed critical views to appear even in usually tightly controlled media and public space. They probably fear losing political ground to Qatar, as well as to Iran, popular movements, or to media platforms such as Al Jazeera that embrace mobilization over Jerusalem. They also cannot help but fear anything that brings protests back into the streets, rekindling the hopes for political change from below which regimes have systematically sought to extinguish over the past five years.

The dynamics are similar to the political fallout over Israel’s wars against Hamas in Gaza. The key question is whether Arab regimes do anything more to protest the recognition, or return to cooperation with the United States and Israel against Iran once the passions have faded. The Trump administration is probably right that they will do so quickly, barring the emergence of serious, sustained Palestinian mobilization that forces them into a tougher stance.

They would sometimes wake in the night to hear a disembodied chirping somewhere in the room, or a strange, low hum, or the sound of scraping metal.

Sometimes they felt a phantom flutter of air pass by as they listened. Others in the room would often not notice a thing, the Associated Press reported, and the noises would cease if the person moved just a few feet away.

And then, usually within 24 hours of these bizarre events, bad things happened to those who heard the noises.

What exactly two dozen Americans experienced at the U.S. Embassy in Cuba — in incidents last year and then again in August — remains a mystery to science and the FBI. They have alternately been blamed on a high-tech sonic weapon or a mysterious disease, and have caused a diplomatic crisis because U.S. officials blame Cuba for the attacks.

Now physicians are preparing to release a report on what happened to the people who heard the sounds, the AP reports, including physical changes in their brains.

Workers and their spouses at the U.S. diplomatic compound in Havana began complaining of maladies in late 2016, as Anne Gearan wrote for The Washington Post, after hearing strange, localized sounds in their homes.

Their symptoms included a loss of hearing or sight, vertigo and nausea. Some people struggled to recall common words.

For lack of other explanations, U.S. officials initially blamed a “covert sonic weapon,” the AP reported. Although medical experts largely dismissed the theory, the United States continues to blame the incidents on the Cuban government and has recalled many diplomatic workers, and considered closing the embassy, which opened in 2015.

[All the theories about what’s happening to the diplomats in Cuba]

Meanwhile, the AP reported, physicians at the University of Miami and the University of Pennsylvania have been treating the victims and trying to figure out what happened to them.

While what caused the phantom sounds is still unknown, tests have revealed at least some of the workers suffered damage to the white matter that lets different parts of their brains communicate with each other.

The physicians are planning to publish their findings in the Journal of the American Medical Association, according to the AP, which quoted several unnamed U.S. officials who aren’t authorized to talk about the investigation.

The discovery only deepens the mystery, and makes the possibility of a sonic attack even less likely in the eyes of medical experts. As The Post has written, other theories include an electromagnetic device, chemical weapons or a hitherto unknown disease.

[Was a spy’s Parkinson’s disease caused by a secret microwave weapon attack?]

“Physicians are treating the symptoms like a new, never-seen-before illness,” the AP wrote, and expect to monitor the victims for the rest of their lives, although most have fully recovered from their symptoms by now.

The physicians are working with FBI agents and intelligence agencies as they look for a source, and U.S. officials have not backed down from their accusations against the Cuban government, which denies any involvement despite a history of animosity between the two countries.

“What we’ve said to the Cubans is: Small island, you got a sophisticated security apparatus, you probably know who’s doing it, you can stop it,” Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said at a news conference at NATO on Wednesday.

He said he’s told U.S. officials to withhold any personal information about the victims from the Cubans — and “not to provide whoever was orchestrating these attacks with information that is useful to how effective they were.”

 Carol Morello contributed to this report.

Read more:

Trump blames Castro regime for injuries to U.S. diplomats: ‘I do believe Cuba is responsible’

U.S. investigating whether American diplomats were victims of sonic attack in Cuba

U.S. slashing embassy staff in Cuba, issuing travel warning because of apparent sonic ‘attacks’

U.S. considering closing its embassy in Cuba

Ferocious wildfires continued to rage across Southern California on Wednesday, destroying hundreds of homes and forcing thousands of residents to flee as forecasters and officials warned that dangerous fires could endanger the region for days.

The wave of fires that broke out early this week spread quickly and mercilessly, with the largest blaze expanding across a region almost as big as the city of Orlando. Emergency responders hurried to evacuate residents, protect homes and shut down roads across the region, even as authorities warned that the biggest fire was “still out of control” early Wednesday and keeping crews from entering the area.

This largest fire, known as the Thomas Fire, erupted in Ventura County northwest of downtown Los Angeles. The Thomas Fire tore across 65,000 acres by Wednesday morning, and the blaze destroyed hundreds of homes, threatened 12,000 structures and forced 27,000 people to evacuate, officials said. Most of those who fled were left wondering whether their residences were among those destroyed.

More than 1,000 firefighters were on the scene, county officials said in a notice posted online, but they were unable to enter the fire area “due to the intensity of the fire.” Stretches of cities and communities were evacuated, while numerous schools across the area were shut down.

[ ‘Armageddon’: Apocalyptic images show the devastation caused by Southern California fires ]

In Los Angeles County, firefighters rushed to a pair of blazes that broke out on Tuesday. The Creek Fire north of downtown Los Angeles burned across 11,000 acres by Tuesday night, while the smaller Rye Fire churned through 7,000 acres by Wednesday morning.

On Wednesday morning, authorities responded to yet another blaze, this one in the city of Los Angeles. The growing brush fire — dubbed the Skirball Fire — prompted a wave of evacuations in the Bel Air area, which is home to numerous multi-million dollar residences. This fire also shut down the famously congested Interstate 405 “for an unknown duration,” the California Highway Patrol said, and because it was burning not far from the Getty Center, that facility kept its doors closed on Wednesday.

The fires across the southern part of the state tore through neighborhoods, burning out cars and homes, sending thick waves of smoke into the air and leaving behind waves of ash and destruction. Thousands of people also lost power due to the fires.

Gov. Jerry Brown (D) declared states of emergency in Los Angeles and Ventura counties due to the fires, and his office said the blazes threatened thousands of homes.

“It’s critical residents stay ready and evacuate immediately if told to do so,” Brown said in a statement.

[ Santa Ana winds sparked a critical wildfire threat in Southern California ]

On Wednesday morning, President Trump’s Twitter account posted a statement of support for people in the path of the wildfires and urged them to listen to local and state officials. He also referred to the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s announcement that it had approved assistance grants to help pay for emergency work responding to the California fires.

These latest wildfires come during a brutal year for California, burning just months after deadly blazes in the state’s wine country killed dozens of people and razed thousands of buildings. Wildfires need three things to start and spread — fuel, dry weather and an ignition source — and the fires this week had ready access to all three.

The fire’s fuel was a year in the making. After an epic, multiyear drought, California finally got the rain and snow it needed last winter, and that allowed vegetation to rebound. The hills turned green and the brush thickened. But as the weather turned dry, it created plentiful amounts of fuel, which are now feeding the wildfires.

[ Thanks to climate change, the weather roasting California and freezing the East may thrive ]

Cal Fire said it has moved resources from the northern part of the state to the south and prepared aircraft and fire equipment to respond. Tim Chavez with Cal Fire said a lack of rain in the region in recent months has made conditions particularly susceptible to a wildfire.

“This year … no rain came in September, October and November in Southern California. So we have incredibly desiccated dry fuels,” he said.

The National Weather Service said the risks could last through Friday, issuing “red flag” warnings of heightened fire risk for Los Angeles and Ventura counties through Friday. A combination of low humidity and surging winds could lead to “very rapid fire growth” and “extreme fire behavior,” the service warned.

Aerial images showed huge clouds of thick smoke billowing around the Los Angeles region.

What happens when people live in areas where natural disasters can erupt

‘The night America burned’: The deadliest — and most overlooked — fire in U.S. history