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Catastrophic Hurricane Irma — now a Cat 5 — is on a collision course with Florida

This story has been updated with the latest National Hurricane Center forecast and model information through 5 p.m. eastern.

Hurricane Irma is an “extremely dangerous” Category 5, barreling toward the northern Lesser Antilles and Southern Florida. It’s already the strongest hurricane ever recorded outside the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, and it’s likely to make landfall somewhere in Florida over the weekend.

If it does, the impact could be catastrophic.

The storm is life-threatening for the United States, including Puerto Rico, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas. Hurricane warnings have been issued for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and the Turks and Caicos. A hurricane watch covers Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas.

With maximum winds of 185 mph, Irma is tied for the second strongest storm ever observed in the Atlantic.

The hurricane is expected to remain at least a Category 4 for the next few days with minor fluctuations in intensity. It could even become slightly stronger, but has neared the theoretical limit for how strong it can get given ocean temperatures.

It cannot be overstated that Hurricane Irma is extremely dangerous and will produce the full gamut of hurricane hazards across the Caribbean and potentially in South Florida, including a devastating storm surge, destructive winds and dangerous flash flooding.

All of Florida — especially South Florida and the Keys — should be preparing for a major hurricane landfall on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to arrive as soon as Friday.


(National Hurricane Center)

Mainland U.S. landfall threat

Computer models are in strong agreement that by Saturday, Irma will be approaching the Florida Keys — where dangerous storm conditions are likely. Then, they show a sharp northward turn by Sunday morning. The precise timing and location of the turn has huge implications for Florida.


Group of model simulations or ensemble members from the European (red) and American (blue) computer models. (StormVistaWxModels.com)

It is impossible to say with certainty whether Irma will track up along the eastern side of the Florida peninsula, the western side, or straight up the peninsula. Since the weekend, models have generally shifted westward with the storm’s forecast track, which means interests along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico should also closely monitor this storm.

For a major hurricane, the exact track of the storm’s eyewall — the zone surrounding its calm center — is critical as it will determine where the most severe effects tend to concentrate. The most violent winds coincide with the eyewall, and the biggest storm surge occurs just to its right (or north).

But as Irma is such a large and powerful hurricane, very dangerous weather will also occur up to 200 miles away from the eyewall — including coastal surge, flooding rains and potentially damaging winds.

“The hurricane force winds in Irma are wider than Florida,” tweeted Bryan Norcross, hurricane specialist at the Weather Channel. “You won’t need a direct hit to get Wilma-type winds  storm surge on both coasts.”

Beyond the weekend, the scenarios really depend on which side of Florida it tracks. But for now, it’s safe to say that the southeast United States, including the Florida panhandle, Georgia and the Carolinas, should also brace for potential impacts, such as flash flooding, storm surge and strong winds.


Seven-day cumulative rainfall forecast. (NOAA/WPC)

Impact on the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico

At 5 p.m. Tuesday, the powerhouse storm was positioned 130 miles east of the island of Antigua in the northern Leewards, where it is forecast to make a direct impact early Wednesday. The storm was moving westward at 15 miles per hour and the Hurricane Center warned weather conditions would soon deteriorate.

Destructive winds as well as heavy rain (8 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches) that can produce flash flooding and mudslides are possible in the warning areas. Along the coast, the storm surge height – or rise in water above normally  dry air  – could reach  7-11 feet – especially just north of the storm center.

Irma is likely to become the strongest hurricane on record to hit the Leeward Islands, even more intense than David, which raked across the central Leeward Islands in 1979. “David was a horrible hurricane for Leeward Islands: 56 fatalities in Dominica,” tweeted Phil Klotzbach, hurricane expert at Colorado State University.

Antigua, Barbuda, Saint Kitts and Anguilla — in particular — are right in the path of the storm.

“Really feel for the northern Leeward Islands,” tweeted National Hurricane Center forecaster Eric Blake. “A hurricane this strong there only comes around once a generation or two.”

Areas affected by the core winds near the storm’s eye face devastating wind destruction. The Hurricane Center provides this description of the damage inflicted by Category 5 winds:

A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

After passing the northern Leeward Islands, the hurricane will strike the British Virgin Islands with potentially catastrophic effects.

The U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico may remain south of the storm’s center, so less prone to Irma’s most hostile conditions. But even so, damaging winds and torrential rains are likely along with a significant storm surge at the coast.

Irma’s place in history

Irma’s peak intensity so far ranks among the strongest in recorded history, exceeding the likes of Katrina, Andrew and Camille – whose winds peaked at 175 mph.

Among the most intense storms on record, it only trails Hurricane Allen in 1980 which had winds of 190 miles per hour. It is tied for second most intense with Hurricane Wilma in 2005, Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 and the 1935 Florida Keys hurricane.

If Irma makes landfall as a Category 4 or higher in the United States, joining Hurricane Harvey, it will become the first time two storms so strong struck the United States in the same season.

Tropical Storm Jose forms in eastern Atlantic

While all attention is on Hurricane Irma, Tropical Storm Jose formed in the eastern Atlantic Tuesday morning. This storm is also predicted to intensify into a hurricane over the coming days, but the latest track forecast keeps it away from land areas for the most part.


(National Hurricane Center)

Read more: 

The truth about Harvey and climate change is in the middle

Texas continues Harvey recovery efforts as Hurricane Irma looms in the Atlantic

The Politics of the DACA Fix

President Trump’s decision to cancel DACA, an executive-branch program giving work permits to illegal immigrants who arrived as minors, is a huge gamble. If the Republican caucus tries to pass a stand-alone fix along the lines of the DREAM Act (which would give full legal status to those covered by DACA), it could be in a lose-lose situation: Either it will succeed and infuriate the GOP base, or it will fail, as numerous attempts to pass the DREAM Act have in the past. If, however, the caucus unifies around a deal trading the DREAM Act for center-right immigration reforms, it could advance conservative policy goals and strengthen its political hand.

Attempting to pass a stand-alone DREAM Act is a massive political trap for Republicans. If the bill succeeds, it could cause a backlash from the Republican grassroots, who would perceive Republicans in Congress as putting a greater priority on amnestying illegal immigrants than on increasing enforcement or reforming legal immigration so that it is more sustainable. Activists might be particularly piqued to see the DREAM Act glide to passage while the reform of the Affordable Care Act languishes. Passing a stand-alone DREAM Act could also fuel more rancorous primary battles and potentially suppress turnout in 2018, especially in crucial battles. For instance, if Arizona’s Jeff Flake hopes to survive reelection, he’ll need a substantial turnout from the Republican base in both the primary and general elections.

But trying to pass the DREAM Act and failing would invite its own political dangers. Polling shows that many Americans are open to granting legal status to those who came illegally as minors. The media, with an assist from some Republicans, will provide a drumbeat of stories showing the plight of especially sympathetic “DREAMers.” In certain key races, the failure of the DREAM Act could be a wedge issue. Especially now that the president rather than the courts has ended DACA, Republicans own the decision, which puts more political pressure on them to find a replacement.

Thus, a stand-alone DREAM Act hurts Republicans whether it succeeds or fails. In a politically polarized time, depressing the grassroots probably harms the GOP’s midterm chances more than disappointing some swing voters does, but both inflict a cost.

Perhaps the surest way to mitigate these political dangers is to bundle the DREAM Act with immigration reforms that measurably advance conservative goals on immigration. What would these conservative goals be? One would be improving immigration enforcement. But an enforcement-only approach to immigration misses the broader importance of reforming the structure of the legal-immigration system. As Reihan Salam has suggested, conservatives should try to reform the immigration system so that it helps immigrants become equal partners in American society and ameliorates rather than exacerbates social divisions. Revising the legal-immigration system so that it prioritizes skills and the nuclear family would seem a crucial step in that direction.

If Republicans can package the DREAM Act with immigration policies that appeal to populist voters, they can reinvigorate their base without alienating swing voters. Moreover, they would show that they can govern.

However, some difficulties face any prospective DACA deal. The first is the exact constitution of this deal. Trading the DREAM Act for some funds for border security — even some funds for fencing — should be viewed as a bad deal. The fact that some in the federal judiciary have discovered a Trump exception to the Constitution (in which President Trump’s actions are subject to unique constitutional scrutiny) means that there is no guarantee that a funded portion of border fencing would actually be built. Lawsuits would spring up to frustrate any effort to erect that fencing, and a member of the judicial “resistance” could stymie the project for years. Moreover, border security does not begin to address the challenges of illegal immigration. A substantial percentage of illegal immigrants crossed the border legally at first — according to a recent report by the Center for Migration Studies, as many as two-thirds of recent illegal immigrants are visa overstayers. No matter how high, no wall will address this problem. This means that merely trading border security for the DREAM Act could be a substantial strategic mistake.

In terminating DACA, President Trump has invited this political battle, so the White House has a particular responsibility to be measured and careful in the way it talks about immigration.

Instead, Republicans might be wise to push for both enforcement and immigration-reform commitments in a DACA deal. Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton has offered a plausible framework for this deal: the RAISE Act and universal E-Verify for the DREAM Act. The first would reduce “chain migration” and thus make it easier to make a deal on legalizing illegal immigrants (because newly legalized immigrants wouldn’t be able to sponsor an ever-growing “chain” of relatives); the second would put in place a sustainable mechanism for internal enforcement, requiring all employers to verify the immigration status of their workers. Compromises could be made within that framework; for instance, a first pass of legal-immigration reform might cut only some family preferences in favor of increased skills-based visas. But many grassroots voters would accept a trade of the DREAM Act for an improved enforcement infrastructure and a more integration-oriented immigration system.

Many Senate Democrats up for reelection in 2018 would be hard pressed to vote against such a deal. Voting against increased enforcement and moderate legal-immigration reform could cause a reelection headache for senators such as Claire McCaskill and Heidi Heitkamp — making the DREAM Act part of that package would only increase the political pressure. Republicans have a better-than-decent chance of getting to 60 Senate votes to overcome a filibuster on an immigration package if they maintain a unified front and insist that the only way to get to the DREAM Act is through a deal that includes enforcement and legal-immigration reform.

In many ways, the ball is in the court of the immigration maximalists in the GOP: those pro-business Republicans who prioritize increased immigration, whether legal or illegal, over other immigration-policy concerns. If Senate Democrats sense that the Republican caucus is divided, Democrats — not Republicans — will be in the driver’s seat on immigration. Starting with 48 senators in their caucus, the Democrats need help from 12 of the 52 Republicans to hit 60 votes, not too different from the situation facing Republicans, who need eight Democrats. As long as Republican immigration maximalists express a willingness to pass a stand-alone DREAM Act, they give more policy leverage to the Democrats, who would very much love for Republicans to be consumed in a battle about the DREAM Act. Likewise, the more resistance maximalists offer to increased enforcement or legal-immigration reform, the harder they make it for Republicans to deliver for conservative priorities in a DREAM Act deal. If Republican immigration maximalists are willing to compromise and accept moderate reforms to the immigration system, they can strengthen the hand of their fellow Republicans and help grant citizenship to DREAMers. If they refuse to compromise, they risk torpedoing their fellow Republicans in 2018.

But immigration maximalists are not the only players here. In terminating DACA, President Trump has invited this political battle, so the White House has a particular responsibility to be measured and careful in the way it talks about immigration. Polarizing statements will only make it harder to enact center-right immigration reform.

In their botched effort at health-care reform, Republicans both disappointed the grassroots (no repeal despite many pledges of repeal) and frightened swing voters (with bills making large cuts to health-care subsidies). On immigration, Republicans can avoid making the same mistakes. But they will have to forgo open-borders bromides and instead realize that the health of the nation — and conservatism — depends upon strengthened bonds of civic trust and opportunity.

— Fred Bauer is a writer from New England. He blogs at A Certain Enthusiasm.

Texas continues Harvey recovery efforts as Hurricane Irma looms in the Atlantic

CORPUS CRISTI, Tex. — For the first time in the 10 days since Hurricane Harvey made landfall, the Coast Guard did not have to carry out rescue missions in storm-ravaged Southeast Texas on Sunday. Instead, the service began moving a number of helicopters out of Texas and into Puerto Rico, Florida and Georgia, in anticipation of another landfall threat brewing for the U.S. coast: Hurricane Irma.

“As soon as one ends, we need to make sure we are ready for the next event,” Adm. Paul Zukunft, the Coast Guard commandant, said Monday as Irma, already a Category 3 hurricane, churned in the Atlantic. It is still too early to determine exactly where and when Irma will hit, but model forecasts indicate it is increasingly likely to hit the United States. The National Hurricane Center warned in a 5 a.m. update Monday that Irma could directly affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Bahamas and Cuba. A significant percentage of model forecasts have Irma striking the U.S. East Coast as early as Saturday or Sunday, with tropical storm winds arriving in Florida as soon as Friday.

Predictions will improve over the coming days, narrowing in on exactly which part of the coast will endure the season’s next major hurricane.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency is also deploying its resources eastward in advance of Irma, FEMA administrator William “Brock” Long said Sunday on CBS News’“Face the Nation.” Hurricane Harvey, he said, should be a “wake-up call” for local and state officials. He urged them to give emergency management directors the full budgets they need to be prepared for the next disaster.


Judy Mellon, left, is helped by her daughter, Beth Kendrick, as she sorts through items damaged by floodwaters from Tropical Storm Harvey in Houston on Wednesday. (David J. Phillip/AP)

As of Monday morning, officials across the state of Texas had confirmed at least 57 deaths related to Harvey, a tally expected to increase as floodwaters recede and recovery efforts continue. More than 34,000 people were still in shelters, including nearly 7,000 at the George R. Brown Convention Center in Houston. As residents work to return to their homes, many will soon discover the extent of their losses. The Texas Department of Public Safety reported that more than 200,000 homes have been damaged, with more than 13,500 destroyed.

Meanwhile, the region is dealing with a daunting array of environmental problems.

The Environmental Protection Agency reported Sunday that more than 800 wastewater treatment facilities are not fully operational as a result of Hurricane Harvey and the ensuing floods, and that officials are aware of “releases of wastewater from sanitary sewers,” pollution that could cause health risks. The agency hasn’t had access to most of the 13 Superfund sites with toxic materials that were flooded or damaged as a result of the storm.

Thousands of people in Southeast Texas still don’t have safe drinking water, including in Beaumont, a city of 118,000 to the east of Houston. So far, the EPA has found that people who are served by 166 water systems are under boil-water orders as a safety measure and that another 50 water systems have been shut down completely.

On Sunday afternoon, executives of the disabled Arkema chemical plant in Crosby, Tex., had decided to hasten the burning of chemicals left on the site. The Harris County Fire Marshal’s Office said the company decided to be proactive rather than wait for the rest of the chemicals to ignite. Early Monday morning the company announced a 1.5 mile evacuation zone around the Arkema facility had been lifted, and it is safe for residents who live around the chemical plant to return to their homes.

Across Southeast Texas, the soundtrack of recovery is the growl of generators and the buzz of huge fans that are attempting to dry out flooded interiors. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has distributed 15,000 booklets urging people to be vigilant about mold, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency tweeted, “As you clean up after #Harvey, mold control is critical.”


Volunteer Adrienne Adair wears a mask while helping clean up a home destroyed by floodwaters in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey in Spring, Tex. on Sunday. (David J. Phillip/AP)

Signaling potential roadblocks to federal help for Texas, the Trump administration said Sunday that it wants Congress to attach aid for victims of Hurricane Harvey to a bill that would increase the federal debt limit. That puts the White House on a collision course with House conservatives who oppose raising the debt limit and want the Harvey money treated as a separate issue.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on “Fox News Sunday” that if the debt ceiling is not raised, funding to help Texas recover from the hurricane could be delayed.

“Our first priority is to make sure that the state gets money, it is critical, and to do that we need to make sure we raise the debt limit,” he said. “Without raising the debt limit, I’m not comfortable that we will get the money that we need this month to Texas to rebuild.”

If the debt ceiling isn’t raised soon, the U.S. government will not have enough funds to continue operations beyond Sept. 29, Mnuchin has told lawmakers. Appropriating emergency money to help with the Harvey response will accelerate that deadline by several days, he has said.

In addition to needing supplies, food, water and medicine, Houston-area residents also are faced with removing massive amounts of rubbish that needs to be cleared from their damaged homes.


Residents began to return to their homes, flooded by Hurricane Harvey, to start throwing out their destroyed possessions and survey the damage in The Woodlands neighborhood of Houston on Saturday.

Mattresses, carpeting, furniture, ripped-up drywall, and trash bags with ruined personal belongings sit in large piles on lawns and curbside in neighborhoods across this sprawling metropolis. The federal government will pick up most of the cost of debris removal under an amended disaster declaration from Trump, but on Sunday in some neighborhoods there was little sign that anything would be hauled away soon.

In affluent Kingwood Gardens, where homes line a golf course, sturdy fences had been flattened, exposing formerly concealed private patios and swimming pools. Inflatable alligators and inner tubes had been carried off by rushing water and now lay caught in thickets along local creeks.

In Houston, officials hope to have the city open for business as much as possible by Tuesday morning.

“I’m encouraging people to get up and let’s get going,” Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday. “There is still tremendous need. Don’t want to downplay that … but most of the city is dry, and I’m saying to people — if you can open, let’s open up and let’s get started.”

Turner said the focus this week will be on “housing, housing, housing,” especially for low-income and senior residents. He praised President Trump for a “very positive” visit Saturday.

“Come and visit us in one year and I’ll show you a better city than it was before the storm,” Turner said.

On Lake Houston Parkway in Kingwood, Alspaugh’s ACE Hardware store was in cleanup mode after receiving four feet of water, but it was open for business. “ACE is open,” said a board spray-painted in red. “This store is going to be rebuilt better than it ever has been,” said owner Rick Alspaugh.

Alspaugh spray painted the top of two trailers with “God Bless ‘Merica” so helicopters could see his store from overhead. Women working to clean up had placed Texas flags in their ponytails.

“Texas pride,” Alspaugh said. “We’ll get through this.”

Achenbach, Contrera and Larimer reported from Washington. Abigail Hauslohner and Arelis R. Hernandez in Houston and Katie Zezima, Angela Fritz and Hamza Shaban in Washington contributed to this report.


Houston’s George R. Brown Convention Center has become a shelter for those displaced by Harvey. (John Taggart for The Washington Post)

South Korea’s defense minister suggests return of tactical US nuclear weapons

South Korea’s defense minister on Monday said it was worth reviewing the redeployment of American tactical nuclear weapons to the Korean Peninsula to guard against the North, a step that analysts warn would sharply increase the risk of an accidental conflict.

But in New York, Nikki Haley, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said the regime of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was “begging for war.”

And even as concern over Korea deepened following North Korea’s huge nuclear test Sunday,, South Korea’s defense ministry said Monday that Pyongyang might be preparing to launch another missile into the Pacific Ocean, perhaps an intercontinental ballistic missile theoretically capable of reaching the mainland United States.

President Trump and his South Korean counterpart, Moon Jae-in, spoke on the phone for 40 minutes Monday night, Korean time — some 34 hours after the nuclear test and more than 24 hours after Trump took to Twitter to criticize Moon’s “talk of appeasement.”

The two agreed to remove the limit on allowed payloads for South Korean missiles — something Seoul had been pushing for — as a way to increase deterrence against North Korea, according to a read-out of the phone call from South Korea’s Blue House.

They agreed as well to work together to punish North Korea for Sunday’s nuclear test, pledging “to strengthen joint military capabilities,” a White House statement said, and to “maximize pressure on North Korea using all means at their disposal.”

In a later phone call, Trump and German Chancellor Angela Merkel “reaffirmed” the necessity of coordinating a response at the U.N.

At a Security Council meeting, Haley pressed for the “strongest possible” sanctions against the North. The administration plans to circulate a new sanctions draft this week. Haley did not spell out how she would overcome the objections of veto-wielding permanent members China and Russia. 

But she cautioned, “War is never something the United States wants. We don’t want it now. But our country’s patience is not unlimited. We will defend our allies and our territory.”

Haley ruled out the “freeze for freeze” proposal backed by China and Russia, which would suspend U.S. joint military exercises with South Korea in return for suspension of North Korean nuclear and missile tests.

“When a rogue regime has a nuclear weapon and an ICBM pointed at you, you do not take steps to lower your guard. No one would do that. We certainly won’t,” she said.

Instead, she reiterated a White House threat from Sunday to cut off trade with any countries that also trade with North Korea. That would presumably include China, with which the United States had nearly $650 billion worth of trade in goods and services last year.

“The United States will look at every country that does business with North Korea as a country that is giving aid to their reckless and dangerous nuclear intentions,” she said.

Her remarks appeared to be unpersuasive. “China will never allow chaos and war” in Korea, said Liu Jieyi, the Chinese ambassador to the U.N. Sanctions alone will not solve the crisis, Russia’s U.N. ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, said.

Earlier Monday, South Korean Defense Minister Song Young-moo said that he asked his American counterpart, Jim Mattis, during talks at the Pentagon last week for strategic assets like U.S. aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines and B-52 bombers to be sent to South Korea more regularly.

“I told him that it would be good for strategic assets to be sent regularly to the Korean Peninsula and that some South Korean lawmakers and media are strongly pushing for tactical nuclear weapons [to be redeployed],” Song told a parliamentary hearing on North Korea’s nuclear test, without disclosing Mattis’s response. 

A poll that YTN, a cable news channel, commissioned in August found that 68 percent of respondents said they supported bringing tactical nuclear weapons back to South Korea.

“The redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons is an alternative worth a full review,” Song said, echoing a position closely associated with conservatives in South Korea, not progressives like Moon, who was elected president in May after vowing to engage with North Korea.

The United States had about 100 nuclear-armed weapons, including short-range artillery,  stationed in South Korea until 1991. Then President George H.W. Bush signed the Presidential Nuclear Initiative and withdrew all tactical nuclear weapons that had been deployed abroad.

Shortly after, the two Koreas signed an agreement committing to making the peninsula free of nuclear weapons — a deal that North Korea violated by developing its own nuclear arms. But Pyongyang has maintained that Seoul has also broken its promise because remaining under the U.S. nuclear umbrella is tantamount, it says, to having such weapons.

After the defense minister spoke at the hearing, the South Korean president’s office said that it was not considering redeploying tactical nuclear weapons. “Our government’s firm stance on the nuclear-free peninsula remains unchanged,” said Kim Dong-jo, a spokesman for Moon.

Military experts in the United States are almost universally opposed to the idea of deploying strategic or tactical weapons in South Korea.  

“The thing that most concerns me about redeployment is that it introduces more room for miscalculation or unintended escalation,” said Catherine Dill of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, Calif. 

In that situation, the ability to react more quickly could be a negative factor.

From the perspective of the military alliance between the United States and South Korea, having long-range ballistic missiles or strategic bombers is “perfectly sufficient” to continue to deter North Korea, Dill said.

As alliance partners, the United States and South Korean militaries work in close cooperation, regularly conducting drills together. This includes sending “strategic assets” like bombers stationed on the Pacific Island of Guam over South Korea on a regular basis, and having submarines make port calls during exercises.

As the North Korean threat has increased this year, the United States has sent F-35 stealth aircraft and other strike fighters on flyovers across the southern half of the peninsula in a not-so-thinly veiled warning to Kim. U.S. Pacific Command even released photos last week of B-1B Lancers dropping bombs on a range on the southern side of the demilitarized zone that separates the two Koreas.

But a growing number of policymakers in Seoul say that Guam is too far away and that, if it comes under attack from North Korea, South Korea can’t wait the two-plus hours it would take American bombers to arrive from their base in the Pacific. 

“We need these strategic or tactical assets that can destroy North Korea’s nuclear-capable missiles before they can inflict harm on us,” said Chun Yung-woo, a former South Korean national security adviser. 

“Right now they can retaliate but by that time, tens of thousands of people might have been killed,” Chun said. “We need a first layer of offensive weapons stationed closer to North Korea’s nuclear and missile sites.”

Jon Wolfsthal, a nuclear expert who served on President Barack Obama’s national security council, said that in the South Korean context, “strategic assets” were all about giving “a tangible sense of reassurance” to the government in Seoul.

“The reassurance bucket is bottomless,” Wolfsthal said. “You can pour stuff into it and it’s never going to fill up.”

South Korean officials have been asking for fighter jets and ballistic missile-equipped submarines to be based on the peninsula, and have long wanted B-1Bs and B-52s to land rather than just fly over — all to give a sense of greater sense of commitment to South Korea.

But there are good logistical reasons why that can’t happen, said Wolfsthal. For one, South Korea doesn’t have airstrips long enough for big, heavy B-52s, and second, the U.S. does not want its high-tech fighter jets sitting within North Korean artillery range.

South Korea has been also flexing its military muscles by itself in response to North Korea’s provocations, practicing for strikes on the North Korean nuclear test site at Punggye-ri at dawn Monday.

The South Korean air force would stage a live-fire drill, launching Taurus air-to-surface guided missiles from F-15K fighter jets, later this month, the defense ministry said Monday. The missiles have a range of 300 miles — enough to carry out precision strikes on North Korea’s key nuclear and missile sites.

The ministry also said it had seen signs of preparation for another ballistic missile launch and South Korea’s national intelligence service told lawmakers that it could be another intercontinental ballistic missile.

Yoonjung Seo in Seoul and Anne Gearan in Washington contributed to this report.

Mocking the first lady’s shoes or looks is a low blow that’s antithetical to feminism

The position of first lady is an utterly thankless one. If she wades into policy, she’ll be greeted with an angry backlash because she’s unelected. Much like what people expect of British royalty, we want first ladies to show up and look pretty. But this week proves that for the wife of the media’s Most Hated President™, looking pretty in and of itself could be an inexcusable offense.

After Hurricane Harvey hit Houston, President Donald Trump decided to take a flight to Texas, and his wife Melania boarded Marine One in high heels. When she arrived in Corpus Christi, she’d already changed to a “sensible” outfit and sneakers, but alas, it was too late.

RELATED: Instead of seeing the good in Melania Trump’s Texas visit, the internet mocked her shoes

“Melania Trump’s Hurricane Stilettos, and the White House’s Continual Failure to Understand Optics,” blared a headline from Vogue.

“[W]hy, oh why, can’t this administration get anything, even a pair of shoes, right?” the article complained.

Melania Trump Rocks Flawless Emergency Aid Look En Route to Texas,” mocked the feminist site Jezebel. “Melania Trump has bravely opted to survey the Harvey damage in aviator sunglasses, a flawless blowout, a silky olive green bomber jacket with what appears to be limited water repellent capabilities, and actual stilts.”

Feminists should be committed to substance over appearances, and mocking a woman who holds a ceremonial position for wearing heels while boarding an airplane really encapsulates the increasingly out-of-touch, shrill tone of the left.

And here’s the real catch-22 that women everywhere understand: what was the first lady supposed to do? Wear dirty, rumpled clothing so she’d blend in with the hurricane victims?

When was the last time you saw the U.K.’s Duchess Kate mocked for showing up looking like, well, royalty?

Our first ladies aren’t royalty, of course. Consequently, we hold very different standards for them that mean we pillory them no matter what they do or don’t do. First Lady Michelle Obama was criticized for wearing sneakers when she volunteered at a Washington, D.C. food bank — because the shoes were too expensive.

“Michelle’s Pricey Sneakers Raise Eyebrows,” declared CBS News in an article about her $540 Lanvin sneakers.

Now, Melania Trump did not repeat that mistake, and showed up in Corpus Christi wearing Classic Adidas sneakers that cost $60, according to IJ Review. There were no story corrections issued or articles written praising her cost conscious and “appropriate” shoe choice.

RELATED: Lakewood Church in Houston is overrun — with donations and volunteer support

That’s because that’s not what this sartorial censure is really about. Melania’s fashion critics hate her husband, and so they pounce on anything about her that they can criticize, even something as inconsequential as her appearance.

Has the country run out of substantive issues to discuss and policies to criticize? In the midst of a devastating hurricane destroying Houston, one would think that Melania’s footwear rated somewhere between “not at all” and “absolute zero” on the scale of importance.

Mocking the first lady’s shoes or looks isn’t just a low blow — it’s the antithesis of feminism and the last refuge of the desperate.

‘We’ll see,’ Trump says on potentially attacking North Korea over its nuclear test

President Trump signaled Sunday that he was not ruling out a retaliatory strike against North Korea in response to the isolated country’s overnight nuclear test, which he called “very hostile and dangerous to the United States.”

Asked as he left church services whether he was planning to attack North Korea after a nuclear test that defied his blunt warnings, Trump told reporters, “We’ll see.”

Trump’s response to North Korea’s announcement that it had detonated a hydrogen bomb that could be attached to a missile capable of reaching the mainland United States included an admonishment of South Korea for its handling of the crisis.

Trump is convening a meeting of his national security team later Sunday to discuss the U.S. strategy, while Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he is drawing up tough new economic sanctions to further isolate North Korea.

In a pair of tweets issued Sunday morning, Trump wrote: “North Korea has conducted a major Nuclear Test. Their words and actions continue to be very hostile and dangerous to the United States . . . North Korea is a rogue nation which has become a great threat and embarrassment to China, which is trying to help but with little success.”

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is running a “rogue nation,” President Trump said. (Saul Loeb; Ed Jones/AFP/Getty Images)

Trump also scolded South Korea, a longtime U.S. ally, stating, “South Korea is finding, as I have told them, that their talk of appeasement with North Korea will not work, they only understand one thing!”

Trump warned in a fourth tweet, “The United States is considering, in addition to other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea.”

He said he would be meeting with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, White House chief of staff John F. Kelly and other military leaders to discuss options.

“The national security team is monitoring this closely,” White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders told reporters. “The president and his national security team will have a meeting to discuss further later today. We will provide updates as necessary.”

After speaking with Trump on Sunday morning, Mnuchin called North Korea’s nuclear test “unacceptable behavior” and said the United States was likely to impose stricter sanctions on Kim Jong Un’s government and further pressure China, in particular, to “cut off” North Korea.

“We’ve already started with sanctions against North Korea, but I’m going to draft a sanctions package to send to the president for his strong consideration that anybody who wants to do trade or business with them is prevented from doing trade or business with us,” Mnuchin said on “Fox News Sunday.”

“We are going to work with our allies, we’ll work with China, but people need to cut off North Korea economically. This is unacceptable behavior.”

The tumult in the region comes amid escalating economic tensions with South Korea. Trump is considering withdrawing from a free-trade agreement with South Korea, a long-standing economic and diplomatic partner of the United States.

The move would be in keeping with Trump’s campaign promise to end what he considers unfair trade competition from other countries, but the president’s advisers have cautioned a withdrawal from the agreement would strain ties with South Korea amid the mounting North Korea nuclear crisis.

Asked by Fox anchor Chris Wallace whether Trump would pull the United States out of the agreement, Mnuchin said, “The president has made clear that where we have trade deficits with countries, we’re going to renegotiate those deals.” He added that there have been “no decisions” yet with regard to the trade accord with South Korea.

North Korea’s nuclear test came just a few hours after Trump spoke with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a key ally in the region.

In a Saturday evening phone call, the two leaders discussed “ongoing efforts to maximize pressure on North Korea,” according to the White House.

“The two leaders reaffirmed the importance of close cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea in the face of the growing threat from North Korea,” read a statement from the White House.

Trump also spoke recently with South Korean President Moon Jae-in. In a call on Friday, the two leaders talked about “our coordinated response to North Korea’s continued destabilizing and escalatory behavior,” according to the White House, which said Trump and Moon agreed conceptually to South Korea purchasing billions of dollars in U.S. military equipment.

North Korea’s testing of its most powerful nuclear device yet comes just 3 1 / 2 weeks after Trump warned Kim that his continued nuclear provocations would be “met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.”

Initially, North Korea seemed to back down from its threat of a nuclear strike in Guam, where many U.S. military are stationed. Trump said of Kim at an Aug. 22 rally in Phoenix, “I respect the fact that, I believe, he is starting to respect us.”

That assessment turned out to be premature. North Korea’s test this weekend drew alarm from both Republican and Democratic lawmakers.

“North Korea right now is the most dangerous place on the face of the planet,” Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) said on ABC’s “This Week.” Cruz said of Kim, “He is radical, he is unpredictable, he is extreme, and he is getting more and more dangerous weapons.”

Although Cruz said he would chose his words differently than Trump, the senator defended the president’s bellicose rhetoric.

“I think the president is right that Kim Jong Un and other bullies only understand and respect strength, that weakness, that appeasement encourages this action,” Cruz told ABC anchor Martha Raddatz.

Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Tex.) differed, saying Trump’s rhetoric is inadvisable.

“I don’t think that it’s helpful to get into a Twitter shouting match with a 32-year-old dictator, Kim Jong Un, in North Korea,” Castro told Raddatz in a separate interview. He said Trump should “let his diplomats and his military generals and others handle this situation.”

Gen. Michael Hayden, a former director of the CIA and the National Security Agency, stressed that Trump’s tweets are fouling up his otherwise respectable plan to get tough on North Korea.

“You gotta watch the tweets,” Hayden said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “Mr. President, this is not a manhood issue; this is a national security issue. Don’t let your pride get in the way of wise policy here.”

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) said he spoke Sunday morning with Kelly about the situation.

“We stand ready to work with the administration to support a comprehensive strategy that not only places an emphasis on deterrence but also empowers our allies and partners in the region, who must do more to confront this threat,” Corker said in a statement.

Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) said that “there are no good options” to manage the North Korea crisis but that “harsh rhetoric” does not appear to help slow Kim’s nuclear program.

Flake said that ending the U.S.-South Korea trade agreement, as Trump is considering, would be inadvisable.

“I don’t think that that would be good in any circumstances,” Flake said on CNN. “Now it’s particularly troubling given what South Korea is faced with. I think we need to do more trade, not less, and withdrawing from trade agreements is a very troubling sign.”

Karoun Demirjian and Hamza Shaban contributed to this report.

Hurricane Irma now a Category 2, remains "powerful" storm

Far out over the Atlantic, Hurricane Irma was expected to remain a powerful storm throughout the weekend while following a course that could bring it near the eastern Caribbean Sea by early next week.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Saturday morning that the storm “continues to fluctuate in strength but remains a powerful hurricane.” Irma now has maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, the NHC said.

Irma had strengthened to a Category 3 on Thursday, with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph.

The storm is located about 1,320 miles east of the Leeward Islands in the Caribbean and moving toward the west at 14 mph. It is expected to move toward the west-southwest over the next several days, the NHC said.

Forecasters said Irma was expected to “remain a powerful hurricane into early next week.” No coastal watches or warnings were in effect.

Irma formed on the heels of Hurricane Harvey, which struck the Gulf Coast of Texas Aug. 26. Thousands have been displaced by the storm due to torrential rain and flooding. 

irma.png

A “forecast cone” showing the probable path of the storm center of Hurricane Irma, as of the morning of Saturday, Sept. 2, 2017.

Tropical Storm Lidia

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Lidia marched up Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula on Saturday, dumping more heavy rains on a region where it has already flooded streets and homes, stranded tourists and left at least four people dead.

Authorities said the death toll could rise over the weekend as emergency crews surveyed the damage in villages with ramshackle homes. One person was considered missing and video broadcast on local networks showed vehicles being swept away by flooded rivers.

MEXICO-TROPICAL STORM-LIDIA

Destroyed cars and debris caused heavy rains following the passage of tropical storm Lidia in Los Cabos, Baja California, Mexico on September 1, 2017. 

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Lidia made landfall early Friday west of La Paz, the capital of Baja California Sur state. 

Lidia’s wind strength had eased to 45 mph Saturday morning, and further weakening was forecast. The center said Lidia was expected to become a remnant low pressure system by Sunday.

The storm was centered about 70 miles east-southeast of Punta Eugenia and was heading northwest at about 12 mph. 

Lidia earlier spread rains over a broad swath of Mexico including the capital, where it was blamed for flooding that briefly closed the city’s airport this week.

 

‘This is crazy,’ sobs Utah hospital nurse as cop roughs her up, arrests her for doing her job

By all accounts, the head nurse at the University of Utah Hospital’s burn unit was professional and restrained when she told a Salt Lake City police detective he wasn’t allowed to draw blood from a badly injured patient.

The detective didn’t have a warrant, first off. And the patient wasn’t conscious, so he couldn’t give consent. Without that, the detective was barred from collecting blood samples — not just by hospital policy, but by basic constitutional law.

Still, Detective Jeff Payne insisted that he be let in to take the blood, saying the nurse would be arrested and charged if she refused.

Nurse Alex Wubbels politely stood her ground. She got her supervisor on the phone so Payne could hear the decision loud and clear. “Sir,” said the supervisor, “you’re making a huge mistake because you’re threatening a nurse.”

Payne snapped. He seized hold of the nurse, shoved her out of the building and cuffed her hands behind her back. A bewildered Wubbels screamed “help me” and “you’re assaulting me” as the detective forced her into an unmarked car and accused her of interfering with an investigation.

On Friday, Salt Lake County District Attorney Sim Gill said he wanted a criminal investigation into the incident. Salt Lake Mayor Jackie Biskupski and Police Chief Mike Brown apologized to the nurse in a statement. “I extend a personal apology to Ms. Wubbels for what she has been through for simply doing her job,” the mayor said.

The explosive July 26 encounter was captured on officers’ body cameras and is now the subject of an internal investigation by the police department, as the Salt Lake Tribune reported. The videos were released by the Tribune, the Deseret News and other local media.

On top of that, Wubbels was right. The U.S. Supreme Court has explicitly ruled that blood can only be drawn from drivers for probable cause, with a warrant.

Wubbels, who was not criminally charged, played the footage at a news conference Thursday with her attorney. They called on police to rethink their treatment of hospital workers and said they had not ruled out legal action.

“I just feel betrayed, I feel angry, I feel a lot of things,” Wubbels said. “And I’m still confused.”

Salt Lake police spokesman Sgt. Brandon Shearer initially told local media that Payne had been suspended from the department’s blood draw unit but remained on active duty. But late Friday, the police department’s Twitter feed said that Payne and another unnamed officer had been placed on administrative leave.

It all started when a suspect speeding away from police in a pickup truck on a local highway smashed head-on into a truck driver, as local media reported. Medics sedated the truck driver, who was severely burned, and took him to the University of Utah Hospital. He arrived in a comatose state, according to the Deseret News. The suspect died in the crash.

A neighboring police department sent Payne, a trained police phlebotomist, to collect blood from the patient and check for illicit substances, as the Tribune reported. The goal was reportedly to protect the trucker, who was not suspected of a crime. His lieutenant ordered him to arrest Wubbels if she refused to let him draw a sample, according to the Tribune.

A Salt Lake City police detective handcuffed a nurse after she prevented him from collecting blood from an unconscious patient. (Screen grab via Deseret News)

A 19-minute video from the body camera of a fellow officer shows the bitter argument that unfolded on the floor of the hospital’s burn unit. (Things get especially rough around the 6-minute mark).

A group of hospital officials, security guards and nurses are seen pacing nervously in the ward. Payne can be seen standing in a doorway, arms folded over his black polo shirt, waiting as hospital officials talk on the phone.

“So why don’t we just write a search warrant,” the officer wearing the body camera says to Payne.

“They don’t have PC,” Payne responds, using the abbreviation for probable cause, which police must have to get a warrant for search and seizure. He adds that he plans to arrest the nurse if she doesn’t allow him to draw blood. “I’ve never gone this far,” he says.

After several minutes, Wubbels shows Payne and the other officer a printout of the hospital’s policy on obtaining blood samples from patients. With her supervisor on speakerphone, she calmly tells them they can’t proceed unless they have a warrant or patient consent, or if the patient is under arrest.

“The patient can’t consent, he’s told me repeatedly that he doesn’t have a warrant, and the patient is not under arrest,” she says. “So I’m just trying to do what I’m supposed to do, that’s all.”

“So I take it without those in place, I’m not going to get blood,” Payne says.

Wubbels’s supervisor chimes in on the speakerphone. “Why are you blaming the messenger,” he asks Payne.

“She’s the one that has told me no,” the officer responds.

“Sir, you’re making a huge mistake because you’re threatening a nurse,” Wubbels’s supervisor says over the phone.

At that point, Payne seems to lose it.

He paces toward the nurse and tries to swat the phone out of her hand. “We’re done here,” he yells. He grabs Wubbels by the arms and shoves her through the automatic doors outside the building.

Wubbels screams. “Help! Help me! Stop! You’re assaulting me! Stop! I’ve done nothing wrong! This is crazy!”

Payne presses her into a wall, pulls her arms behind her back and handcuffs her. Two hospital officials tell him to stop, that she’s doing her job, but he ignores them.

“I can’t believe this! What is happening?” Wubbels says through tears as the detective straps her into the front seat of his car.

Another officer arrives and tells her she should have allowed Payne to collect the samples he asked for. He says she obstructed justice and prevented Payne from doing his job.

“I’m also obligated to my patients,” she tells the officer. “It’s not up to me.”

In Thursday’s news conference, Wubbels’s attorney Karra Porter said that Payne believed he was authorized to collect the blood under “implied consent,” according to the Tribune. But Porter said “implied consent” law changed in Utah a decade ago. And in 2016, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that warrantless blood tests were illegal. Porter called Wubbels’s arrest unlawful.

“The law is well-established. And it’s not what we were hearing in the video,” she said. “I don’t know what was driving this situation.”

Wubbels has worked as a nurse at the hospital since 2009, according to the Tribune. She was previously an Alpine skier who competed under her maiden name in the 1998 and 2002 Winter Olympics.

As a health-care worker, she said it was her job to keep her patients safe.

“A blood draw, it just gets thrown around like it’s some simple thing,” she said, according to the Deseret News. “But your blood is your blood. That’s your property.”

For now, Wubbels is not taking any legal action against police. But she’s not ruling it out.

“I want to see people do the right thing first and I want to see this be a civil discourse,” she said Thursday, according to the Deseret News. “If that’s not something that’s going to happen and there is refusal to acknowledge the need for growth and the need for re-education, then we will likely be forced to take that type of step. But people need to know that this is out there.”

This story has been updated. 

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