The National Hurricane Center on Wednesday again increased the chances that the next tropical depression of the season will form — possibly later today — and it is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico.
The system, called Invest 90L for now, was a broad area of low pressure in the southwest Caribbean as of Wednesday morning.
In addition to Invest 90L, there is another tropical wave near Florida that is not expected to develop. (NHC)
It continues to show signs of getting more organized, and forecasters said a tropical depression is likely to develop as soon as today.
The Air Force Reserve’s Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to take a closer look at the system this afternoon.
Invest 90L is forecast to move slowly northwestward near or across parts of Honduras and Nicaragua, then into the northwest Caribbean and into the southern Gulf by Saturday, the hurricane center said.
After that it’s highly uncertain where it could go — except north.
Computer forecast models show potential landfall points from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
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The National Weather Service office in Mobile is also watching the system and said it’s still far too early to say where it will go — and how strong it will be when it gets here.
Forecasters said an area of strong high pressure over the western Atlantic and Southeast will influence the system’s path.
For Invest 90L to move northward toward the northern Gulf Coast there will need to be a weakness in that ridge.
That weakness could come from another tropical wave that was located near southern Florida on Wednesday morning.
Forecasters will be closely watching that wave’s path, because it could affect where Invest 90L eventually goes.
Computer models are not of one mind on where the weaker wave will end up.
It could track west, which could produce a weakness in the central Gulf, and Invest 90L could track northward toward the central Gulf Coast, the weather service said.
If the weaker wave moves north over the Florida peninsula, Invest 90L could take a more northeasterly track into the eastern Gulf, forecasters said.
“The more westerly track would provide us with strengthening onshore flow and wet weather over the weekend, while the eastern track would provide us with more of an offshore flow and dry weather,” the weather service said.
Data from the Hurricane Hunters will be important to pinpoint the center of the system and gauge its strength. That information will also be fed into computer models as they plot its track.
The next name on the storm list is Nate.